{"id":42191,"date":"2025-08-04T06:21:14","date_gmt":"2025-08-04T06:21:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/42191\/"},"modified":"2025-08-04T06:21:14","modified_gmt":"2025-08-04T06:21:14","slug":"new-zealand-can-absorb-15-tariff-shock-anz-group-chief-economist","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/42191\/","title":{"rendered":"New Zealand can absorb 15% tariff shock \u2013 ANZ group chief economist"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ultimately, that meant at worst a hit of 15% on 2% of New Zealand\u2019s total GDP, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt doesn\u2019t strike me as a macroeconomically relevant number.\u201d<\/p>\n

The US was New Zealand\u2019s largest market for red meat in the year to June, and industry representatives said the increased tariff would put farmers and exporters at a clear competitive disadvantage.<\/p>\n

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It is also Fonterra\u2019s second largest single export market (by value) \u2013 primarily taking specialist dairy protein ingredients that are used in the manufacture of nutritional products for US and global consumers.<\/p>\n

America is a key export destination for respiratory products maker Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, which has extensive manufacturing assets in New Zealand and Mexico.<\/p>\n

It is also a significant market for New Zealand wine.<\/p>\n

In all, the US represents about 11% of total exports.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor the firms and sectors which export, it\u2019s a challenge and it\u2019s another challenge on top of higher technology costs, difficulty accessing the right labour at the right price in certain segments,\u201d Yetsenga said.<\/p>\n

It might mean more competition, and it added to medium-term concerns about the structural Chinese economic slowdown.<\/p>\n

But Yetsenga remained upbeat about New Zealand\u2019s economic recovery.<\/p>\n

\u201cLook, lower interest rates are a powerful tonic,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

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\u201cNew Zealand\u2019s economy had a pretty difficult year in 2024, but 2025 is stronger so far and and our view is we\u2019ll continue to improve into 2026.\u201d<\/p>\n

New Zealand\u2019s challenges were a slower burn and more structural in nature, he said.<\/p>\n

The fact that we\u2019re in a world of more geostrategic competition, was one of the challenges.<\/p>\n

\u201cTariffs are a byproduct of that, with different economies seeking to build domestic advantage [and] also impose costs on third economies like New Zealand.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe global economy last year did about 3.3%. This year we anticipate about 3%, so certainly a slowdown that you can see in the data, but still just a modest slowdown.<\/p>\n

\u201cTo put 3% for the global economy in context, global population growth is about 1%. A global recession is global GDP growth below population growth.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re a long way from global recession. Even though it has become a more challenging environment and tariffs are contributing to that global slowdown.\u201d<\/p>\n

Liam Dann is Business Editor at Large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, as well as presenting and producing videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ultimately, that meant at worst a hit of 15% on 2% of New Zealand\u2019s total GDP, he said.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":42192,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[28339,37041,5629,64,63,99,10868,2685,16170,164,11054,14550,21568,37043,3127,37045,4215,37042,9355,4688,37044,35022,37046,3205,22671],"class_list":["post-42191","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-28339","tag-absorb","tag-anz","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-can","tag-chief","tag-economist","tag-economy","tag-exports","tag-group","tag-higher","tag-imposed","tag-new","tag-richard","tag-says","tag-shock","tag-tariff","tag-tariffs","tag-visiting","tag-weekend","tag-yetsenga","tag-zealand","tag-zealands"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42191","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42191"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42191\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/42192"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42191"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42191"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42191"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}