{"id":411203,"date":"2026-01-14T01:07:07","date_gmt":"2026-01-14T01:07:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/411203\/"},"modified":"2026-01-14T01:07:07","modified_gmt":"2026-01-14T01:07:07","slug":"rugby-is-moving-towards-moneyball-style-data-but-value-of-flair-remains-rugby-union","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/411203\/","title":{"rendered":"Rugby is moving towards Moneyball-style data but value of flair remains | Rugby union"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Six Nations championship is fast approaching but, ahead of rugby union\u2019s beloved annual fiesta, two recent away club victories are worth contemplating. The first was Northampton\u2019s stunning win at Bath last month with a supposedly weakened team: the sharp attacking angles, deft handling and speed of thought were supremely good. Then there was Bristol\u2019s 60-point altitude-defying romp<\/a> in Pretoria at the weekend against a Bulls side containing 10 Springboks.<\/p>\n

Both merit closer examination. Northampton, in particular, lost the overall territory battle to Bath and kicked out of hand only 15 times in 80 minutes. For every kick they attempted they threw a dozen passes, the aim being to shift the point of attack and chase space rather than follow the orthodox template of routine kicking, set-piece dominance, lineout drives and close-quarters power.<\/p>\n

The Bears were slightly different in that they kicked more frequently, understandably so when the ball flies for miles and there is a chance to give your perspiring forwards a momentary breather in demanding conditions. Still, though, it was their passing movement, pace on to the ball and keen understanding of how and where to strike that shredded the Bulls and facilitated the startled hosts\u2019 nine-try drubbing.<\/p>\n

It prompts some interesting philosophical questions, not least around some of modern rugby\u2019s casual assumptions. The prevailing kneejerk reaction to the Bristol scoreline is to say the Bulls\u2019 defence was poor. Which it sometimes was. But what if that presumption misses the point as spectacularly as the Saints and the Bears both played? No one is saying defence, intelligent kicking and rugged scrummaging are not all critically important in modern rugby but perhaps people are underplaying the growing importance of a razor-sharp, proactive attacking game. Look at Bordeaux, the free-wheeling defending Champions Cup holders, and the theory gains further weight.<\/p>\n

This feels like a timely week, then, to seek some sharp-eyed tactical advice. The analyst Sam Larner, who clearly has a brain the size of a planet and pores over more match footage than is good for him, has written a book called Attacking The Space<\/a>, which will be published on 29 January. Subtitled \u201cInside rugby\u2019s tactical and data revolution\u201d it seeks to demystify aspects of the game that often confuse or infuriate newcomers.<\/p>\n

It is well written, insightful and thought-provoking. \u201cPossession is meaningless unless it\u2019s in the opposing 22\u201d. Or \u201cKicking is not killing rugby. It\u2019s improving it.\u201d Larner even argues that \u201ckicking is a beautiful thing which can be adored rather than endured in the same way that paying tax and seeing the benefits can give you a sense of civic pride.\u201d You can\u2019t help but wonder how many readers resident in the Isle of Man or Monaco will share that sentiment.<\/p>\n

Northampton played some scintillating rugby against Bath last month. Photograph: David Rogers\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

Aged 33 and still playing and coaching at grassroots level, the Yorkshire-based Larner is a child of the digital generation. He loves data and knows the value of a box kick to the nearest decimal point. On average, he says, teams will go through 5.4 phases before a mistake is made resulting in a loss of possession. Which is why so many sides are more than happy to hoof the ball skywards at the earliest opportunity, hoping to sweep up the crumbs. The average number of kicks per game at the 2023 Rugby World Cup \u2013 57 \u2013 was up by 20% and the highest recorded since 1995.<\/p>\n

All very interesting. Larner was originally inspired to pursue the rugby analysis route after reading Michael Lewis\u2019s Moneyball at the age of 16 and some of his findings have surprised even himself. \u201cThe biggest thing that came out of it was how similar defences are at the best and worst teams in the leagues.\u201d Minimal differences, he found, can be crucially multiplied by other related factors. \u201cIt might just be that the worst team are missing tackles in the area of the pitch that matters most.\u201d<\/p>\n

But hang on. To what degree does following the numbers throttle ambition and create an increasingly formulaic product? Think of the clunk-click inevitability of the midfield scrum penalty, the kick to the corner, the driven maul and the burrowing hooker. Will that really woo millions of entranced new eyeballs? In that context another of Larner\u2019s throwaway lines \u2013 \u201cStyle is irrelevant in the pro game\u201d \u2013 also jars slightly. Of course he is right in a literal sense but the game is still played \u2013 for now at least \u2013 by human beings not robots. Take someone such as Henry Pollock. If people watch the remarkable try he scored against Bordeaux on Sunday and the main takeaway is \u201cYes, but he dropped the subsequent restart\u201d, rugby really does have a promotional problem.<\/p>\n

As Larner himself points out, there are echoes here of that old line about the similarity between analysing a joke and dissecting a frog. No one enjoys it and the frog dies. Equally, though, he believes a complex sport can still be enjoyed by novices if the messaging is clear enough. \u201cIf you look at sports that have really rocketed in popularity in recent years like American football and Formula One you couldn\u2019t think of two more complicated sports. But they\u2019ve rocketed partly through presentation and confidence in what they do. In rugby if we have one round of the Six Nations that is a bit dross we practically have a referendum on the game.\u201d<\/p>\n

His personal remedy is for rugby to become collectively less insecure and to reduce further the amount of dead time in games. \u201cI would put in a \u2018Taking the piss\u2019 rule. You want there to be constant movement forward, you don\u2019t want a feeling of \u2018Nothing\u2019s really happened for two minutes.\u2019 For example, don\u2019t allow players to repeatedly walk to lineouts. It would make the whole game feel a little crisper and snappier.\u201d Interesting. And if more teams start to take a few more risks and attack as enthusiastically as Bordeaux, Northampton and Bristol so much the better.<\/p>\n

This is an extract taken from our weekly rugby union email, the Breakdown. To sign up, just visit this page<\/a> and follow the instructions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Six Nations championship is fast approaching but, ahead of rugby union\u2019s beloved annual fiesta, two recent away…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":411204,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[567],"tags":[64,63,760,85],"class_list":{"0":"post-411203","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-rugby","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-rugby","11":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/411203","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=411203"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/411203\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/411204"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=411203"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=411203"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=411203"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}