The January NAHB\/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index<\/a> retreated in January from December and back to October levels and -21% lower than year ago levels. Builder sentiment deteriorated across all components of the index.<\/p>\n The New York Fed’s regional services sector tracking reports<\/a> yet another sharp contraction in their region in January, although not as sharp as in December<\/p>\n Across the border,\u00a0Canadian housing starts<\/a> turned in another strong result in December,\u00a0up by +11% from November, to the highest rate in five months. That caps a good full year, up +5.6% in 2025 from 2024.<\/p>\n The Canadian prime minister has been in China and has negotiated a truce<\/a> with Beijing in their tariff tussle. The Chinese will now import large volumes of Canadian crops in return for a 40,000 car concession for Chinese EVs. Those will displace US-sourced EVs. The Canadian farm lobby is happy, their car-manufacturing lobby isn’t.<\/p>\n China continues to run down its holdings of US Treasury investments<\/a>\u00a0with them falling -11.2% in November from a year ago. Their holdings of US paper drops them to third place behind Japan and the UK. Overall foreign holdings of US debt actually rose +7.3% in the year to US$9.35 tln, a record high. That is 30% of the US$30.8 tln of debt that isn’t internal. That is down from the peak proportion (35%) about a decade ago.<\/p>\n Malaysia’s economic activity continues to impress. They recorded Q4-2025 GDP growth of +5.7%<\/a> with a strong factory sector supported by strong internal demand.<\/p>\n Singapore’s (non-oil) exports rose +6.1% in December<\/a> from a year earlier, a moderated pace of growth from November. (Their refined oil exports grew at more than twice that pace.) This means that Singapore’s non-oil full-year 2025 exports came in +4.8% above their equivalent 2024 level.<\/p>\n We don’t often look at South America, but we possibly should note that Brazil turned in a good rise<\/a> in business activity in November in an overnight report.<\/p>\n In Australia, short term tourist arrivals jumped nearly +20% in November<\/a> to 831,000, a record high for any November. New Zealand continues to be their largest source of tourists. Aussie travellers chose Indonesia over New Zealand for their outbound travel – just. Then Japan, then China. The US was sixth, the UK ninth, both suffering notable falls in popularity from the same month in 2024.<\/p>\n The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.23%, up +7 bps from this time yesterday and its highest since September. A week ago it was at 4.18%. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +61 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now at +26 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at +54 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.84% and down -5 bps for the week. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps at 2.19%, up a sharp +10 bps for the week. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.71%, up +2 bps from yesterday, up +4 bps from a week ago. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.47%, up +4 bps from yesterday, up +3 bps for the week.<\/p>\n Wall Street has opened its Friday with the S&P500 up +0.1%, up the same for the week. Overnight, European markets were mixed between London’s no-change and Frankfurt’s -0.7% drop. Yesterday Tokyo closed down -0.3% for a stellar +5.0% weekly rise. Hong Kong was also down -0.3% for a +1.8% weekly rise. And Shanghai dipped -0.3% as well yesterday to end its week down -0.8%. Singapore closed up +0.3%. The ASX200 closed up +0.5% for a +2.0% weekly rise. And the NZX50 rose +0.4% in its Friday session to finish up just +0.2% for its week<\/p>\n The\u00a0Fear and Greed Index<\/a>\u00a0is now firmly in the ‘greed’ zone from the ‘neutral’ zone last week.<\/p>\n The price of gold<\/a> will start today at US$4581\/oz, and down -US$24 from yesterday, up a net +US$80 for the week. Silver is down -US$4 at US$88.50\/oz but up from US$80 a week ago.<\/p>\n American oil prices are up +US$1 from yesterday at just under US$60\/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at US$64.50\/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$59.50 and US$63.50 respectively, so very little net change.<\/p>\n The Kiwi dollar is up a bit less than +10 bps from yesterday, now at just on 57.5 USc, up +20 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 86.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 61.6, and up +10 bps from yesterday, up +20 bps for the week.<\/p>\n The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,581 and down -2.2% from this time yesterday. But it is up +3.5% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +\/- 1.3%.<\/p>\n Please note that the Wellington region is on holiday on Monday, January 19, 2026. The rest of the country is open normally.<\/p>\n Select chart tabs<\/p>\n US$
\n AU$
\n TWI-5
\n \u00a5en
\n \u00a5uan
\n \u20acuro
\n GBP
\n Bitcoin<\/p>\n
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