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Daniel Casali, chief investment strategy at wealth managers Evelyn Partners, points out that the Trump White House\u2019s immigration crackdown has slowed the jobs market this year:<\/p>\n
\u201cMonthly non-farm payrolls have slowed throughout 2025 due to a confluence of factors.<\/p>\n
These include tighter immigration policies under the Trump administration and a wave of federal employees leaving their jobs after the Department of Government Efficiency offered early retirement and redundancy packages though the Federal Government Deferred Resignation Program.\u201d<\/p>\n
Share<\/a><\/p>\n The latest market pricing confirms that a cut to US interest rates this month is very unlikely.<\/p>\n CME Group\u2019s Fedwatch tool<\/a> shows there\u2019s a 95% chance that the US Federal Reserve leaves interest rates on hold at its meeting at the end of January, and just 5% chance of a quarter-point cut.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Wall Street has opened a little higher, as investors digest today\u2019s US jobs report.<\/p>\n The Dow Jones industrial average has risen by 170 points, or 0.35%, at the start of trading to 49,436 points.<\/p>\n The broader S&P 500 share index is up almost 0.3%.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, also predicts that US interest rates will be left on hold later this month, due to the drop in the jobless rate:<\/p>\n \u201cPayrolls may have missed forecasts, and the revisions to October and November may have been brutal, but with unemployment falling to 4.4% it doesn\u2019t seem like there\u2019s too much stress in the US labour market.<\/p>\n This leaves us with the strong expectation that the Fed will hold rates in January, but remain with an easing bias. 2025 saw the weakest pace of job creation since 2020, but for now the recent weakness has abated.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Strategist: January rate cut very unlikely following drop in jobless rate<\/p>\n Today\u2019s drop in the US unemployment rate means there\u2019s almost no chance of a cut to interest rates this month, argues Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n \u201cThe prospect of a January Fed rate cut has all but vanished following the unexpected drop in the unemployment rate. It is now difficult to argue that the labour market is collapsing and in urgent need of monetary support.<\/p>\n However, the picture remains far from clear: payroll growth undershot expectations, and downward revisions to prior months have pushed the three-month moving average into negative territory. While a tighter labor supply may explain part of the dynamic, sustained job losses hardly inspire confidence.<\/p>\n The U.S. economy likely requires additional support from the Fed \u2014 just not immediately.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, says there\u2019s little sign of an economic bounceback following the end of the US government shutdown:<\/p>\n \u201cToday\u2019s US employment situation print shows just 50,000 jobs were added in December.<\/p>\n This was below expectations of 60,000 and shows the labour market remains considerably more subdued than in recent years. Healthcare, social assistance, food services and drinking places were among the sectors driving much of the hiring, while retail saw job losses.<\/p>\n \u201cThe government shutdown resulted in a period of market labour market weakness, and today\u2019s figures show there is yet to be much of a bounce back, though the unemployment rate saw a slight decline to 4.4% from a revised 4.5% previously. The data also outline the substantial drop in payrolls in 2025 compared to 2024, with just 584,000 jobs added last year compared to 2.0 million the year prior.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a009.02 EST<\/p>\n Where were jobs created in December?<\/p>\n More than half of the 50,000 jobs created in the US last month were at food services and drinking places, where payrolls rose by 27,000.<\/p>\n Health care continued to add workers in December; payrolls rose by 21,000, including 16,000 in hospitals.<\/p>\n Employment in social assistance rose by 17,000.<\/p>\n But it was a tougher jobs market in retail, where 25,000 jobs were cut.<\/p>\n Federal government employment rose by 2,000, suggesting that the Doge jobs cull may have abated \u2013 after 277,000 jobs were lost through 2025<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Unemployment rate dips to 4.4%<\/p>\n America\u2019s jobless rate has fallen, to 4.4% in December, down from 4.5% in November (which I think has been revised down from 4.6%)<\/p>\n Today\u2019s employment data shows that the unemployment total dipped from 7.781m in November to 7.503m in December.<\/p>\n The number of people employed rose, month-on-month, but the labor force participation rate dipped from 62.5% to 62.4%, implying more people were neither in work nor looking for a job.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a009.25 EST<\/p>\n Today\u2019s jobs report also shows that federal government employment has fallen by over 9% since the start of the year, when Elon Musk\u2019s \u201cdepartment of government efficiency\u201d (Doge<\/a>) began cutting jobs.<\/p>\n The BLS says:<\/p>\n Federal government employment was little changed in December (+2,000). Since reaching a peak in January, federal government employment is down by 277,000, or 9.2 percent.<\/p>\n New analysis released today shows that the Trump administration \u201cwasted\u201d $10bn on paid leave<\/a>, or paying workers to stay home, as part of Doge\u2019s assault on the federal workforce.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a008.51 EST<\/p>\n US job creation slowed in Trump’s first year<\/p>\n We can also see today that much fewer jobs were created in Donald Trump\u2019s first year than the final year of Joe Biden\u2019s administration.<\/p>\n The Establishment Survey Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today shows that payroll employment rose by 584,000 in 2025, which is an average monthly gain of 49,000.<\/p>\n That\u2019s rather less than the increase of 2.0 million in 2024 (an average monthly gain of 168,000).<\/p>\n Share<\/a>US lost 173,000 jobs in October<\/p>\n Oof! It now appears that many more jobs were lost in October than first estimated.<\/p>\n Today\u2019s jobs report shows that nonfarm payroll employment in October fell by 173,000, much worse than the estimate of 105,000 job losses.<\/p>\n That\u2019s partly because many federal employees took deferred buyout offers from the Trump administration and were paid at the end of September, meaning they dropped out of the non-farm payroll in October.<\/p>\n So, with 8,000 fewer jobs created in November than previously thought, that means employment in October and November combined is 76,000 lower than previously reported.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>US added fewer jobs than forecast in December<\/p>\n Newsflash: The US economy added fewer jobs than expected last month.<\/p>\n America\u2019s non-farm payroll rose by 50,000 in December, missing forecasts of a 60,000 rise.<\/p>\n Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports, while retail trade lost jobs.<\/p>\n That shows a hiring slowdown, compared with the previous month; the BLS now estimates that 56,000 jobs were created in November, 8,000 fewer than its first estimate of 64,000.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a008.34 EST<\/p>\n Charity Commission investigating City & Guilds over concerns about asset sales<\/p>\n Back in the UK, the Charity Commission has opened a statutory inquiry into City and Guilds of London Institute<\/a>, following reports in the Guardian about the sale of its training and awards business.<\/p>\n The Commission says the inquiry will examine information provided ahead of the sale, \u201cfollowing concerns raised in public reporting relating to the sale and bonuses awarded to its executives\u201d.<\/p>\n Last month, my colleague Simon Goodley reported that two City & Guilds executives have each been awarded million-pound bonuses and sizeable salary increases following the sale of its training and awards operation, City & Guilds (C&G), to PeopleCert<\/a>.<\/p>\n The Commission will also look into the trustees\u2019 decision-making regarding the sale and entering into a \u2018coexistence agreement\u2019 with the new company.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Markets brace for US jobs report<\/p>\n The financial markets are limbering up for the final, and most important, major economic news of the week \u2013 the US jobs report for December, due in half an hour\u2019s time.<\/p>\n Economists predict that December\u2019s non-farm payroll report will show that the US economy created around 60,000 new jobs last month.<\/p>\n That would be a slight slowdown on the 64,000 added in November, but rather better than October\u2019s shockingly bad report, which showed 105,000 jobs were lost!<\/p>\n The non-farm payroll could shift market expectations around the US\u2019s growth prospects, and the likelihood of interest rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n It should also give us a better insight into the health of the economy, after last autumn\u2019s shutdown disrupted the usual flow of economic data.<\/p>\n Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays, says:<\/p>\n \u201cRevisions to prior months will also be closely scrutinised as the impact of the US government shutdown continues to be felt. Ultimately this report is just one piece of a puzzle that also includes inflation and an upcoming decision by the US Supreme Court on reciprocal tariffs.<\/p>\n As such, we doubt it will be enough to significantly alter the current narrative that the US Federal Reserve will remain on pause through Q1.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n In the UK property sector, home sales in November last year was 8% higher than the same month in 2024, according to HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) figures.<\/p>\n Around 100,350 homes changed hands in November 2025, which is also 1% more than in the previous month.<\/p>\n An estimated 732,310 home sales have taken place in the financial year to date, running from April to November 2025, compared with 746,220 a year earlier, according to the HMRC figures.<\/p>\n UK residential transactions estimates diverge depending on your preference to season or not. In November 2025 there were 100,350, 8% higher than November 2024 and 1% higher than October 2025 when seasonally adjusted, That said when non-seasonally adjusted the number of UK\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/9uNDpxCnEe<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Emma Fildes (@emmafildes) January 9, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n Share<\/a>EU backs Mercosur trade deal despite farmer protests European nations have backed the biggest ever free trade agreement with a group of South American countries, ending 25 years of negotiations but risking further tensions with farmers around the bloc.<\/p>\n France, Poland, Austria, Ireland and Hungary opposed the deal in the face of protests from the agricultural sector, but Italy dropped its opposition allowing the landmark deal to be adopted under the majority voting system.<\/p>\n The deal with Brazil, Argentina, Paraquay and Uruquary, must still get the approval of the European Parliament but bar any major U-turns by member states, it could be signed off as early as next week by European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.<\/p>\n The European Commission which concluded negotiations a year ago had hoped to get the deal over the line at the European Council summit but it was pulled from the agenda at the last minute after opposition by France and Italy, two of the bloc\u2019s biggest agricultural producers.<\/p>\n On Thursday night French president Emmanuel Macron announced it would vote against the deal after farmers rolled into Paris on tractors in the latest protests against the pact which they fear will flood the bloc with cheap and substandard meat.<\/p>\n A senior European Commission official described Ireland\u2019s decision to also vote against the deal as \u201cdisappointing\u201d claiming the country\u2019s concerns had been address.<\/p>\n Belgian abstained from the vote, reflecting differences in the federal government.<\/p>\n Supporters of the deal say it will help the EU diversify and compensate for the new trade barriers erected by Donald Trump and lower tariffs on the equivalent of just 1.5% of beef produced in the EU.<\/p>\n It will see import duties phased out on 91% of EU goods and allow freer access to critical raw materials like lithium needed for batteries in the European car industry.<\/p>\n The German federation of industries has welcomed the Mercosur deal saying it is an important day for the Germany and European economies showing that the \u201cEU can be a relevant geostrategic actor\u201d.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a007.01 EST<\/p>\n We have some rather mixed economic data from Europe\u2019s largest economy this morning.<\/p>\n German exports unexpectedly fell by 2.5% in November, with shipments to the US, and other European Union countries, both declining.<\/p>\n But factory output has risen unexpectedly in November, by 0.8%, while factory orders surged by 5.6% in the month.<\/p>\n Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, says this shows the German government\u2019s stimulus package is starting to work, lifting domestic demand, explaining:<\/p>\n Of course, monthly data are volatile. We thus have to take the November surprise with a 5.6% mom surge in German factory orders and a 0.8% gain in industrial output with a pinch of salt. Still, the three-month moving averages tell a story: German industry seems to be beyond the worst.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n <\/a>I mentioned earlier<\/a> that coal could be a stumbling block in the Rio-Glencore merger talks, but apparently it\u2019s not!<\/p>\n Bloomberg are reporting that Rio Tinto is open to retaining Glencore\u2019s coal business if merger talks between the two companies are successful.<\/p>\n That would be a return to coal for Rio, which sold its last Australian coal mine in 2018<\/a>.<\/p>\n![\"Lisa](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Lisa-OCarroll-byline-004.jpg\")
Lisa O\u2019CarrollPolish farmers hold a banner as they protest against the Mercosur trade deal in the center of Warsaw, Poland, today. Photograph: Aleksandra Szmigiel\/Reuters<\/p>\n