{"id":426340,"date":"2026-01-20T22:06:09","date_gmt":"2026-01-20T22:06:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/426340\/"},"modified":"2026-01-20T22:06:09","modified_gmt":"2026-01-20T22:06:09","slug":"donald-trump-the-madman-theory-and-why-even-australia-is-not-safe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/426340\/","title":{"rendered":"Donald Trump, the madman theory, and why even Australia is not safe"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">In the year since Donald Trump was inaugurated, world leaders have streamed into the White House to kiss the ring.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Some, including Australia&#8217;s Anthony Albanese, emerge from their meetings still smiling. Some do not.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">A stony-faced delegation from Denmark and Greenland went viral last week after their chat with the US president&#8217;s team seemed to go so badly it sparked an impromptu debrief \u2014 complete with cigarettes \u2014 in a nearby car park.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">But 12 months into Trump&#8217;s second term, something has become clear: even those who leave the Oval Office with a deal, beware. It might not be worth the paper it&#8217;s written on.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">And yes, that goes for Australia, too.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Two men in suits standing and talking \" class=\"Image_image__5tFYM ContentImage_image__DQ_cq\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/872903749eb56f60310a4bb538196414.jpeg\" loading=\"lazy\" data-component=\"Image\" data-lazy=\"true\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"Typography_base__sj2RP FigureCaption_text__zDxQ5 Typography_sizeMobile12__w_FPC Typography_lineHeightMobile20___U7Vr Typography_regular__WeIG6 Typography_colourInherit__dfnUx\" data-component=\"Typography\">Donald Trump greets Anthony Albanese outside the White House last year. (Reuters: Kevin Lamarque)<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">This hypothesis stacked up at the weekend, when Trump blindsided eight allies by announcing new tariffs on them.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">On Saturday, the president said France, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, Finland and the United Kingdom would all face an additional 10 per cent levy on exports to the US from February 1 unless they supported his plan to buy Greenland.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">If a deal isn&#8217;t done by June, the tariffs would rise to 25 per cent, he said in a social media post.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">The president&#8217;s threats come despite the European Union (EU), which represents all the affected countries except the UK and Norway, having negotiated a trade agreement with the US in July last year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;It&#8217;s a good deal for everybody,&#8221; Trump said at the time. &#8220;It&#8217;s going to bring us closer together.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">That sentiment lasted less than six months.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2026-01-20\/donald-trump-greenland-message-analysed-line-by-line\/106246964\" data-component=\"FullBleedLink\" class=\"RelatedCard_link__rsgR9 FullBleedLink_root__lTw_U interactive_focusContext__yRhc_ interactive_defaults__AKxUU FullBleedLink_showVisited__g3Xvz\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Donald Trump&#8217;s text to Norway&#8217;s prime minister, annotated<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"Typography_base__sj2RP RelatedCard_synopsis__cFwMW Typography_sizeMobile14__u7TGe Typography_lineHeightMobile20___U7Vr Typography_regular__WeIG6 Typography_colourInherit__dfnUx\" data-component=\"Typography\">A text message from the US president to Norway&#8217;s prime minister has fanned the flames of the geopolitical dumpster fire engulfing Greenland. We&#8217;ve analysed Donald Trump&#8217;s claims to see if they stack up.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">The UK, which had still been thrashing out a new deal with the US, is scrambling to assess its new reality.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Britain, like Australia, had been under the impression its relationship with the Trump White House was rock solid.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">The president, whose late mother was Scottish, last year even said the UK would be protected from future tariffs &#8220;because I like them&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Downing Street had pulled out all the stops to ingratiate itself to Trump. On his first visit to the Oval Office, British PM Sir Keir Starmer brought a letter from King Charles III inviting Trump for an unprecedented second state visit.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Could efforts like this have counted for nothing?<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">California&#8217;s Governor Gavin Newsom, who&#8217;s considered a potential future US presidential candidate, thinks so, saying world leaders are being &#8220;played&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;It&#8217;s embarrassing,&#8221; he told reporters after arriving in Davos, Switzerland on Tuesday for the World Economic Forum.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Trump is expected to address that gathering on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p>Trump and the madman theory<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Albanese visited the White House in October and <a class=\"Link_link__kR0xA Link_link__5eL5m ScreenReaderOnly_srLinkHint__OysWz Link_showVisited__C1Fea Link_showFocus__ALyv2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2025-10-21\/donald-trump-and-anthony-albanese-meet-in-washington\/105914030\" data-component=\"Link\" data-uri=\"coremedia:\/\/article\/105914030\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">his meeting was widely lauded back home as a major success.<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">While Australia has been slapped with a 10 per cent tariff on its exports to the US, the PM has even been able to frame that as a victory, given it&#8217;s the president&#8217;s stated minimum level for all nations.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">But we&#8217;re learning no-one is safe when Trump changes his mind, and some argue there is no issue too trivial for the 79-year-old to pick a fight over.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;The reality that the US president has the reasoning power of a kindergarten child is probably more compelling than that he&#8217;s slipping into cognitive decline,&#8221; wrote former Australian foreign minister Bob Carr in a social media post this week.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Could Trump take issue with the Albanese government&#8217;s freshly passed tighter gun laws and hate speech reforms, given his scepticism of those matters in the US?<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Could the president target Australia if it rejects its invitation to pay $US1 billion ($1.49 billion) and <a class=\"Link_link__kR0xA Link_link__5eL5m ScreenReaderOnly_srLinkHint__OysWz Link_showVisited__C1Fea Link_showFocus__ALyv2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2026-01-19\/australia-asked-to-join-trump-s-gaza-board-of-peace-\/106242966\" data-component=\"Link\" data-uri=\"coremedia:\/\/article\/106242966\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">join his so-called global Board of Peace?<\/a> When France declined, Trump threatened to introduce 200 per cent tariffs on its wine and champagne exports.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Trump has previously expressed support for a British government plan to return the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, but on Tuesday, he called it an &#8220;act of great stupidity&#8221;. Could the president next decide he no longer likes the AUKUS defence pact, too?<\/p>\n<p>Loading<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">James D Boys, a senior visiting research fellow at University College London&#8217;s Centre on US Politics, says no country is immune from the US president&#8217;s threats.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;If I&#8217;m the leadership in Australia right now, I&#8217;d be keeping my head down and trying to stay out of the way,&#8221; he says.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;I&#8217;d be trying to stay well away from everything that&#8217;s going on with Greenland and the NATO alliance.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Boys, in his soon-to-be-released book, argues Trump negotiates using the madman theory.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">It&#8217;s a political strategy in which a leader purposely appears unhinged, and even makes extreme threats, in a bid to exact concessions from others.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;Controversial though that might be, it would seem to have worked,&#8221; Boys says.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;If you&#8217;re Donald Trump, you&#8217;d look at past actions like threatening Venezuela. Venezuela didn&#8217;t play ball. Their leader is now languishing in an American prison.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;There is a series of examples like that. In the case of Greenland, the Trump administration realises that if it wants other countries to jump, it has to impact their pockets.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;It will be interesting to see the extent to which foreign leaders are prepared to play ball now, though.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;I think European leaders are possibly looking at these latest threats and thinking we can&#8217;t keep falling for this trick.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">They&#8217;re meeting in Brussels on Thursday night to map out their next move.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In the year since Donald Trump was inaugurated, world leaders have streamed into the White House to kiss&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":426341,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[2490,10835,43,44,4688,41,39,42,40],"class_list":["post-426340","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-donald-trump","tag-greenland","tag-headlines","tag-news","tag-tariffs","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/426340","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=426340"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/426340\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/426341"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=426340"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=426340"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=426340"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}