Welcome back to the Power Rankings.<\/p>\n
With three rounds remaining, there appear to be two tiers of flag contenders. But that doesn\u2019t mean we\u2019re ruling anyone out including Hawthorn, who are suffering from a painful fixture.<\/p>\n
See our ranking of every AFL club from best to worst after Round 21 below!<\/p>\n
FOX FOOTY, available on Kayo Sports, is the only place to watch every match of every round in the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership Season LIVE in 4K, with no ad-breaks during play. New to Kayo? Get your first month for just $1. Limited-time offer<\/a>.<\/p>\n How do the Power Rankings work? We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and\/or improve going forward. It\u2019s a little bit \u2018who\u2019s hot and who\u2019s not\u2019; part predictive, part analysis of what\u2019s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we\u2019d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.<\/p>\n A big thanks to Will Faulkner who filled in during our absence<\/a>. This week\u2019s rankings follow on from our post-Round 18 edition.<\/p>\n All times AEST.<\/p>\n 1. ADELAIDE CROWS (15-5, 144.1%)<\/p>\n Last week: Ranked 3rd, def Hawthorn by 14 pts<\/p>\n The Crows aren\u2019t losing to West Coast or North Melbourne, so they\u2019re going to end up with a better record than minor premiers Sydney had last year (17-6, 126.7%) – whether they finish on top of the 2025 ladder is more about everyone else than them. If they win the minor premiership Adelaide will have recorded the greatest season-on-season rise in AFL history; they\u2019re admittedly helped by the fact that we\u2019re now in an 18-team competition, but nobody has ever risen 14 positions from one season to another. The record is 13, by Collingwood across 2021-22 and Brisbane across 2018-19, two rises which kickstarted ongoing eras of success at those clubs. But it\u2019s funny how a footy season feels slow and then gets quick very quickly. You\u2019re doing all this work through the winter months and then suddenly you get to the qualifying finals, and you\u2019re one win away from a home prelim. That\u2019s when this Adelaide season is going to suddenly feel very real.<\/p>\n This week: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Sunday 5:10pm<\/p>\n Morris kicks 6 as Lions down Pies | 02:26<\/p>\n 2. BRISBANE LIONS (14-5-1, 112.1%)<\/p>\n Last week: Ranked 2nd, def Collingwood by 27 pts<\/p>\n The Lions had a very strong case to be No.1 this week. That was a heck of a win over Collingwood, making amends for the Easter Thursday blowout earlier this season, and more importantly they just feel more trustworthy than Adelaide because of history. It\u2019s a cliche with a factual basis; finals experience appears to mean something. And the Lions, who\u2019ve played 16 finals in the last six years, have heaps of it. They\u2019re absolutely still at risk of dropping out of the top four because their next three weeks aren\u2019t easy, and one slip-up could have them finishing 5th, but they\u2019ve proven they can win away over the last 18 months – so that\u2019s not as scary as it would\u2019ve been a few years ago. If you wanted to say the Lions should be premiership favourites we would not argue with you.<\/p>\n This week: Sydney at the Gabba, Saturday 4:15pm<\/p>\n Is Daicos demanding in the wrong spots? | 01:46<\/p>\n 3. COLLINGWOOD (15-5, 130.8%)<\/p>\n Last week: Ranked 1st, lost to Brisbane by 27 pts<\/p>\n We pointed out after Round 17 that the Magpies\u2019 draw had inflated their record a bit; they had only played seven games against the top nine. Three losses against top nine teams later, and the Pies are back in the pack. They are still clearly good enough to win the flag, and a reasonable part of the discussion around their recent decline needs the caveat of higher-quality opposition, plus it\u2019s always a bit unfortunate to lose consecutive games by a kick. They are not perfect but they\u2019ve also been pretty badly hit with injuries across the season. They are in the top tier of contenders, along with the Lions, Cats and Crows. We reckon the Suns lead the second tier of contenders from the Giants, Hawks, Dogs and Dockers, and whether you think any teams on that tier can win the flag is purely about your personal view of how narrow or wide the flag race is. (We think it\u2019s wider than most other analysts do, just because weird things can happen in a short finals series.)<\/p>\n This week: Hawthorn at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm<\/p>\n Are ‘alarm bells’ ringing for Pies? | 05:15<\/p>\n 4. GEELONG (14-6, 138.6%)<\/p>\n Last week: Ranked 4th, def Port Adelaide by 88 pts<\/p>\n The demolition of Port Adelaide joins a long list of traditional Geelong games – late-season Kardinia Park cakewalks. Think Round 24 2024 (def West Coast by 93), Round 23 2022 (def West Coast by 85), or the classic double-act of the genre across Round 22 and Round 23 2018 (def Fremantle by 133, def Gold Coast by 102). It\u2019d take a mighty effort to beat the combined margin of those 2018 games across this current fortnight but Essendon, their Friday night opponent, ain\u2019t great. Everyone is talking about them needing to feed Jeremy Cameron so he has a shot at 100 goals, and that\u2019d be great fun, but all this percentage matters too. The Cats could easily find themselves level on wins with Collingwood, Gold Coast and\/or Adelaide so building a bit more could be the difference between a qualifying and elimination final.<\/p>\n This week: Essendon at GMHBA Stadium, Friday 7:40pm<\/p>\n Cameron’s six goals down Port | 02:44<\/p>\n 5. GOLD COAST SUNS (13-6, 125.1%)<\/p>\n Last week: Ranked 6th, def Richmond by 84 pts<\/p>\n Right now, the Suns are the perfect test of how broadly you\u2019re willing to define the concept of a premiership contender. Can Gold Coast win the flag? In a literal sense, yes, they\u2019re eligible to do so. And they have a big chance of making the top four. Once you\u2019ve got the double chance anything can happen; there are realistic scenarios where they face Brisbane in a prelim, a team we recently watched them demolish. But if you actually asked us Can Gold Coast win the flag?, our gut reaction would be to say no, because it just doesn\u2019t feel right to suggest a club that\u2019s never even won a final could go all the way. History says you can\u2019t win a flag without at least some recent September experience<\/a>, and the best result in a debut finals appearance by an expansion club in the AFL era was losing a prelim (Adelaide 1993, GWS 2016); that feels like a realistic ceiling.<\/p>\n This week: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:35pm<\/p>\n Kingy slams Blues over Silvagni saga | 02:03<\/p>\n 6. HAWTHORN (13-7, 117.6%)<\/p>\n Last week: Ranked 7th, lost to Adelaide by 14 pts<\/p>\n Can the Hawks blame their fixture if they end up missing the eight? After losing a semi-final last year, they were given what we expected to be the fourth-hardest draw in 2025, based on getting double-ups against Brisbane, Collingwood, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Carlton and Melbourne. Admittedly the latter three teams have probably been worse than expected, but four of their losses have come against that group, and they still have second meetings with the Lions and Magpies to come. If they lose both but beat Melbourne in Round 23, as we\u2019re predicting<\/a>, they would end up going 6-6 against their double-ups and 8-3 against the rest of the league. We\u2019re not saying the Hawks have been robbed – they played a stinker against the Power in Gather Round, and have copped a few close losses to fellow contenders – but we\u2019re sure they\u2019ll be asking for a gentler run in 2026.<\/p>\n This week: Collingwood at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm<\/p>\n ‘Ross is right’ on push in the back rule | 01:50<\/p>\n 7. FREMANTLE (14-6, 113%)<\/p>\n Last week: Ranked 9th, def Carlton by 27 pts<\/p>\n Despite leaving them six years ago, Justin Longmuir has only now decided to turn Fremantle into Collingwood. They have won 10 of their last 11 games, the best record over that period of any club, but they don\u2019t feel as good as that. And close games are a big reason why; after all of the drama about last year\u2019s inability to be clutch, the Dockers have won five games by 13 points or less since the end of May, plus Sunday\u2019s comeback over Carlton which was much scarier than the 27-point margin suggests. But just like losing almost every close game overstated the problems in purple, winning almost every close game doesn\u2019t mean as much as you think. It should get them into the finals, assuming things don\u2019t go terribly over the next few weeks, but they do not feel like a legitimate flag contender especially with Hayden Young sidelined again. Keep in mind that top 9 teams have won 34 of their last 35 games against the bottom 9… the one loss was by Fremantle. (Though it was away to Sydney and admittedly they were underdogs pre-game.)<\/p>\n This week: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 8:10pm<\/p>\n Freo survive Carlton scare in comeback | 02:23<\/p>\n 8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (12-8, 137.3%)<\/p>\n Last week: Ranked 8th, def GWS by 88 pts<\/p>\n