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DJ Bien-AimeFeb 7, 2026, 10:00 PM<\/p>\n
Close<\/a>DJ Bien-Aime covers the Houston Texans for ESPN. He joined ESPN in July of 2022 after covering the New York Jets for the New York Daily News. He’s a former athlete who finished his college career at Louisville. You can catch DJ on ESPN Radio on his show “Talkin’ Texans.”<\/p>\n Multiple Authors<\/p>\n Rewind to the beginning of September, when there were 32 NFL teams gearing up for a run to Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California — home of Super Bowl LX.<\/p>\n Now, only two remain — with the Seattle Seahawks<\/a> set to take on the New England Patriots<\/a> on Sunday for the Lombardi Trophy.<\/p>\n The last time the Seahawks played the Patriots in a Super Bowl 11 years ago, Malcolm Butler<\/a> intercepted Russell Wilson<\/a> to effectively end the game, a play that would go down as one of the most memorable in Super Bowl history.<\/p>\n Most of the players from that game are retired, but the ripple effect remains.<\/p>\n Best of NFL Nation \u2022 Three catalysts to the Seahawks’ defense<\/a> This year’s Seahawks defense is similar to that 2014 Super Bowl team — with both teams allowing the fewest points in the NFL in the regular season. On the other side of the ball, Seattle has leaned throughout the playoffs on quarterback Sam Darnold<\/a>, who has diced up defenses to the tune of a 122 passer rating.<\/p>\n For the Patriots, they are led by second-year quarterback Drake Maye<\/a>. His regular-season success that led to him being an MVP finalist hasn’t fully translated to the postseason — where he has four touchdowns in three games and a 55% completion percentage, and he has also been sacked 15 times. In the regular season, Maye had 35 total touchdowns while leading the league in completion percentage (72%).<\/p>\n In the postseason, the Patriots defense has more than done its part. It has allowed 8.6 points per game in the playoffs — with the Los Angeles Chargers<\/a> being the next closest team after giving up 16 points in their opening-round loss to New England.<\/p>\n Here’s a look at some NFL Next Gen Stats that could reveal what will decide the Super Bowl:<\/p>\n Darnold under pressure<\/p>\n Throughout the playoffs, the Patriots have generated pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Against the Houston Texans<\/a> in the divisional round, quarterback C.J. Stroud<\/a> went 2-of-16 passing for 13 yards with an interception when pressured.<\/p>\n In the wild-card round, the Patriots held Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert<\/a> to three completions on eight attempts with six sacks. In the AFC Championship Game against the Denver Broncos<\/a>, quarterback Jarrett Stidham<\/a> completed one pass for 4 yards on 10 attempts when under pressure.<\/p>\n Darnold, though, has avoided turnovers and remained poised under 21 pressured dropbacks through two postseason games. He has gone 7-of-16 for 117 yards and four touchdowns (five sacks). In the NFC Championship Game against the Los Angeles Rams<\/a>, he threw three touchdowns under pressure (5-of-11 for 102 yards).<\/p>\n Sam Darnold completed 5-of-11 passes under pressure for 102 yards and a career-high three TDs against the Rams in the NFC Championship.<\/p>\n Across Darnold’s first two games against the Rams this season, Darnold threw zero TDs and three INTs under pressure.<\/p>\n Powered by @awscloud<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/Qojbfl5htk<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 26, 2026<\/a> <\/p>\n It has been a completely different tale from the regular season, as Darnold committed a turnover on a league-high 7.2% of his pressured dropbacks — including six interceptions and five fumbles lost. The Patriots have generated four turnovers caused by pressure through three postseason games after causing three such turnovers during the regular season (third fewest).<\/p>\n But protecting Darnold has been effective. Despite facing the second-highest blitz rate this season (35.1%), the Seahawks allowed just a 29.2% pressure rate (fifth lowest) and 38 unblocked pressures (seventh fewest). Every Seahawks starting offensive lineman finished in the top 12 at their position in pressure-rate allowed.<\/p>\n Protecting Maye<\/p>\n Maye was sacked on five of his 11 pressured dropbacks in the AFC Championship Game, resulting in his second-highest pressure-to-sack rate in a game in his career (45.5%), trailing only his 62.5% rate in the divisional round against the Texans (eight pressures, five sacks).<\/p>\n Maye has been sacked 15 times this postseason, which is the most by any player to reach a Super Bowl since the AFL-NFL merger 1970. He has taken a sack on 48.4% of his pressured dropbacks this postseason, more than double his 20.3% rate during the regular season.<\/p>\n The Seahawks defense this season, including playoffs, per @NextGenStats<\/a>:<\/p>\n \u2022 22.3% blitz rate (5th lowest) Drake Maye passer rating by situation (QB…<\/p>\n \u2014 NFL Researcher (@NFL_Researcher) January 28, 2026<\/a> <\/p>\n Patriots left tackle Will Campbell<\/a> allowed five pressures on 30 pass blocks in the AFC Championship (16.7%) and has now allowed four or more pressures in every game this postseason. Campbell has been tasked with difficult matchups, going against both Broncos pass rusher Nik Bonitto<\/a> (four pressures allowed) and Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr<\/a>. (three pressures allowed, two sacks) 14 times each. Bonitto generated the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL during the regular season (20.2%, minimum 250 pass rushes) while Anderson ranked third highest (19.5%).<\/p>\n However, it won’t get easier against the Seattle defense which is ranked tied for seventh in sacks (47).<\/p>\n JSN’s dominance from all over the field<\/p>\n Having an answer for Seahawks wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba<\/a> has been tough for teams this season. The All-Pro wide receiver led the NFL in receiving yards (1,793); when aligned out wide, he also led the league with 1,378 yards after he led the league with 956 yards when aligned in the slot last season.<\/p>\n In the NFC Championship Game, Smith-Njigba totaled 153 receiving yards, including 105 from out wide, and he also caught his first career touchdown when aligned in the backfield. The Patriots will be on high alert trying to figure out where he is.<\/p>\n Jaxon Smith-Njigba totaled a league-leading 1,378 yards when aligned as an outside receiver this season after pacing the NFL with 956 from the slot in 2024.<\/p>\n He is the only player in the Next Gen Stats era to ever lead the NFL in both categories.#SEAvsNE<\/a> | #SuperBowlLX<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/Z4k90wBBl4<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 3, 2026<\/a> <\/p>\n Smith-Njigba aligned out wide on 81.3% of snaps this season, but he was in the slot at a season-high 42.1% rate in the NFC Championship Game. This could be a factor if Seattle offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak<\/a> decides to have his star receiver avoid All-Pro cornerback Christian Gonzalez<\/a>.<\/p>\n Key matchup: Pats jumbo vs. Seahawks’ nickel personnel<\/p>\n The Patriots’ offense has used jumbo personnel on 18.4% of its snaps since Week 11 (115 of 624, including the playoffs). New England scored a league-high 13 touchdowns from the grouping during the regular season, while averaging 6.1 yards per play (third most). The biggest beneficiary is Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson<\/a>. He ran for 225 yards and scored four touchdowns on 23 carries out of jumbo sets this season.<\/p>\n Stevenson’s 9.8 yards per carry out of jumbo was a full three yards more than any other player in 2025, and the most by any player with at least 20 such carries in a season during the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). The Patriots rushed for 10 touchdowns out of jumbo as a team, two more than any other offense (Steelers, eight).<\/p>\n What set the Patriots & Seahawks apart was their ability to effectively defend against heavy personnel.<\/p>\n Seattle stayed in nickel on 77.8% of plays against sub packages (no other team was above 60.5%), leading the league in defensive EPA.<\/p>\n New England also ranked top 10 in both. pic.twitter.com\/Fd8r9ylDWJ<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 4, 2026<\/a> <\/p>\n The Seahawks rarely faced jumbo personnel throughout the regular season (26 plays, fourth lowest). But they matched jumbo looks with nickel personnel on 46.2% of those snaps.<\/p>\n More Maye<\/p>\n Maye’s downfield passes were among the best this season (10 or more air yards), leading the league with 112 completions while also posting a league-high 61.2% completion percentage. He also threw 19 touchdowns on downfield passes, tied with Darnold and Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford<\/a> for the most.<\/p>\n But in the playoffs, Maye is 9-of-26 on passes traveling over 10 yards (34%). If Maye can’t let it rip, expect him to run — as he recorded the third-most scramble yards this season with 423. He was especially effective when tucking to run on early downs.<\/p>\n Drake Maye totaled 65 rushing yards, a career-high six first downs, and a TD on the ground in the AFC Championship against the Broncos.<\/p>\n Maye scored his touchdown and the game-sealing first down on designed runs while scrambling three times for 57 yards.<\/p>\n Powered by @awscloud<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/3xdLHlKIVI<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 25, 2026<\/a> <\/p>\n On first- and second-down scramble rushes, Maye led the NFL with 46 carries, 330 yards and 16 first downs (tied for the most with Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes<\/a>). His scramble run rate of 10.7% on early downs was actually higher than his 9.1% rate on third down, making him one of 14 qualified quarterbacks to take off and run more often on first and second down than third.<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/nfl_macdonalds-seahawks-defense_16x9.jpg\")
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\u2022 38.1% pressure rate (4th highest)
\u2022 48.2% pressure rate with blitz (3rd highest)
\u2022 35.2% pressure without blitz (5th highest)<\/p>\n