{"id":450401,"date":"2026-01-31T22:23:13","date_gmt":"2026-01-31T22:23:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/450401\/"},"modified":"2026-01-31T22:23:13","modified_gmt":"2026-01-31T22:23:13","slug":"attacking-the-space-how-data-revolutionised-rugby","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/450401\/","title":{"rendered":"Attacking the Space \u2014 how data revolutionised rugby"},"content":{"rendered":"

Unlock the Editor\u2019s Digest for free<\/p>\n

Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re in a golden age of rugby. The 2025 men\u2019s Six Nations saw the most tries in the championship\u2019s history, and the recent women\u2019s World Cup was the best ever. The boon has been attributed to investment and professionalisation, but one factor remains under-appreciated: data.<\/p>\n

Data, which has a short history in rugby compared with US sports or cricket, is prompting a revolution. Players now wear bio trackers that allow coaches to monitor performance, while smart mouthguards send injury alerts to doctors, and broadcasters use algorithms to predict goal kickers\u2019 success. Data, once regarded as a luxury, is now present in almost every facet of the sport.<\/p>\n

Attacking the Space, by the rugby analyst Sam Larner, is part of a trend aiming to satisfy sports fans\u2019 demand for more rigorous, statistical punditry. It\u2019s also the first book from a major publishing house to explore data in rugby.<\/p>\n

It is essential reading for commentators \u2014 who should downplay the importance of possession and stop fretting about kicking<\/p>\n

Larner has two central insights. The first is utterly counterintuitive: that if you want to score more points, you need to attack less. \u201cThis fallacy,\u201d Larner explains, \u201cstems from the idea that possession of the ball is like buying raffle tickets: the more you have the greater your chances of winning.\u201d <\/p>\n

In fact, as Larner argues, having the ball is a risk. At the elite level, where defence dominates attack, teams can only play an average of 5.4 phases before losing possession. When that possession is lost, the opponents\u2019 counterattack can expose a team before the defence is organised.<\/p>\n

To attack less, a team needs to kick more from open play. Kicking is generally unpopular (usually because it is considered less interesting than running with the ball) but, as Larner persuasively describes, kicking is what facilitates thrilling rugby. It is kicking \u2014 or even the threat of kicking \u2014 that forces defenders into the backfield, leaving more space out wide for the attacking team to exploit.<\/p>\n

\"Book<\/p>\n

The data backs this up. Forty-three per cent of tries come from the first phase (when a team receives the ball from a set piece, a turnover or a kick, and before the ball is briefly stationary after a tackle) and 64 per cent come within the first three phases. As Larner writes, \u201cWhether you like rugby for its romantic free-flowing approach or its chess-like complexity, kicking makes the sport better.\u201d<\/p>\n

It also makes a team more likely to win. About 75 per cent of matches are won by the team with the most kick metres (the sum of the distance of all kicks). Larner suggests one of rugby\u2019s next innovations will be that teams pick two adept kickers (one left-footed and one right) to mitigate acute angles and maximise kick metres.<\/p>\n

\"\"New reading for 2026<\/p>\n

Books from Amitav Ghosh, Maggie O\u2019Farrell, John Lanchester and others \u2014 here are some of the top titles of the year ahead<\/a><\/p>\n

Larner\u2019s second key insight evokes the approach to baseball described in Michael Lewis\u2019s Moneyball (2003), where an unsung metric \u2014\u00a0how often batters reach base \u2014 can predict the match result. In rugby, says Larner,\u00a0the\u00a0\u201ckiller stat\u201d is the difference between the number of times Team A enters Team B\u2019s 22-metre line, and the number of times Team B enters Team A\u2019s. \u201cThis statistic,\u201d he explains, \u201chas the closest correlation to team success than any other stat outside of points scored and conceded.\u201d<\/p>\n

Attacking the Space is informally written; and although the prose is sometimes garrulous, it is a book for those who want to understand what really happens on the pitch. Ahead of the Six Nations, it is also essential reading for commentators \u2014 who should downplay the importance of possession and stop fretting about kicking. Larner\u2019s book reveals rugby\u2019s secrets, and distils why the sport has never been better.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Attacking the Space: Inside Rugby\u2019s Tactical and Data Revolution by Sam Larner Seven Dials\/Orion \u00a325, 384 pages\u00a0<\/p>\n

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