{"id":413462,"date":"2026-01-15T00:26:18","date_gmt":"2026-01-15T00:26:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/413462\/"},"modified":"2026-01-15T00:26:18","modified_gmt":"2026-01-15T00:26:18","slug":"red-sox-to-sign-ranger-suarez","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/413462\/","title":{"rendered":"Red Sox To Sign Ranger Su\u00e1rez"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Red Sox are going to add left-hander Ranger Su\u00e1rez<\/a> to their already-strong rotation. It is reportedly a five-year deal worth $130MM for the Boras Corporation client. It appears to be fairly straightforward, reportedly not containing any deferrals, opt-outs or no-trade protection. The Sox have a full 40-man and will need to make a corresponding move to make this official.<\/p>\n

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The Sox came into the offseason with a rotation headlined by Garrett Crochet<\/a>, followed by a notable gap to their other starters. They had a lot of options for back-end types and depth but were looking to bolster the front end.<\/p>\n

\u201cBecause of the depth that we\u2019ve built up over the last couple of years, we feel pretty good about just overall starting pitching, maybe No. 3-ish through No. 10-ish,\u201d was how chief baseball officer Craig Breslow<\/a> framed the situation in November<\/a>. \u201cAnd that\u2019s not to take away from guys who are certainly capable of doing more, and more just to say I don\u2019t think we\u2019re going to spend a ton of time trying to add a No. 4, No. 5 starter.\u201d<\/p>\n

Since then, Breslow has made a couple of moves to alter that rotation group. He acquired Sonny Gray<\/a> from the Cardinals and Johan Oviedo<\/a> from the Pirates. They subtracted a bit from the depth by including Richard Fitts<\/a> in the Gray deal and Hunter Dobbins<\/a> in the Willson Contreras<\/a> swap.<\/p>\n

Gray is arguably the kind of #2 starter the club was looking for. His 4.28 earned run average in 2025 has some Boston fans disputing that assessment but he has a 3.63 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 44.6% ground ball rate in 531 innings dating back to the start of 2023. FanGraphs ranks him fifth in wins above replacement among pitchers in that time, behind only Tarik Skubal<\/a>, Zack Wheeler<\/a>, Logan Webb<\/a> and Cristopher S\u00e1nchez<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Since the Gray deal, Boston has seemingly been more focused on upgrading its lineup and position player mix, targeting infielders like Alex Bregman<\/a>, Bo Bichette<\/a>, Ketel Marte<\/a>, Brendan Donovan<\/a> and Isaac Paredes<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The club has hit a bit of a wall there. Bregman has signed with the Cubs. The Diamondbacks have reportedly taken Marte off the market. The Astros don\u2019t seem to have much interest in moving Paredes. Bichette is still a free agent but it\u2019s unclear if the Sox would be willing to go to the lengths necessary to sign him. Donovan should still be available but the Sox haven\u2019t met their asking price, at least not yet.<\/p>\n

In the wake of Bregman\u2019s agreement with Chicago, Rob Bradford of WEEI<\/a> as well as Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive<\/a> suggested Boston could switch their focus to starting pitching. Earlier today, Bradford<\/a> suggested the club was getting more aggressive on the trade market but the Sox have gone to free agency instead.<\/p>\n

The contract is notable on a few fronts. For one, Breslow has generally avoided long-term free agent deals since becoming Boston\u2019s chief baseball officer. Coming into today, his longest deal for a free agent was to give Bregman three years, which turned into a one-year relationship when Bregman opted out. The Sox came into today as the only one of the 30 major league clubs to not have signed a free agent this winter. This deal will be a new benchmark for Breslow in terms of years and guarantee given to a free agent, as well as erasing Boston\u2019s status as the only team not to spend money on free agency this offseason.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s also a notable deal for Su\u00e1rez in a few different ways. For one thing, he was a fairly low-profile international signing of the Phillies at the start of his professional career, securing a bonus of just $25K. As he has become a major leaguer, he has pushed his salary up in arbitration with his strong results but his lack of volume has limited him. He just made $8.8MM in his final year of arbitration, relatively modest by modern standards, but will now be securing a much bigger payday than ever before.<\/p>\n

Speaking of his strong results but limited overall workload, that impacted the view of his market coming into this winter. Broadly speaking, Su\u00e1rez has been really good on a rate basis but he doesn\u2019t throw especially hard and has dealt with some nagging injuries, impacting the overall quantity of his contributions.<\/p>\n

He first became a full-time starter for the Phillies in 2022 and held a rotation job for four years. Over that span, he logged 588 1\/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA. His 21.9% strikeout rate was around league average. His 7.5% walk rate was solid and his 50.8% ground ball rate quite good. He also earned a reputation as a cold-blooded playoff contributor, giving the Phils 42 2\/3 postseason innings with a 1.48 ERA.<\/p>\n

But his velocity has never been huge and has been trending down. His four-seam fastball averaged a bit over 93 miles per hour in 2022 and 2023. That dropped to 91.8 mph in 2024 and 91.3 mph last year. His primary pitch, his sinker, averaged just 90.1 mph last year.<\/p>\n

He also still hasn\u2019t really pitched a full big league season. He hasn\u2019t had any major injury concerns but has had scattered issues over the years, with lower back problems being a recurring thorn. Thanks to those sporadic health problems, he\u2019s never hit the 30-start mark or the 160-inning plateau in any season as a big leaguer.<\/p>\n

Given his clear skills but also his question marks, MLBTR predicted<\/a> Su\u00e1rez for a five-year, $115MM deal at the beginning of the offseason, $23MM in terms of average annual value. The top of the free agent starting pitching market has been slow to move this winter. Dylan Cease<\/a> and the Blue Jays quickly found each other but it\u2019s been a bit tepid otherwise. Prior to this, no other starter apart from Cease signed a deal longer than than three years or for more than $75MM. Tatsuya Imai<\/a> settled for three years and $54MM, significantly below the expectations from the outset of the offseason.<\/p>\n

As Su\u00e1rez and Framber Valdez<\/a> lingered unsigned into the new year, it was fair to wonder if they would meet the initial expectations. But with this deal, Su\u00e1rez has not only met MLBTR\u2019s prediction but has surpassed it. He has matched the length with an extra $3MM in terms of average annual value, getting to $26MM AAV.<\/p>\n

Despite some concerns with Su\u00e1rez, the move gives Boston one of the best rotations in baseball, if not the very best. Crochet is the clear ace. Su\u00e1rez and Gray will have two spots behind him, followed by Brayan Bello<\/a>. Oviedo seems to be in a decent position to land the #5 spot but he would also have competition from guys like Patrick Sandoval<\/a> and Kutter Crawford<\/a>. It\u2019s possible Tanner Houck<\/a> jumps into the mix late in the year, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in August.<\/p>\n

Prospects Connelly Early<\/a> and Payton Tolle<\/a> made big league debuts late in 2025 and could push for jobs as well. Kyle Harrison<\/a>, David Sandlin<\/a>, Shane Drohan<\/a> and Tyler Uberstine<\/a> are also on the 40-man roster. Those latter six names all have options and either have limited big league experience or none at all, so they could all be sent to the minors as depth. Crawford has a decent amount of big league experience but is still optionable, so it\u2019s possible for him to be squeezed to Worcester as well.<\/p>\n

But it also seems fair to wonder if this Su\u00e1rez deal sets the Red Sox up to trade some starting pitching for the infield upgrade they didn\u2019t get when Bregman slipped through their fingers. They have been connected to Donovan many times and have already lined up a few trades with Chaim Bloom, Boston\u2019s former chief baseball officer who is now president of baseball operations with the Cardinals.<\/p>\n

Donovan isn\u2019t the only option out there. The Sox were also connected to Marte a bunch this winter. The Diamondbacks have reportedly taken him off the market but perhaps there\u2019s some scenario where Breslow puts some big prospect names on the table and makes them consider it. Nico Hoerner<\/a>\u2019s name has also come up in some trade rumors after the Cubs signing Bregman. If the Phillies can sign Bichette, they are expected to trade Alec Bohm<\/a> or Bryson Stott<\/a> to make room. Jake Cronenworth<\/a> of the Padres has been in a few rumors.<\/p>\n

All those players would have varying level of trade value due to their different salaries and years of control, but the same is also true of Boston\u2019s pitchers. Early and Tolle are big prospects and would only be given up for a big return. Sandoval has one year left on his contract and has been injured for most of the past two years, so his trade value is far more marginal. Bello has even been in some rumors and he would be somewhere in between, as he is owed $50.5MM over the next four years and has been more okay than great.<\/p>\n

Since it feels likely that at least one more significant move is coming, the club\u2019s financial picture is probably still in flux. For now, RosterResource<\/a> pegs the club\u2019s payroll at $216MM with a competitive balance tax calculation of $266MM. That\u2019s assuming the Su\u00e1rez deal is broken down evenly at $26MM per year, as the actual breakdown hasn\u2019t been publicly reported yet. If it\u2019s front-loaded or back-loaded, that could alter the actual payroll. However, the CBT is calculated based on a player\u2019s AAV, so that won\u2019t change.<\/p>\n

The Sox avoided the tax in 2023 and 2024. They went narrowly<\/a> over the line in 2025, paying a tax bill of just $1.5MM. That will make them second-time payors in 2026, giving them a base tax rate of 30% for going over the first threshold of $244MM. The second threshold is $264MM and the Sox would pay a 42% on further spending above that line. If they go beyond $284MM, the tax rate would jump to 75% for spending above that line and their top pick in the 2027 draft would be dropped by ten spots.<\/p>\n

Speaking of the draft, the Sox are going to be impacted by this Su\u00e1rez signing in 2026. Su\u00e1rez rejected a qualifying offer from the Phillies, meaning the Sox are subject to the associated penalties for signing him. Since the Sox paid the tax last year, they have to forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks this summer, in addition to losing $1MM in international bonus pool space. The Phillies will receive a compensation pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft.<\/p>\n

Prior to this deal with the Red Sox, Su\u00e1rez was connected to the Orioles, Astros and Mets, though other clubs presumably had interest even if they weren\u2019t connected to him in public reports. For the teams who missed out on Su\u00e1rez, there are still some options they can turn to, despite the relatively late stage of the offseason.<\/p>\n

Valdez and Zac Gallen<\/a> are the top two free agents, with Chris Bassitt<\/a>, Justin Verlander<\/a>, Lucas Giolito<\/a> and others still unsigned. The trade market still has some potential options, including MacKenzie Gore<\/a> and Freddy Peralta<\/a>. Valdez has to be pleased with Su\u00e1rez getting a deal beyond expectations even at this part of the calendar. They are fairly similar pitchers as groundballers. Valdez is a bit older but has the more impressive track record overall.<\/p>\n

Jon Heyman of The New York Post<\/a>. first reported that the Sox would be signing Su\u00e1rez.\u00a0Bob Nightengale of USA Today<\/a> first reported the length and guarantee, as well as<\/a> the lack of deferrals and opt-outs.\u00a0Chris Cotillo of MassLive<\/a> first reported the lack of a no-trade clause. Photos courtesy of Bill Streicher, Brad Penner, Imagn Images<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Red Sox are going to add left-hander Ranger Su\u00e1rez to their already-strong rotation. It is reportedly a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":413463,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[558],"tags":[64,63,591,22730,85],"class_list":{"0":"post-413462","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-mlb","11":"tag-ranger-suarez","12":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/413462","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=413462"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/413462\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/413463"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=413462"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=413462"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=413462"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}