{"id":426838,"date":"2026-01-21T03:16:15","date_gmt":"2026-01-21T03:16:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/426838\/"},"modified":"2026-01-21T03:16:15","modified_gmt":"2026-01-21T03:16:15","slug":"breakfast-briefing-the-rise-and-rise-of-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/426838\/","title":{"rendered":"Breakfast briefing: The rise and rise of risk"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here’s our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news long term bond yields are on the move higher, notably in Japan and the US.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

First however, the overnight dairy auction<\/a> delivered a modest gain, up +1.5% in USD terms, but up +0.4% in NZD terms as the US dollar is weakening. However, most of this rise is the same as recorded in last week’s Pulse event. But it does cement a second consecutive rise in the full auction after nine consecutive declines. So +7.8% of rises after the -22.5% of falls. Also notable is the much less buyer interest from China, counterbalanced by stronger interest from most other regions.<\/p>\n

In the US, markets have returned after a chaotic weekend politically to a weak ADP weekly jobs report,<\/a> recording just +8000 jobs gains and well within the margin of error. January is starting out tough in their labour market. But at least it wasn’t a decline.<\/p>\n

The US Supreme Court issued three decisions overnight but did not decide the closely watched dispute over the legality of the Trump tariff-taxes. they gave no indication when they will. Also delayed is Trump’s ‘imminent decision’ on his Fed boss nomination. Apparently all his candidates have issues.<\/p>\n

Also weak is the USD. It is now under 7 CNY to the USD and its lowest since 2023.<\/p>\n

In China, household borrowing is weak and household savings is strong, up +10% in 2025. That says a lot about the stress Chinese households are feeling going into 2026. Per capita bank deposits have now risen to over \u00a5118,000 (NZ$29,000). And we should probably note that Chinese smartphone shipments fell in 2025, the second year in a row this has occurred.<\/p>\n

In Taiwan they reported<\/a> export orders in December exceeding US$76 bln, far and away a new record high and +43% higher than year ago levels. The Taiwan miracle continues. For all of 2025 these export orders rose +26%.<\/p>\n

In Malaysia, they reported<\/a> good December exports too, up more than +10% from the same month a year ago to just over US$37 bln and maintaining a strong trade surplus.<\/p>\n

In Germany, producer price deflation<\/a> picked up slightly to -2.5% in December from a year ago to cap a 2025 year where it averaged -1.2%.<\/p>\n

But overall German investor economic sentiment<\/a> picked up notably in January, and that was also enough to propel overall EU investor sentiment into positive territory in this wide survey.<\/p>\n

It is also probably worth noting that the Microsoft boss said overnight (at the WEF) the AI bubble could falter unless adoption of the technology picks up.<\/p>\n

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.28%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday and now its highest since September. The UST 30 year bond is now at 4.90% and its highest in almost ten years. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +68 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now at +30 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at +62 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.82%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up another sharp +7 bps at 2.35% and we make that its highest in 28 years. Its 40 year bond is now over 4.25% and its highest since our records began in 2007. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.78%, up another +3 bps from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.55%, also up +5 bps from yesterday.<\/p>\n

Wall Street has returned from its long weekend holiday with the S&P500 down a sharpish -1.6%. That Nasdaq is down a bit more than that. Overnight European markets were all lower between Paris’s -0.6% and Frankfurt’s -1.1%. Yesterday Tokyo closed down -1.1%. Hong Kong was down -0.3%. Shanghai was however little-changed. Singapore fell -0.1%. The ASX200 fell -0.7%. But the NZX50 ended little-changed with a small late firming.<\/p>\n

The price of gold<\/a> will start today at US$4750\/oz, and up another +US$78 from yesterday and a new record. Silver is is actually marginally lower at US$94\/oz and off its record high.<\/p>\n

American oil prices are up a bit more than +50 USc from yesterday at just over US$60\/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$65\/bbl.<\/p>\n

The Kiwi dollar is up another +50 bps from yesterday, now at just under 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 86.7 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 62.5, and up +50 bps from yesterday and its highest since early October.<\/p>\n

The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,708 and down -3.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +\/- 1.8%.<\/p>\n

Select chart tabs<\/p>\n

US$
\n AU$
\n TWI-5
\n \u00a5en
\n \u00a5uan
\n \u20acuro
\n GBP
\n Bitcoin<\/p>\n

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\n <\/a>\n<\/p>\n

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here \u00bb<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Here’s our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news long term bond yields…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":143805,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,164],"class_list":{"0":"post-426838","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-economy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/426838","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=426838"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/426838\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/143805"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=426838"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=426838"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=426838"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}