So, who is most likely to lose their belt this year, who is most likely to keep theirs, and who is the best bet for an out-of-nowhere title run as Joshua Van gave us?<\/p>\n
Join MMA Fighting\u2019s Mike Heck, Jed Meshew, and Alexander K. Lee as they look ahead to 2026.<\/p>\n
1. Which UFC champion is most likely to lose their title in 2026?<\/p>\n
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – JUNE 28: Joshua Van of Myanmar walks to the Octagon in a flyweight bout during the UFC 317 event at T-Mobile Arena on June 28, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n This one seems like the chalk answer, but I\u2019m mostly saying this because, despite it being a legit win at UFC 323 over Alexandre Pantoja, I learned nothing new about Joshua Van, nor am I confident he\u2019s the best flyweight in the world. The beauty of this sport, and this division in general, is that Van can answer that question in two fights or less.<\/p>\n With Pantoja likely to return no later than the third quarter, the second-best flyweight of all time will get his chance to regain the title. But Van may end up fighting before that against Manel Kape or Tatsuro Taira, and those are both super tough fights.<\/p>\n Meshew: Alexander Volkanovski<\/p>\n Here\u2019s the harsh truth about Volkanovski: the man may be an all-time great, but he\u2019s also 37 years old.<\/p>\n Last year, Volkanovski reclaimed the featherweight title, beating Diego Lopes for the vacant belt after Ilia Topuria moved up. It was an impressive performance and achievement from Volk, given his age and the fact that he was coming off a pair of brutal KO losses. But for as impressive as he was, that was also the worst I\u2019ve ever seen Volkanovski look.<\/p>\n Make no mistake, Volkanovski won the fight clearly, but the gap between him and Lopes in technical skills was vast, and Lopes still made a fight of it because Volkanovski was obviously not the same athlete he used to be. That\u2019s not a problem that gets better with time, but worse. Volkanovski is rematching Lopes in a few weeks, and while he\u2019s a justified favorite, there\u2019s also a real chance that another year of age means Lopes catches him this time. And if Lopes doesn\u2019t, the next guy will.<\/p>\n Father Time is undefeated in MMA. The greats, like Volk, can delay it for a while, but eventually, he always wins out.<\/p>\n There are so many ways Tom Aspinall could lose his belt.<\/p>\n First of all, this is heavyweight, we\u2019re talking about. Yes, the contender field is currently a horror show, but when the big boys come to play, chaos tends to follow, and Aspinall is one slip of a banana peel away from being caught by, I don\u2019t know, a Waldo Cortes-Acosta flurry or a Valter Walker heel hook and it\u2019s all over. Heck, according to Aspinall critics, not dominating Ciryl Gane in the first five minutes of their fight means Aspinall was headed to certain doom.<\/p>\n Speaking of Gane, his fateful eye poke also has to be considered, as there is no timetable for Aspinall\u2019s return as he addresses lingering issues with his vision. It would suck if Aspinall misses out on another chunk of his competitive prime, but if the UFC receives any indication he can\u2019t fight in 2026, they\u2019ll tear that title from his waist tout suite.<\/p>\n 2. Which UFC champion is most likely to retain their title in 2026?<\/p>\n Heck: Tom Aspinall (???????)<\/p>\n Look, this question is incredibly tough because this year could go off the rails in several divisions (including my out-of-the-box) answer for the next question. After weighing everything out, Tom Aspinall ends up being my answer.<\/p>\n Aspinall may not fight at all this year, and after everything they put this man through during the Jon Jones heavyweight championship era, benching him for most of a 24-month stretch in the prime of his fighting career, if there\u2019s any hope this guy can fight, stripping him is straight ridiculous.<\/p>\n My guess is the UFC will throw Ciryl Gane in an interim title fight \u2014 perhaps against Alex Pereira in \u201cPoatan\u2019s\u201d quest to become a three-division champ. Either way, a big fight would present itself for Aspinall by the end of the year, and truth be told, I would probably pick Aspinall against either guy. So for me, it\u2019s the safest pick on the board, even though there is a more obvious answer, but again, a curveball is incoming.<\/p>\n This is an incredibly difficult one to choose, because every champion right now either seems vulnerable or has already talked about moving weight classes. As such, my initial reaction was to pick the only champion who didn\u2019t lose a belt in 2025, Valentina Shevchenko, but she\u2019s also getting up there in years, and there\u2019s a chance she moves up as well.<\/p>\n So, given all that, I\u2019ve settled on welterweight champion Islam Makhachev.<\/p>\n Makhachev is extremely unlikely to move up to 185 pounds, so that\u2019s one concern out of the way, and he also might be staring at a relatively easy 2026 schedule. It\u2019s completely up in the air what the UFC will choose to do at 170 pounds, but Makhachev has been lobbying for Kamaru Usman and may well get his wish. And while that would be a travesty of justice, it also should be an easy win for Makhachev.<\/p>\n After that, fights against Michael Morales, Ian Machado Garry, or Shavkat Rakhmonov are all possibilities (Makhachev has a good chance against any of those fighters), but it seems like this may be the year we get Makhachev vs. Ilia Topuria. I have always believed that was a pretty straightforward win for Makhachev, even at lightweight, and at welterweight, he\u2019s simply far too big for Topuria. So Makhachev may go all of 2026 without ever fighting a legit top contender.<\/p>\n![\"LAS](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/gettyimages-2222683423.jpg\"\/)
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