{"id":398179,"date":"2026-01-07T19:47:13","date_gmt":"2026-01-07T19:47:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/398179\/"},"modified":"2026-01-07T19:47:13","modified_gmt":"2026-01-07T19:47:13","slug":"8-bold-mma-predictions-for-2026-ufcs-white-house-event-goes-sideways-jon-jones-fights-twice-and-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/398179\/","title":{"rendered":"8 bold MMA predictions for 2026: UFC’s White House event goes sideways, Jon Jones fights twice and more"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last year we rolled out our bold predictions for the MMA year<\/a>, and a good many of them \u2014 for the most part \u2014 came true. Petesy Carroll proclaimed that Jon Jones would be stripped of his title. He would\u2019ve been, had he not retired first. Ben Fowlkes anticipated Jones would retire, only to unretire, which is exactly how it went down. And Chuck Mindenhall prophesied that it wouldn\u2019t be Jones who would disappoint Tom Aspinall in 2025, it would be none other than Ciryl Gane.<\/p>\n

That part came true, though Aspinall didn\u2019t end up losing.<\/p>\n

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(Sorry Drake Riggs, the UFC still didn\u2019t bring over the atomweight division from Japan, but Tony Ferguson did at least win something<\/a>. In fact, he won multiple things!<\/a>)<\/p>\n

The same group of Uncrowned\u2019s soothsayers are at it again this year, with the boldest of the bold MMA predictions for 2026. So bold, in fact, that some might use the word courageous.<\/p>\n

1. It will be ‘The Year of Unconventional Things’ in the UFC<\/p>\n

Mindenhall: I don\u2019t know exactly how the Paramount+ era will look, but if the early bookings tell us anything it\u2019s that the UFC is treating its own rankings as Marcel Duchamp treated the Mona Lisa. With Justin Gaethje jumping into an interim lightweight title fight against Paddy Pimblett in a world where Arman Tsarukyan exists, anything is possible in 2026.<\/p>\n

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When I say anything, I mean weird, unconventional stuff. White House-level strangeness, where cameos by unforeseen players might become a thing. The meritocracy will suffer in a big way.<\/a> Some of the shark-eyed Russian\/Dagestani fighters may get stuck behind a permanent eight-ball when vying for titles, \u00e0 la Movsar Evloev. One way to beat dogged wrestlers is to freeze them out. With Netflix scoring record numbers by having Jake Paul box different generations of heavyweights, TKO may want the UFC to open its mind.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve seen the odd CM Punk or James Toney fight in the UFC over the years. I think we\u2019ll see some strange crossover fights in 2026, added attractions to fill in the void left by the orgy of title fights being speculated for the White House in June. Maybe it won\u2019t be Elon Musk vs. Mark Zuckerberg, but we\u2019re going to take some detours, people.<\/p>\n

Mark. My. Words.<\/p>\n

\"LAS<\/p>\n

Arman Tsarukyan does not like this, Chuck.<\/p>\n

(Chris Unger via Getty Images)2. Paramount will dip a toe into some PPV-ish waters with UFC<\/p>\n

Fowlkes: Word is out among those wheelin’-and-dealin’ TV executive types. They seem to agree on one thing: Paramount overpaid for the UFC broadcast rights. A billion dollars a year for the rights to stream what is still a fairly niche sport that, just due to the blood and violence alone, is never going to be prime-time entertainment the whole family can enjoy?<\/p>\n

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I mean, it’s a feather in the cap for TKO executives, but imagine how many new monthly subscriptions you have to sell to earn that money back. (Against my better judgment, I did some math. Turns out 1 billion divided by $7.99 is something like 125 million. Prior to this deal, Paramount+ had about 79 million subscribers and was adding a million or two per quarter, give or take, while still losing money on streaming overall.)<\/p>\n

What I’m saying is, it’s not going to be enough. Personally, I\u2019m ecstatic that, for the first time in my roughly quarter-century of MMA fandom, the price to watch is actually going down from year to year. But that don\u2019t pay the freight, as Cy Tolliver might say. That\u2019s why there will inevitably come a point when the suits up top get the idea to reinvent the wheel and sell us some sort of \u201cspecial\u201d UFC event at a higher price. And if I had to guess, I\u2019d say it\u2019ll happen sometime in this first year.<\/p>\n

Why, you ask? Because waiting until Year 2 or 3 of this deal means letting us get used to a new (and cheaper) world order. Once we start thinking of the UFC as something that is included entirely with the monthly subscription cost, it\u2019ll be damned difficult to get us back into a pay-per-view kind of mindset. They won\u2019t want to try it right away, but they also won\u2019t want to wait too long. They know MMA fans are like a beaten dog that still flinches when you lift your hand too quickly. We\u2019re glad to see the price go down, but we\u2019re not sure we trust it just yet. So at some point this year they\u2019re going to test us. They\u2019re going to see if we still have that pay-per-view conditioning deep in our bones. They might not call it pay-per-view (close your eyes and imagine Jon Anik saying something like “platinum premier event,” or whatever), but that’s what it will amount to.<\/p>\n

If enough people cave, we’ll be back on the road to pay-per-view before we know it. But if we don\u2019t? Then the powers that be might finally admit that pay-per-view is dead. And good riddance.<\/p>\n

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3. Seven current and former UFC champs \u2014 Zhang, Harrison, Nunes (again), Pereira, Usman, Volkanovski and Makhachev \u2014 will all retire in 2026<\/p>\n

Riggs: Y\u2019all ready for a retirement party? UFC and WWE both have somewhat of an age problem heading into 2026, at least when it comes to the stars. While I feel much more confident about some of my inclusions than others, all but one of the below are 35 years or older. Let\u2019s walk through the list.<\/p>\n

Zhang Weili: The former strawweight champion is deciding where she goes next after relinquishing her belt and taking arguably the worst loss of her career in her bid for flyweight gold. Zhang has a very lengthy and taxing 30-fight career already behind her with nothing left to prove \u2014 aside from maybe breaking Joanna Jedrzejczyk’s strawweight record for total UFC title defenses. She just needs to win two more title fights at strawweight to do so, which is achievable before 2026 ends.<\/p>\n

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Kayla Harrison: The roadmap has already been laid out by Harrison. Should she defeat Amanda Nunes on Jan. 24 at UFC 324, a champion vs. champion superfight against Valentina Shevchenko at the White House \u2014 or the middle of this year \u2014 would be all that’s left for her. That goes without even mentioning the toll her cuts to bantamweight take on her body. Harrison has been a professional athlete her entire life, and those two potential wins over arguably the two women’s GOATs make for a perfect sendoff.<\/p>\n

Alex Pereira: Another champion who has been fighting for his whole life, Pereira seems ready to give heavyweight a try after he reclaimed light heavyweight gold in 2025. At age 38, the fantasy run surely wouldn\u2019t be for an extended period, and if things don\u2019t go his way, there\u2019s no real reason to stick around.<\/p>\n

Alexander Volkanovski: \u201cVolk\u201d has accepted his inevitable life post-fighting more and more since he first lost the featherweight title in early 2024. With the UFC seemingly uninterested in giving him challengers that get the blood pumping, Volkanovski’s lack of interest could see him retire on top, or he\u2019ll meet his match once more and say farewell.<\/p>\n

Kamaru Usman: He practically feels semi-retired at this point, and only wants an illogical title shot against the next name I’m about to mention. Either Usman doesn\u2019t fight at all and retires at some point, or he loses his final shot at gold and calls it a career.<\/p>\n

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Islam Makhachev: I just can’t shake the Khabib Nurmagomedov comparisons with Makhachev. At 34, the guy is the best in the world and clearly can cement himself as a top-three all-time GOAT by defending for the next several years. However, like Nurmagomedov, Makhachev has climbed \u2014 and surpassed \u2014 a similar mountain of dominance. One or two welterweight title defenses might be all he needs to be fully satisfied, as unfortunate as that would be for us as viewers.<\/p>\n

\"ABU<\/p>\n

Islam Makhachev and Alexander Volkanovski, suddenly united in their distaste for Drake Riggs.<\/p>\n

(Chris Unger via Getty Images)4. Michael Chandler finally gets to fight Conor McGregor<\/p>\n

Carroll: For three years, Michael Chandler has been waiting like a coiled spring for Conor McGregor to make it to the dance. He\u2019s had his shoes shined, his shirt ironed and trousers pressed, but I think 2026 could be the year he finally gets his corsage.<\/p>\n

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Both men seem absolutely besotted with the idea of fighting for U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House. Unlike their previous scrapped dates, something tells me that a broken toe would not stop \u201cThe Notorious\u201d from showing up for such a historic date. And it\u2019s not just because of the political ramifications either \u2014 I think McGregor needs to fight now more than ever.<\/p>\n

The past few years have been a public relations nightmare for the former UFC double champion. After losing a civil sexual assault case to Nikita Hand in November 2024, products linked to \u201cThe Notorious\u201d were boycotted en masse across the U.K. and Ireland<\/a>. In November, Irish reports<\/a> claimed he had lost \u20ac7.7 million on his Forged Stout enterprises.<\/p>\n

If the White House event does happen this summer, it’ll be five years since we last saw him compete, but that doesn\u2019t mean he hasn\u2019t dirtied his bib from a sporting point-of-view. In October of last year it was revealed he accepted an 18-month retroactive ban due to him missing a number of drug tests in 2024<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Fighting is the catalyst for everything in McGregor\u2019s empire. More than ever, he needs to generate positive headlines, and the best way for him to do that is to present himself for a fight week. This will be the year the phone Chandler has been white-knuckling since 2023 finally rings.<\/p>\n

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5. Jon Jones will come back and lose \u2014 which means we’ll be stuck with him, as he won’t be able to live with a loss<\/p>\n

Mindenhall: This one is very specific, but I suspect it\u2019s 100% accurate.<\/p>\n

After the ridiculous year Jon Jones just had, in which he held the heavyweight belt hostage until late June when he abruptly retired, he will make his return in 2026. It will be an altered version of the Jones we remember, a larger, more lumbering mammal whose reflexes will have slowed considerably, possibly a symptom of the many vodka lunches from his time in Russia, allowing the playing field to catch up. The man who will catch him will be Alex Pereira, Jones\u2019 sole fixation through his selective twilight years, when protecting his legacy became a moral imperative.<\/p>\n

Here’s the kicker, though. Once Jones loses, he will want to fight again ASAP. After all the reluctance and coaxing and endless negotiations of yesteryear, Jones will know that time is ticking down on him, and he\u2019ll want to erase the first true loss on his record. This will become the new obsession. And here\u2019s predicting that, because the hourglass is emptying so rapidly, we see Jones fight a second time in late 2026. Will it be a rematch with Pereira? Let\u2019s just say that when I ask my magic eight-ball, it says, \u201cChama,\u201d so interpret that how you must.<\/p>\n

\"ALBUQUERQUE,<\/p>\n

Jon Jones can’t believe you’ve done this, MITH.<\/p>\n

(Sam Wasson via Getty Images)6. UFC’s White House event will be much weirder than we expect<\/p>\n

Fowlkes: Right now in America we are living in, well, let\u2019s just say interesting times. If we weren\u2019t, there’s no way we\u2019d even be talking about doing a UFC event on the White House lawn, conveniently scheduled for the president\u2019s 80th birthday. I know people are excited about this, expecting a big party with UFC fighters as guests of honor. But I\u2019m telling you right now, it\u2019s going to be much, much weirder than that. And it\u2019s probably going to be uncomfortable and even comical at some points.<\/p>\n

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For one thing, Dana White has already confirmed they probably aren\u2019t selling tickets to John Q. Fight Fan for this one. It\u2019s going to be a bunch of billionaires and political elites, the vast majority of whom wouldn\u2019t know a wrist-lock from a wristwatch. I mean, Kid Rock will probably be there. Maybe a podcaster or two, as long as they haven’t uttered the words \u201cEpstein list\u201d into a microphone recently. But this will not be your usual crowd for your usual MMA event. It\u2019ll be a bunch of phonies trying to front like they\u2019re fight fans.<\/p>\n

It’s also going to be extremely Trump-focused. We know this. We\u2019ve seen how regular old UFC broadcasts fawn over him. This one will no doubt crank up the dial on the Trump worship, because the UFC knows there is no such thing as too much butt-kissing for this man. If he isn\u2019t awarded some manner of ceremonial UFC title belt at some point during the event, I\u2019ll be stunned.<\/p>\n

Certainly, a lot of UFC fans will be into this. Perhaps you, the person reading this story right now, are one of them. I think that\u2019s pretty weird and pretty much makes you indistinguishable from the extras in \u201cGladiator\u201d cheering for Emperor Commodus in the Roman Colosseum, but whatever. What I\u2019m saying is, don\u2019t go into this thinking UFC fighters are finally going to get the spotlight all to themselves for one unprecedented night before a vast national audience. They won\u2019t. They\u2019ll be the hired help here. And if they make the mistake of standing around in the wrong spot without their gloves on, don\u2019t be surprised if some billionaire mistakes them for the valet and tosses them his car keys.<\/p>\n

7. White House Event doesn\u2019t even happen<\/p>\n

Carroll: As much as Mr. Fowlkes forecasts all of my favorite things with regard to the White House event \u2014 political elites, billionaires and Kid Rock \u2014 I believe there is a chance the event doesn\u2019t happen at all.<\/p>\n

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Before we get into the logistical issues of hosting an event on the front lawn of the house where the leader of the free world resides, let\u2019s talk about the well-documented history of UFC not delivering on our most desired things for any given year.<\/p>\n

What were the most desired fights of 2025? Tom Aspinall vs. Jon Jones \u2014 didn\u2019t happen. What about the second-most anticipated fight of the same year? Islam Makhachev vs. Ilia Topuria. Guess what? Didn\u2019t happen.<\/p>\n

\u201cWell, what about 2024?\u201d you ask. Well, that was Aspinall vs. Jones too. And 2023? Ngannou vs. Jones.<\/p>\n

What do all of these things have in common? That\u2019s right, they all did not happen.<\/p>\n

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Don\u2019t even get me started on AT&T Stadium, Croke Park and other gargantuan stadiums that have been teased in the past.<\/p>\n

The White House event is far and away the most anticipated combat sports event of 2026. Whether you detest the idea of it or think it\u2019s the most amazing thing you\u2019ve ever imagined, you\u2019re going to watch the hell out of it.<\/p>\n

That said, this ain\u2019t the T-Mobile Arena, lads. The Secret Service will be involved, federal security will have to be on hand; it\u2019s a legitimate crowd control nightmare. There will be advanced security sweeps, to the point that even bringing broadcast infrastructure onto the premises presents its own headaches.<\/p>\n

To add to that, the White House must be a functional space in the midst of an international crisis or a state of emergency. Obviously, nobody wants that to happen, but it\u2019s not impossible.<\/p>\n

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Hey, you wanted a bold prediction, right? I\u2019ll be glued to the television if it happens, but I won\u2019t be shocked if it\u2019s added to the list of the UFC\u2019s non-deliverables.<\/p>\n

\"MIAMI,<\/p>\n

Careful, Ben, Petesy \u2014 you both just made the list.<\/p>\n

(Megan Briggs via Getty Images)8. UFC gets cool again (Spike TV-style, bro)<\/p>\n

Riggs: The ESPN era completely \u201csportified\u201d UFC to the point of nausea. MMA is still barely a \u201creal sport\u201d at the highest level, but trying to force something as bizarre as the violent fisticuffs we hold so dearly just never felt right, and the pre-fight hype levels have never been the same since the Spike TV gladiator days. You know, the backstage black-and-white fighter interview clips, \u201cFace the Pain\u201d by Stemm \u2014 all the goofy glory that was the UFC at its peak.<\/p>\n

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Most of that is probably going to continue to be left in the past, but because Paramount isn\u2019t exclusively a sports network, I do believe this new era gives a much higher likelihood of better entertainment production. Maybe even more freedom, too. Despite Dana White being largely anti-fun when it comes to creative production, he’s certainly started loosening up in recent years \u2014 for example, with the Noche UFC event series. Paramount will do what it does best: Give the UFC a much-needed facelift.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Last year we rolled out our bold predictions for the MMA year, and a good many of them…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":398180,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[570],"tags":[11159,34341,64,63,212073,212072,212074,786,11877,11367,785,85,799,787,19542],"class_list":{"0":"post-398179","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mma","8":"tag-alex-pereira","9":"tag-alexander-volkanovski","10":"tag-au","11":"tag-australia","12":"tag-ben-fowlkes","13":"tag-chuck-mindenhall","14":"tag-drake-riggs","15":"tag-fighting","16":"tag-jon-jones","17":"tag-michael-chandler","18":"tag-mma","19":"tag-sports","20":"tag-tom-aspinall","21":"tag-ufc","22":"tag-white-house"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/398179","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=398179"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/398179\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/398180"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=398179"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=398179"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=398179"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}