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The AFL just has a top 10 now. The 10 best records make the finals and before the normal finals system begins, 7th will play 10th and 8th will play 9th.<\/p>\n
The only realistic impact this will have on the season is making 7th and 8th even less likely to win the premiership.<\/p>\n
If you want to look on the bright side, more teams will have some hope of making the finals deeper into the season \u2013 not good teams, but teams nonetheless \u2013 plus we\u2019ll have two more finals to watch. We like watching finals!<\/p>\n
The odds suggest a team that finishes 9th or 10th will win the flag roughly once per century \u2026 and even that seems generous.<\/p>\n
It\u2019ll make more sense once we expand to 20 teams, and we\u2019re back to the modern norms of half the competition playing finals.<\/p>\n
Tasmanian Devils aiming for VFL finals | 01:48<\/p>\n
So, yes, it\u2019s all a bit silly. But we also have to call it something, and sports fans know what you mean when you say \u2018wildcard\u2019. It is acceptable shorthand.<\/p>\n
And now we need shorthand for how we discuss the finals.<\/p>\n
For years, footy fans knew that 12 wins was roughly what you needed to make the eight.<\/p>\n
But we now play an extra 23rd game each season. And combined with the expansion to a top 10, we need a new reference point.<\/p>\n
How many wins should a team need to make the ten? (Jeez, that sounds weird.) And how many wins will you need to avoid playing in the wildcard round?<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s find out.<\/p>\n
Get all the latest AFL news, highlights and analysis delivered straight to your inbox with Fox Sports Sportmail. Sign up now!!!<\/a><\/p>\n Andrew Dillon, Chief Executive Officer of the AFL and Snoop Dogg. Picture: Michael Willson\/AFL Photos via Getty ImagesSource: Getty Images<\/p>\n WHAT HISTORY SAYS<\/p>\n We\u2019ve collected 13 seasons of data since the AFL went to 18 teams.<\/p>\n That includes the 2012-22 seasons when 22 games were played instead of 23, with the win totals pro-rated up to a 23-game season, but excludes 2020 because that shortened season is such an outlier.<\/p>\n Based on those seasons, we know that 13 wins is the average total needed to make the top eight, while the average 10th-place finisher won just under 11.5 games.<\/p>\n The average 11th-place team won just under 11 games, so we can pretty clearly see the benchmark here.<\/p>\n If you win at least 11 games, you\u2019re a good chance of making the top 10 as a wildcard finalist, and more than 11 wins will almost always get you in.<\/p>\n We\u2019d call 11 wins the new rule of thumb, roughly the equivalent of needing 12 wins in a 22-game season \u2013 it\u2019s the goal, and with anything extra, you should be safe.<\/p>\n Meanwhile to crack the top six, and avoid the additional wildcard final, history says you need to win around 15 games.<\/p>\n Average wins for each ladder position (AFL 18-team era)<\/p>\n Includes 2012-25 excluding 2020, totals pro-rated to 23-game seasons<\/p>\n 6th: 14.89 wins<\/p>\n 7th: 13.77 wins<\/p>\n 8th: 13 wins<\/p>\n 9th: 12.25 wins<\/p>\n 10th: 11.46 wins<\/p>\n 11th: 10.95 wins<\/p>\n Watch The 2026 AAMI AFL Origin match LIVE on Kayo Sports | WA vs VIC Saturday 14 FEB from 7PM AEDT | New to Kayo? Join now and get your first month for just $1<\/a>.<\/p>\n Battle expecting fiery Origin game | 00:50<\/p>\n WHAT THE PROJECTIONS SAY<\/p>\n