US President Donald Trump has said Venezuela stole United States oil assets. Experts say the truth is much more complex than that.<\/p>\n
The US president has done little to persuade anyone otherwise.<\/p>\n
In addition to waxing lyrical over his brilliantly executed military operation, he’s boasted about the riches that he expects to flow from the Latin American country, money that he will personally control.<\/p>\n
Venezuela’s interim leaders would turn over 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil, he announced on Wednesday our time via social media, which the US would sell at market rates instead of the heavily discounted rate it has been offloading its energy.<\/p>\n
“And that money will be controlled by me, as president of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!” he said.<\/p>\n
The not-so-subtle subtext is clear. America will become the global energy powerhouse. It’s already the world’s biggest oil producer, and by pulling Venezuelan oil into its orbit it will be able to control global energy prices.<\/p>\n
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Venezuelans celebrate in Chile after President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro was captured and flown out of Venezuela. (AP: Esteban Felix)<\/p>\n
But scratch just a little beneath the surface of all the bluster and it becomes apparent that Trump’s play for Venezuela’s oil riches may not be all it’s cracked up to be.<\/p>\n
He may have just landed a dud.<\/p>\n
No price control without oil flow<\/p>\n
Even before the smoke had cleared over Caracas, global leaders, financial market types and the media quickly became fixated on oil.<\/p>\n
Venezuela, we’re consistently told, has the world’s biggest oil reserves, bigger than Saudi Arabia’s.<\/p>\n
America’s grab for control could deliver it the same kind of market power flexed by the Saudis and its OPEC allies back in the Seventies.<\/p>\n
US says Maduro’s allies will ‘comply’<\/a><\/p>\n The Trump administration insists Venezuela’s leaders will now comply with American demands \u2014 but what remains of the Maduro regime is resisting US pressure.<\/p>\n OPEC reshaped the global economy 50 years ago when it pushed through two massive price hikes, creating an inflation spike throughout the developed world.<\/p>\n That world no longer exists. We are now awash with oil, with prices currently sitting around half the levels of 15 years ago.<\/p>\n Controlling Venezuela’s oil reserves would only deliver power if it was a major global supplier.<\/p>\n But it isn’t. The country’s corroding oil infrastructure is in disarray, it produces only around a third of what it once did, and its oil is largely unwanted because it is heavy, difficult to refine and loaded with sulphur which it is costly to extract.<\/p>\n Only a handful of high spec refineries on the US Gulf Coast along with new facilities in India, the Middle East and China can process it.<\/p>\n LoadingWhy two thirds of Venezuela’s oil may be missing<\/p>\n Even its much-vaunted proven reserves of 303 billion barrels \u2014 the world’s biggest \u2014 is open to question.<\/p>\n Why? Because proven reserves are not static. They change constantly. That’s because the definition is based upon the amount of oil that can be extracted economically using current technology.<\/p>\n So as the oil price shifts so too does the proven reserve. Higher prices make difficult-to-access resources a money making proposition. Lower prices have the opposite effect.<\/p>\n And that is where the problem lies.<\/p>\n Crude oil drips from a valve at an oil well operated by Venezuela’s state oil company. (Reuters: Carlos Garcia Rawlins)<\/p>\n According to Adi Imsirovic, a lecturer in energy systems at Oxford University, the number bandied about as Venezuela’s proven reserves date back to 2008 when the price of oil was fetching $US140 a barrel.<\/p>\n It’s now under $US60 a barrel. That’s partly because the US has ramped up production under Donald Trump’s “drill baby drill” policy, which has lifted US oil and gas production and exploration.<\/p>\n On top of that, Venezuelan oil cops a $US25 discount, partly because of US sanctions but mostly because it is expensive to refine.<\/p>\n “All other things being equal, the current proven oil reserves may be well below 100 billion barrels<\/a> \u2014 less than a third of the figure that’s frequently cited,” he says.<\/p>\n That’s still a lot. But it’s a lot less than first thought.<\/p>\n Oil demand forecast to slow, then crash<\/p>\n While oil is an essential ingredient in everything from foodstuffs to pharmaceuticals, its value primarily is determined by its demand as a fuel.<\/p>\n Overwhelmingly, it is used for transport, and according to the International Energy Agency more than 25 per cent of total oil demand is used to power privately owned cars and vans<\/a>.<\/p>\n![\"Crude](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/98ee3c99834d1b2cc84b79d8c9b7c794.jpeg\")
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