According to the study, \u201cprominent\u201d wind droughts have already been documented in Europe, the US, northeastern China, Japan and India.<\/p>\n
As the planet warms, wind droughts will become longer in the northern hemisphere and mid-latitudes \u2013 especially across the US, northeastern China, Russia and much of Europe \u2013 the paper says.<\/p>\n
The study \u2013 which focuses on onshore wind \u2013 warns that \u201cprolonged\u201d wind droughts could \u201cthreaten global wind power security\u201d.<\/p>\n
However, they add that research into the effects of climate change on wind supply can help \u201cprepare for and mitigate the adverse impacts\u201d of these prolonged low-wind events.<\/p>\n
Combining wind power with other energy technologies \u2013 such as solar, hydro, nuclear power and energy storage \u2013 can help reduce the impact of wind droughts on global energy supply, the study says.<\/p>\n
One expert not involved in the research tells Carbon Brief that the findings do not \u201cspell doom for the wind industry\u201d.<\/p>\n
Instead, he says the study is a \u201cnavigation tool\u201d which could help the energy industry to \u201ccounteract\u201d future challenges.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Wind drought<\/p>\n
Wind power<\/a> is one of the fastest-growing sources of energy in the world and currently makes up around 8% of global electricity supply<\/a>. It is also playing a crucial role<\/a> in the decarbonisation of many countries\u2019 energy systems.\u00a0<\/p>\n Wind is the result of air moving from areas of high pressure to areas of low pressure. These differences in air pressure are often due to the Earth\u2019s surface being heated unevenly<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n Human-caused climate change is warming the planet\u2019s atmosphere and oceans. However, different regions are heating at different rates, resulting in a shift in global wind patterns. The IPCC finds<\/a> that global average wind speeds (excluding Australia) slowed down slightly over 1979-2018.<\/p>\n There have already been dozens of recorded<\/a> instances<\/a> of prolonged low-wind events, known as wind droughts, which can drive down power production from wind turbines.<\/p>\n Dr Iain Staffell<\/a> is an associate professor at the Centre for Environmental Policy<\/a> at Imperial College London<\/a> who was not involved in the study. He tells Carbon Brief that wind droughts often \u201cpush up power prices\u201d as countries turn to more expensive alternative energy supplies, such as fossil fuels.<\/p>\n For example, Staffell tells Carbon Brief that, in the winter of 2024-25, Germany saw an \u201cextended cold-calm spell which sent power prices to record highs<\/a>\u201d. (In German, this type of weather event is referred to as a \u201cdunkelflaute\u201d<\/a>, often translated as \u201cdark doldrums\u201d.) He adds:<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s important to note that I\u2019m not aware of anywhere in the world that has suffered a blackout<\/a> because of a wind drought.\u201d<\/p>\n Capacity factor<\/p>\n The productivity of wind power sites is often measured by their \u201ccapacity factor<\/a>\u201d \u2013 the amount of electricity that is actually generated over a period of time, relative to the maximum amount that could have been generated in theory.<\/p>\n A capacity factor of one indicates that wind turbines are generating the maximum possible amount of electricity, while zero indicates that they are not producing any power.\u00a0<\/p>\n The authors define a wind drought as the 20th percentile in each grid cell \u2013 in other words, winds ranking in the slowest bottom fifth of winds typically recorded in the region.<\/p>\n They look at the frequency of prolonged wind droughts and how that might change as the world warms.<\/p>\n The map below shows regions\u2019 average capacity factor at 100 metres above the ground level, derived from the ERA5 reanalysis data<\/a> over 1980-2022, where darker shading indicates a higher capacity factor.<\/p>\n It also shows 19 wind droughts recorded since the year 2000 across Europe, the US, northeastern China, Japan and India. Wind droughts are indicated by yellow triangles for local events and hashed areas for larger-scale events.<\/p>\n The map also shows that the darker shading for \u201cabundant wind resources\u201d is typically found in the mid-latitudes near \u201cmajor storm tracks\u201d, including the central US, northern Africa, northwestern Europe, northern Russia, northeastern China and Australia.<\/p>\n Modelling wind<\/p>\n To assess the severity of past and future wind droughts, the authors consider both the frequency and duration of these low-wind events.<\/p>\n To calculate wind drought duration, the authors use reanalysis data and models from the \u00a0sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project<\/a> (CMIP6) \u2013 the international modelling effort that feeds into the influential assessment reports<\/a> from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change<\/a> (IPCC).\u00a0<\/p>\n The authors then look at how wind drought conditions may change in the future, by modelling wind speeds over 2015-2100 under a range of future warming scenarios.<\/p>\n They find that wind drought frequency and duration will both increase in the northern hemisphere and mid-latitudes by the end of the century. The authors identify \u201cparticularly notable increases\u201d in wind drought frequency in the US, northeastern China, Russia and much of Europe.<\/p>\n In the northern mid-latitudes, there will be a one-to-two hour increase in average wind drought duration by the end of the century under the moderate SSP2-4.5 scenario<\/a>, according to the study. This is a 5-15% increase compared to today\u2019s levels.<\/p>\n The authors also assess \u201cextreme long-duration events\u201d by looking at the longest-lasting wind drought that could happen once every 25 years.<\/p>\n The study projects roughly a 10%, 15% and 20% \u201celongation\u201d in these long-duration wind droughts across \u201cmuch of the northern mid-latitude regions\u201d under the low, moderate and very high warming scenarios, by the end of the century.<\/p>\n However, the authors find \u201cstrong asymmetric changes\u201d in their results, projecting a decrease in wind drought frequency and intensity in the southern hemisphere.<\/p>\n The authors suggest that the increase in wind droughts in the northern hemisphere is partly because of Arctic amplification<\/a> \u2013 the phenomenon whereby the Arctic warms more quickly than the rest of the planet.<\/p>\n Accelerated warming in the Arctic narrows the temperature gap between the north pole and the equator and alters atmosphere-ocean interactions, which reduces wind speeds in the northern hemisphere.\u00a0<\/p>\n Conversely, the authors suggest that increasing wind speeds in the southern hemisphere are caused by the land warming faster than the ocean, resulting in a greater difference in temperature between the land and the sea.<\/p>\n Record-breaking wind droughts<\/p>\n Finally, the authors also investigate the risk of \u201crecord-breaking wind droughts\u201d \u2013 extreme events that would only be expected once every 1,000 years under the current climate.\u00a0<\/p>\n They use CMIP6 models, based on historical data over 1980-2014, to assess how long-lasting such an event would be in different regions of the world. These results are shown on the map below, where darker brown indicates longer-duration wind droughts.<\/p>\n These 1,000-year record-breaking wind droughts typically last for 150-350 hours (6-15 days), occasionally reaching up to 400 hours in regions such as India, East Russia, east Africa and east Brazil, the paper says.<\/p>\n The authors go on to assess the risk of record-breaking wind droughts for existing wind turbines under different warming scenarios.\u00a0<\/p>\n The plot below shows the fraction of the CMIP6 models used in this study that project record-breaking wind droughts for onshore wind turbines.<\/p>\n Blue bars show the percentage of wind turbines that face a \u201cweak\u201d risk of exposure, meaning that fewer than 25% of models predict that the turbine will be exposed to record-breaking wind droughts by the year 2100. Green bars indicate a \u201cmoderate\u201d risk of 25-50% and brown bars denote \u201csevere\u201d risk of greater than 50%.<\/p>\n Each panel shows a different region of the world, with results for low (left) moderate (middle) and very high (right) warming scenarios.<\/p>\n The study finds that, globally, around 15% of wind turbines will face \u201csevere\u201d risk from record-breaking wind droughts by the end of the century, regardless of the future warming scenario. However, different parts of the globe are expected to face different trends.<\/p>\n In North America, the percentage of turbines facing a \u201csevere\u201d risk from such extended wind droughts in the year 2100 rises from 14% in a low warming scenario to 39% in a very high warming scenario. Europe also faces a higher risk to its wind turbines under higher emissions scenarios.<\/p>\n However, the trends vary across the world. In south-east Asia, for example, the percentage of wind turbines at \u201csevere\u201d risk of the longest wind droughts drops from 18% under a low warming scenario to 11% under a very high warming scenario.\u00a0<\/p>\n Energy security<\/p>\n The planet currently has 1,136GW of wind capacity<\/a>. The authors say that, according to a report<\/a> by the International Renewable Energy Agency<\/a>, \u201cwind power capacity is projected to grow substantially as the world pursues decarbonisation, aiming for 6,000GW by 2050\u201d.<\/p>\n The paper sets out a number of ways that energy suppliers could reduce their exposure to record-breaking wind droughts.<\/p>\n The authors say that developers can avoid building new turbines in areas that are prone to frequent wind droughts. They add:<\/p>\n \u201cOther effective mitigation measures include complementing wind power with other renewable energy sources, such as solar, hydro, nuclear power and energy storage.\u201d<\/p>\n Staffell tells Carbon Brief the study provides helpful insights for how the world\u2019s power supply could be made less vulnerable to prolonged low-wind events:<\/p>\n \u201cI don\u2019t see this study as spelling doom for the wind industry, instead it\u2019s a navigation tool, telling us where to expect challenges in future so that we can counteract them.\u201d<\/p>\n Staffell argues that there are \u201cmany solutions\u201d for combatting wind droughts \u2013 including building the infrastructure to enable \u201cmore interconnection\u201d between countries\u2019 power grids.\u00a0<\/p>\n For example, he says the UK could benefit from connecting its grid to Spain\u2019s, noting that \u201cwind droughts in the UK tend to coincide with [periods of] higher wind production in Spain<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n He adds:<\/p>\n \u201cIncreasing flexibility and diversity in power systems is a way to insure ourselves against extreme weather and cheaper than panic-buying gas whenever the wind drops.\u201d<\/p>\n Similarly, Dr Enrico Antonini<\/a>, a senior energy system modeller at Open Energy Transition<\/a>, who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that wind droughts \u201cdo not necessarily threaten the viability of wind power\u201d. He continues:<\/p>\n \u201cAreas more exposed to these events can enhance their resilience by diversifying energy sources, strengthening grid connections over large distances and investing in energy storage solutions.\u201d<\/p>\n In a news and views piece<\/a> about the new study, Dr Sue Ellen Haupt<\/a>, director of the weather systems assessment programme at the University of Colorado<\/a>, praises the \u201crobust\u201d analysis.<\/p>\n She says the work \u201cwould ideally be accomplished with higher-resolution simulations that better resolve terrain, land-water boundaries and smaller-scale processes\u201d, but acknowledges that \u201csuch datasets are not yet available on the global scale\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Dr Frank Kaspar<\/a> is the head of hydrometeorology at Germany\u2019s national meteorological service<\/a>. He tells Carbon Brief how additions to this study could further help energy system planning in Germany.\u00a0<\/p>\n Kaspar tells Carbon Brief it would be helpful to know how climate change will affect seasonal trends in wind drought, noting that in Germany, wind power \u201cdominat[es] in winter\u201d while solar plays a larger role in the energy mix in summer. [The UK sees a similar pattern.]<\/p>\n He adds that the study does not address offshore wind \u2013 a component of Germany\u2019s energy mix that is \u201cimportant\u201d for the country.\u00a0<\/p>\n![\"Wind](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot_2025-07-29_at_16.47.33-scaled.webp.webp\")
Wind droughts, indicated by yellow triangles for local events and hashed areas for larger regions. Shading shows the region\u2019s average capacity factor at 100 metres above the ground level, derived from the ERA5 reanalysis data over 1980-2022, where darker shading indicates a higher capacity factor. Source: Qu et al (2025<\/a>).<\/p>\n![\"One-in-1,000](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot_2025-07-29_at_16.48.49.webp.webp\")
One-in-1,000 year \u201crecord-breaking wind droughts\u201d, based on observed data over 1980-2014. Source: Qu et al (2025<\/a>).<\/p>\n![\"Fraction](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot_2025-07-29_at_16.49.24.png\")
Fraction of models used that predict record-breaking wind droughts for currently deployed wind turbines under different climate scenarios. Blue bars show turbines with \u201cweak\u201d riskgreen bars indicate a \u201cmoderate\u201d risk and brown bars denote \u201csevere\u201d risk. Source: Qu et al (2025<\/a>).<\/p>\n