{"id":393286,"date":"2026-01-05T14:33:17","date_gmt":"2026-01-05T14:33:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/393286\/"},"modified":"2026-01-05T14:33:17","modified_gmt":"2026-01-05T14:33:17","slug":"figuring-out-paul-mcneil-jr","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/393286\/","title":{"rendered":"Figuring Out Paul McNeil Jr."},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Art by Lilly Cooper | Pictures property of their respective owners<\/p>\n

When I first watched Paul McNeil Jr.<\/a> at the college level, I was a little bit confused. The NC State guard, who was a freshman at the time but is now a sophomore, has a wiry build at 6\u20195\u201d and 190 pounds. He looked on the skinny side, but he did a lot of the good stuff you\u2019d expect from a guy with that physical profile. He exploded onto radars late in his inaugural campaign with the Wolfpack thanks to his microwave scoring ability, namely, a 24-point outing against Wake Forest. He could generate separation and convert on the classic \u201cpro shot-maker\u201d types of attempts. But what really threw me was some of his tendencies. While his frame did lead to some issues on defense, and he was far more perimeter-oriented on offense, he had a level of competitiveness that resonated with me. It showed up on the glass, where in a small role, he managed to register a 9.2 ORB% that flew in the face of what you\u2019d expect for someone his size and archetype. Because he played limited minutes, he was a good bet to return to school, so I thought to myself, \u201cFiguring this out will be a next year problem.\u201d<\/p>\n

For me, a lot of scouting is about pattern recognition. One-to-one player comparisons can be problematic. On one hand, they can set too lofty expectations for a prospect. Too many forwards who struggled with their jumpers but played good defense and could pass\/dribble a little bit have been compared to Draymond Green. But if a player is only 50-to-75 percent as good as Green in a number of critical areas, that\u2019s not Draymond Green. In fact, in many cases, these guys ended up barely scratching replacement level, because Green wasn\u2019t just competent in those areas, he was excellent. Conversely, they can also undershoot what a player is capable of becoming. I had Jalen Williams higher than most, but still undersold what he would turn into, because I viewed him as, \u201cwhat if Ayo Dosunmu was really big?\u201d Both were big for the role they played on their college team, played good defense, got to the rim a lot, and made their catch-and-shoot threes. I sort of pigeonholed Williams into being a good bench player, largely because he was a mid-major upperclassman. I didn\u2019t compensate enough for how potent an athlete he was and how meaningful that size difference was going to be on both sides of the ball. <\/p>\n

But when I really struggle is with the guys who feel different. I\u2019ve long had a harder time assessing players who don\u2019t fit as neatly into boxes. I\u2019ve zigged and zagged on this over the years. With players like Leonard Miller, I shot too high on how quickly his motor and rebounding would lead to production. With a Reed Sheppard, I felt like I shot just right, betting that ultimately his shooting, feel, and defensive playmaking would allow him to become a super valuable contributor. With Brandin Podziemski, I went too low, over-indexing on what I believed would be physical shortcomings. <\/p>\n

This brings me back to Paul McNeil Jr. Today, we\u2019re going to talk about his game, but I\u2019m also going to try to figure out what he approximates and how I should be valuing what he brings to the table. Let\u2019s dig into his game, and then we\u2019ll contextualize the data.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Paul McNeil\u2019s greatest offensive strength is his three-point scoring. So far this season, he\u2019s drained 41.7% of his threes on a gaudy 15.6 attempts per 100 possessions. He\u2019s dynamite both pulling and off the catch. Plus, he has a deep range on his shot, so he\u2019s not a guy who will have to go through a serious readjustment process with regard to the NBA line. What I love most about his shot, and you can see in the video above, is McNeil\u2019s ability to quickly get his balance under him. Whether he\u2019s quickly pulling up because a defender made the mistake of going under a ball screen against him or he\u2019s flying into his shot off movement, McNeil does a stellar job with his gather footwork to ensure he has a steady base under him while not compensating with regard to his pop time. He manages to remain in complete control of his body even when operating at warp speed. This ability to get into his shot both quickly and cleanly should bode well for when he has to deal with the best athletes in the sport trying to contest his jumpers. <\/p>\n

Inside the arc, things are a bit of a mixed bag. McNeil doesn\u2019t get to the rim very often, which isn\u2019t abnormal for someone who shoots as many threes as he does. It can be frustrating at times, as he\u2019ll take difficult, off-balance pull-ups that rim out. Still, he\u2019s also displayed impressive displays of shot-making at times. He\u2019s three-for-six at the rim in the halfcourt this year, per Synergy. At times, his size betrays him, as he isn\u2019t someone who can drive rim protectors backwards to finish through contact. Still, he\u2019s far from averse to physicality (.399 FTr), and at times, he\u2019s able to string together dribble combinations that make defenders miss on his way to the cup. For me, McNeil\u2019s interior scoring game is one of the trickier parts of his game to pin down and project, simply because we haven\u2019t seen a lot of it. If he can continue to fill out his frame and actualize his mid-range game a bit more, he could be cooking with gas. However, if he\u2019s someone who struggles at the rim and can\u2019t find consistent results, he could run into trouble, as we\u2019ve seen with someone like Bub Carrington during his cold stretches with the Wizards. I\u2019ll be monitoring this area of his game closely throughout conference play.<\/p>\n

Paul McNeil Jr.\u2019s playmaking isn\u2019t the easiest thing to assess, either. I\u2019m going to throw some numbers at you, and I\u2019m going to ask that you remain calm as you read them. McNeil is averaging under one assist per game, and he has a 6.3 AST%. He\u2019s primarily utilized as an off-ball weapon, which, from a basketball standpoint, makes a ton of sense within NC State\u2019s context. For starters, we already know that McNeil is a deadly off-ball shooter. But when you factor in the sheer number of steady, reliable table setters that the Wolfpack have on their roster, it makes even more sense. Guys like Darrion Williams, Quadir Copeland, and Tre Holloman are all most comfortable playing with the ball in their hands, reading the floor, and finding the open man. In a lot of settings, I\u2019d be concerned about someone who\u2019s built more like a combo guard playing off the ball so often, but within NC State\u2019s context, I don\u2019t believe it\u2019s a fair criticism to make of McNeil. It\u2019s not so much that McNeil isn\u2019t capable of displacing other options; it\u2019s more so that the way he\u2019s used best maximizes the roster\u2019s chances to win basketball games. If it makes you feel any better, he had a 20.1 AST% last season when he was on the ball more often. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

There are some positives and negatives on the tape. At his best, McNeil is able to leverage his scoring gravity to get inside, play off of two feet, and find openings on the move. He\u2019s also a reliable \u201cnext one\u201d skip passer who doesn\u2019t halt the flow of the offense. Other times, I have some doubts about his handle, as he can let his dribble get away from him or have issues staying under control in tight spaces. His pick-and-roll playmaking can be inconsistent. He has a bad habit of picking up his dribble pretty quickly against pressure, which can put him in some tough spots, but he ultimately does a great job of avoiding turnovers. He also has a good knack for making simple decisions quickly when he draws two on the ball. McNeil is probably more reliable than his pure assist numbers and rates indicate. He takes really good care of the ball, boasting a microscopic 3.0 TOV% this year after limiting himself to a 7.5 TOV% last year. Still, he\u2019s not the most advanced playmaker. We haven\u2019t seen a ton of dynamism in his handle or advanced reads at this point, but again, that could be a symptom of his role rather than an indictment of his game.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On defense, Paul McNeil Jr. runs into the issues one would expect given his frame. Because he\u2019s thin through his lower half, he can be driven backwards fairly easily. Additionally, he has some technical woes guarding the ball. For starters, he tends to cede more ground than he should, allowing opponents to get inside without much resistance. He also doesn\u2019t do the best job of staying square, instead opening up his hips to allow for easy driving lanes to the basket. His 1.7 STL% and 1.5 BLK% are far from anything to write home about. <\/p>\n

Still, I wouldn\u2019t be so quick to throw him under the bus as a negative defender. He has great speed through his feet. I also really appreciate the level of \u201cwant to\u201d that McNeil competes with. He\u2019s clearly attentive, doing a good job of managing man and ball for the most part, even if he has the occasional lapse on a rotation. He seems to understand basic help principles, like when to be at the nail. The steals he collects come in combination from his engagement, length, and athleticism. Plus, he\u2019s a super competitive rebounder, posting a 15.1 DRB% that you don\u2019t come by often for a player in his mold. The tools, attentiveness, and motor are there, even if refinement is needed in some areas.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s get the negative stuff out of the way first, and then we\u2019ll get into the optimism. I fear overvaluing Paul McNeil Jr. for the following:<\/p>\n

He does very little inside the arc.<\/p>\n

He hasn\u2019t shown that he can be a playmaker on respectable volume for a good team.<\/p>\n

His stock rates leave a lot to be desired.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s dive into players who had similar issues. To be more specific, productive players who dealt with similar issues. While McNeil may struggle in these respects, it\u2019s important to make sure we\u2019re looking at him within the context of other players who were in the vicinity of an NBA opportunity. McNeil had a 7.4 BPM in a limited role last year and a 9.8 BPM this year. There are always outliers (Ajay Mitchell had a BPM of 5.0 in his final college season, for instance), but usually, you want to see at least a BPM of around 6.0 for serious prospects, so that\u2019s where I\u2019m setting the cutoff today. I\u2019ll also be limiting the query to players from within the last ten years, so that we\u2019re dealing with a more up-to-date playstyle, generally speaking. <\/p>\n

6\u20196\u201d-and-Under Players Who Did Little Inside the Arc<\/p>\n

What I have here is a list of productive college players from the last ten years who shot under 90 twos while operating as high-volume three-point scorers. I chose 90 two-point attempts because that\u2019s on pace to be a bit over where McNeil will finish the year if his shot diet remains the same.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

That\u2019s\u2026not awesome. The big success story there is Isaiah Joe, who has gone on to be an important role player for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Armoni Brooks is a guy who got a cup of coffee in the league. The jury remains out on recent draft pick Koby Brea, though he\u2019s had a rocky start in the G League this year. But by and large, this type of shot diet we\u2019re seeing from Paul McNeil isn\u2019t a common one among long-term NBA players. The good news, though, is that he\u2019d be second on that list in three-point volume and second in usage, so there\u2019s an argument to be made that the prolific nature of his shooting could provide greater value than those who didn\u2019t manage to catch on. He also has two dunks on the year already, which fifteen players on that list didn\u2019t manage to do in their similar seasons. <\/p>\n

Sub-6\u20196\u201d Players with Low Playmaking Volume<\/p>\n

Here, I looked at players 6\u20195\u201d and under who carried a usage rate below 22 and an assist rate under 10. Again, it is worth mentioning that McNeil had a 23.7 USG% and a 20.1 AST% last season, though he played limited minutes for a subpar team. <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Again, we don\u2019t have the best list in the world at our disposal. There are some \u201ccup of coffee\u201d guys like Armoni Brooks, Adam Flagler, and even a long-term role player in Bryn Forbes. There\u2019s also Will Richard during his pre-draft season. If there\u2019s a reason for optimism here, it\u2019s Will Richard. I think his case is particularly insightful here, as it\u2019s probably the most similar to McNeil\u2019s. In the transfer portal era, guys like Richard and McNeil are often pushed into smaller roles on great teams, whereas in the past, they would\u2019ve likely ended up being THE DUDE somewhere. Can you imagine what Will Richard would\u2019ve done as a senior at Belmont if he\u2019d stayed there all four years? I doubt his usage load would\u2019ve been so small. But in the transfer portal era, sometimes really good players will end up\u2026playing with a lot of other really good players, some of whom are more comfortable operating with the ball in their hands. As a result, good coaches will find ways to maximize their rosters, and it may result in players doing less than they\u2019re capable of at times. Now, to be fair, Richard had a much sturdier frame, he was a much better interior scorer, and he produced more on defense. I\u2019m not saying they\u2019re the same player, but I\u2019m saying there\u2019s a case to be made that their circumstances led to similarly stifled playmaking production. <\/p>\n

Sub-6\u20196\u201d Players with Lackluster Stock Rates<\/p>\n

For this query, I looked at productive young college players who were on the smaller side that offered little in the way of defensive production.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

This is actually a great list for Paul McNeil\u2019s case. Sure, some of these guys didn\u2019t do much at the next level. But prolific perimeter shot-makers like Jamal Murray, Tyler Herro, Malik Monk, Jared McCain, Coby White, and Immanuel Quickly all turning up here gives plenty of room for encouragement. I\u2019ll still give the caveat that many of them carried a larger usage burden and did more inside the arc than McNeil is likely to this season, but it\u2019s still encouraging to see that players within a similar mold have managed to provide value at the NBA level in spite of their shortcomings as defensive disruptors. <\/p>\n

Now, let\u2019s turn the tables a little bit. Instead of focusing on where McNeil has struggled, let\u2019s take a look at where he\u2019s thriving.<\/p>\n

Threes and Free Throws<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Here, I looked for efficient three-point bombers who managed to get to the line and play productive basketball as high-major underclassmen, just like McNeil. Simply put, it doesn\u2019t happen very often. McNeil\u2019s length differentiates him from Edwards and Cattoor, too. Threes and free throws are two of the best shots in basketball. Guys who can get them and hit them at volume come at a premium, and that\u2019s what McNeil is bringing to the table.<\/p>\n

Threes and Turnover Aversion<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Look, not everyone on this list has panned out. But one of the biggest trends I\u2019ve noticed among players who initially cut their teeth as off-ball connectors and shooters is that they do a great job of avoiding turnovers. Players like Cam Spencer, Sam Hauser, Bryn Forbes, Trey Murphy, and Jaylen Wells didn\u2019t enter the NBA with the deepest creation bags in the world. That said, they were really good at not screwing up. While there are differences between McNeil and those listed, it\u2019s also worth noting that McNeil is on pace to be the only freshman since 2016 to shoot so many threes so efficiently while keeping a turnover rate below ten. The microscopic nature of his 3.0 TOV% cannot be overstated, especially when you consider that even when he was on the ball more last year, his turnover rate was still super low at 7.5%. <\/p>\n

Threes and Rebounding<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Another thing that I like about McNeil is how he contributes to the possession battle through his rebounding. A lot of shooting specialists, well, just shoot. While McNeil hasn\u2019t been as much of a menace on the offensive glass this year as he was last year, he\u2019s still an above-average offensive rebounder for his position this season (2.6 ORB%). Additionally, he\u2019s gained ground on the defensive end with his 15.1 DRB%. We haven\u2019t seen a lot of high-major underclassmen who can both shoot threes and contribute on the glass like this in the past decade. <\/p>\n

I still don\u2019t feel like I have Paul McNeil Jr. totally figured out, and I can live with that. It\u2019s highly unlikely that anyone will ever be able to map professional outcomes onto prospects without any error. What I ultimately wanted to figure out here, though, was if his unorthodox production was more likely indicate that he\u2019s on the right or wrong side of the NBA cliff. <\/p>\n

There is some worrying stuff. His lack of an interior scoring threat, subpar stock rates, and mundane playmaking portfolio certainly leave something to be desired. Still, there are players cut from similar cloth both stylistically and situationally who\u2019ve managed to get over these same hurdles in the past. Additionally, I\u2019ve gained a new appreciation for the rarity of his overall production, shooting profile, foul drawing, rebounding, and turnover aversion as a young player in a great conference. <\/p>\n

In the NIL era, I generally view most prospects as more likely to return to school than not. Still, I think it\u2019s important to ask myself where I would rank a prospect if they were to stay in the draft, because you never know. When it comes to McNeil, I can\u2019t quite bring myself to be as excited about some of his most ardent supporters. But at this stage, I think a late-first, early-second type of swing on McNeil is more than justifiable. For one, he has an NBA-level trait with his shooting. I love the numbers, and I love the film. He takes a ton of difficult threes, he makes a great percentage of them, and his mechanics have me encouraged that it will work at the next level. From there, McNeil\u2019s ability to take care of the ball, draw fouls, compete on the boards, and work on defense helps me to see where he can create value at the next level. I was skeptical about Paul McNeil going into this exercise, but now, I\u2019m more optimistic that he may indeed be the real deal. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Since we just submitted our internal big board rankings, I wanted to spend this week\u2019s Quick Hits section covering some of my favorite \u201cundervalued\u201d prospects.<\/p>\n

Excuse me, but shouldn\u2019t we be talking more about Joshua Jefferson<\/a>? Iowa State\u2019s 6\u20198\u201d senior was already interesting entering the season thanks to his high level of feel, ridiculous passing bag, and defensive versatility. But he\u2019s really figured out how to score it this season. Jefferson has been tasked with creating a ton of offense for the Cyclones this season, as evidenced by his 26.7 USG%. In spite of that, he\u2019s posting a career high 63.5 TS%! Look, I get it if you don\u2019t think he\u2019s going to sustain his 42.4% mark from three, I don\u2019t think he will either. But Jefferson is scoring more effectively inside the arc, too, going a career-high 59% on twos. He\u2019s also long been a good foul drawer and free-throw shooter. I think he\u2019s the total package and a top twenty guy.<\/p>\n

It feels like Richie Saunders<\/a> should have more buzz. The 6\u20195\u201d senior from BYU is archaic by prospect standards, as he\u2019ll turn 25 prior to the start of his rookie year. Still, I see the vision enough to consider him worthy of a guaranteed contract. He\u2019s long, strong, and moves well. He\u2019s also in his second straight season of shooting over 40% from three. Run him off the line, and he can make basic reads, finish at the rim (63.8% on twos) or draw a foul (.405 FTr). Defensively, his length and activity (4.2 STL%) make him a chore to deal with. He\u2019s just a well-rounded dude with a pro body who is good at basketball. <\/p>\n

I\u2019ve seen excitement around a lot of guards this year, but not enough of it for Jaden Bradley<\/a>. I get it, he\u2019s an older prospect who doesn\u2019t shoot a lot of threes. But Arizona\u2019s 6\u20193\u201d lead guard gets everywhere he wants on the floor. He lives at the rim, he gets to the line frequently (.690 FTr), and is a consistent pull-up shooter in the mid-range. He\u2019s also one of the primary engines for one of college basketball\u2019s best teams, and he\u2019s a dogged defender (3.8 STL%). I understand having shooting concerns about a likely secondary NBA option who isn\u2019t tall and has averaged 1.2 three-point attempts per game throughout their college career, but at a certain point, the physicality, feel, and winning are too much for me to overlook. <\/p>\n

Purdue\u2019s Daniel Jacobsen<\/a> is 7\u20194\u201d, he has a 70.5 TS%, and he has a 16.1 BLK%. He\u2019s also 73% from the line and gone 2-for-6 from three this year. I haven\u2019t seen a ton of immediate NBA buzz for the sophomore, but I think there should be. <\/p>\n

Louisville\u2019s Adrian Wooley <\/a>started slow, and his first three games weren\u2019t anything to write home about. But in games 4-13, he\u2019s averaged 10.7 PPG on 50.7\/41.5\/85.7 splits while averaging 1.8 APG to 0.7 TOV. I cautioned selling stock in him when I wrote about him prior to the season, so I hope you all kept diamond hands. His timing and cadence on drives feel so much more under control now than they did in his early-season outings. <\/p>\n

This column still isn\u2019t over! No Ceilings+ subscribers get an additional bonus section every week! This week, I wrote about Keaton Wagler! There is no better way to support the work that we do at No Ceilings than by subscribing to NC+. I believe our track record of consistent, thoughtful work over the past four years speaks for itself. It\u2019s only $8\/month or $80\/year, so please consider supporting the work that we do. You\u2019ll get our pre-season draft guide, access to our Discord, this extra section of my column each week, bonus columns from our entire team, live scouting reports, and MUCH MORE!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Art by Lilly Cooper | Pictures property of their respective owners When I first watched Paul McNeil Jr.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":393287,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[557],"tags":[64,63,590,85],"class_list":{"0":"post-393286","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nba","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-nba","11":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/393286","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=393286"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/393286\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/393287"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=393286"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=393286"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=393286"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}