It\u2019s like the Atlanta Braves are out to personally ruin every newsletter I write. <\/p>\n
From just last week alone, Atlanta\u2019s front office responded to three different newsletters with roster moves that made the article outdated within days (or even hours) of its release. <\/p>\n
On Monday, we previewed the bullpen options, followed by a discussion on Wednesday about how Atlanta\u2019s remaining offseason spending was likely in a holding pattern until the medical reports on Joe Jim\u00e9nez<\/a> came back. On Saturday, they went ahead and re-signed slider god Tyler Kinley<\/a> to a deal for 2026, all but guaranteeing him a bullpen slot. We then wrote about the final options off the bench on Friday, using Thursday\u2019s designation of Vidal Bruj\u00e1n<\/a> for assignment as our catalyst to make Brett Wisely<\/a> the favorite for the 13th position player spot. Wisely was then designated for assignment on Friday afternoon so the Braves could claim pitcher George Soriano<\/a> off of waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. <\/p>\n So let\u2019s try to be a little more \u2018evergreen\u2019 here and talk about Atlanta\u2019s lineup construction. Not where Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.<\/a> is going to bat, as he\u2019ll likely resume manning the leadoff spot, but everyone else around him. What\u2019s the optimal mix of slug and on-base ability to score runs? Let\u2019s talk about it. <\/p>\n The excellent Substack \u201cDown on the Farm<\/a>\u201d, which mostly covers minor league baseball, did a study recently<\/a> on the positive or negative impact of a lineup composed entirely of elite power hitters (using Cal Raleigh<\/a> as a stand-in) and supplementing it either with a close-to-league-average power hitter (using Riley Greene<\/a>) or a league average on-base focused hitter (using Jake Cronenworth<\/a>). <\/p>\n While it\u2019s behind the paywall, the key takeaway there is that a blend is best and the proper construction, in the league-average, neutral context, is to build a power-heavy lineup and supplement it with on-base hitters rather than add even elite power hitters to on-base heavy lineups. <\/p>\n Essentially, don\u2019t put Cal Raleigh on the Cleveland Guardians; put Juan Soto<\/a> on the Atlanta Braves. <\/p>\n The end result of the research came to the conclusion that four OBP hitters and five power hitters is the ideal distribution, with the caveat that the research wasn\u2019t able to completely model the interactions between roster spots.<\/p>\n (The counterpoint here is that they found the max difference in a season is 71 runs, which is not nothing, but only about 10% of Atlanta\u2019s total production last season. There\u2019s utility to be gained here, sure, but it\u2019s also around a half-run per game in the theoretical when looking at the least and most-optimized lineups and likely impossible to be accurately modeled in the real world due to the myriad lineup interactions and other variables.)<\/p>\n Let\u2019s assign each Braves hitter a category – OBP, power, or elite (marked by great stats in both categories) and discuss the ideal way to deploy them next season. To do that, we\u2019re going to pull player production from FanGraphs THE BAT projections<\/a> for 2026.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s put each of Atlanta\u2019s hitters into one of three groups: Elite, slug, or OBP. <\/p>\n To be elite, I\u2019m deciding a hitter needs an ISO of .200 or better as well as a walk rate better than MLB average. That leaves two names: Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr. (.209 ISO, 13.02% walk rate) and Matt Olson<\/a> (.206 ISO, 12.1% walk rate). While I do think Drake Baldwin<\/a> can eventually get there, as he hits the absolute crap out of the ball, he\u2019s not projected for a .200 ISO just yet. <\/p>\n Everyone else gets dropped into two or three buckets – I\u2019ll explain that one in a minute.<\/p>\n SLUG: Austin Riley<\/a>, Michael Harris, Sean Murphy, Mike Yastrzemski<\/a> (versus righties) I\u2019m sure you can tell that Ozzie Albies<\/a> and Mauricio Dub\u00f3n<\/a> are both missing here. Sadly, I\u2019ve got them in the \u201cJust A Guy\u201d category right now – Ozzie\u2019s never walked much and needs to show his power\u2019s back after this most recent broken bone, while Dub\u00f3n looks the part of an on-base focused guy against lefties (.283 average, 127 OPS+) without the actual walks (5.8% walk rate), but has watched his overall OPS+ drops for three consecutive seasons, from 97 to 87 to 78. <\/p>\n Ronald\u2019s leading off. I\u2019m sorry, but that\u2019s where he is at his best, and the psychological impact of first-inning runs is too significant to give up. <\/p>\n Running through all of the different permutations, the lineup that generated the most runs looks something like this: <\/p>\n
OBP: Drake Baldwin, Jurickson Profar<\/a>, Ha-Seong Kim<\/a><\/p>\n