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The writer is a fellow at the Manhattan Institute <\/p>\n
The Canadian province of Qu\u00e9bec is pursuing one of the world\u2019s most aggressive decarbonisation programmes \u2014 aiming to stop using fossil fuels for heat or transport within the next quarter of a century while selling more of its clean hydroelectric power to the US. But the province is using a neat trick to make all this work: it is having New York power plants produce those emissions instead.<\/p>\n
Electricity has flowed, mostly south, across this part of the US-Canada border for more than a century. Hydro-Qu\u00e9bec, the province\u2019s state-owned utility, generates more electricity than it needs, almost exclusively from hydroelectric dams. Qu\u00e9bec\u2019s government, which has touted itself as \u201cthe battery of North America\u201d<\/a>,\u00a0gets a windfall as its megawatt-hours are sold to neighbouring grids in New York and New England.<\/p>\n Up until a few years ago, about 100 times as much power flowed into New York as went the other way. New York prior to 2022 was getting around 6 per cent of its electricity from Qu\u00e9bec \u2014 but now it is Qu\u00e9bec\u2019s grid that is being squeezed. <\/p>\n The province\u2019s ambitious decarbonisation drive encouraged residents and businesses to swap gas and oil furnaces for electric heat pumps and to buy new electric vehicles, which have driven up electricity demand. Officials estimate they\u2019ll need to increase their generation capacity by about 20 per cent by 2035<\/a>.<\/p>\n Dry conditions have reduced reservoir levels and threatened the existing supply, forcing HQ to prioritise its internal stock over exports. This translated at first into reduced exports to the US, which fell by about two-thirds between 2021 and 2023. Then, in 2023, HQ began buying electricity from New York so its dams could store more water, and soon the dynamic flipped: New York was selling more power to Qu\u00e9bec than flowed the other way.<\/p>\n Last year, Qu\u00e9bec imported more than six times as much as electricity as it sold to New York. The province, in just a few years, went from being one of New York\u2019s primary electricity suppliers to consuming more power than any single New York-based electricity customer. These effects are straining the entire Northeast energy grid. Qu\u00e9bec\u2019s shift from supplier to consumer is driving up wholesale electricity prices in New York.<\/p>\n Qu\u00e9bec\u2019s purchases seem to be coming mostly from upstate New York\u2019s natural gas plants, placing further stress on the already-constrained pipelines between Albany and Boston. New England, as a result, is forced to burn more oil for its own grid on cold days than it otherwise would if New York gas plants weren\u2019t using it upstream to supply Qu\u00e9bec (and paying more for heating gas). This month, power also began flowing from Qu\u00e9bec to Massachusetts through New England Clean Energy Connect \u2014 about 1.1 gigawatts of \u201caffordable, stable hydropower\u201d from Canada. <\/p>\n