Let\u2019s get you caught up on all the NHL action you missed over the weekend.<\/p>\n
There wasn\u2019t any. Cool, good column. See you next time.<\/p>\n
OK, we won\u2019t wrap it up quite that quickly. But with most teams getting only a couple of games in since this time last week, don\u2019t expect any major changes in the rankings.<\/p>\n
Instead, let\u2019s use this week as a bit of a reset and regroup before the rankings take a few weeks off. For example, now would be a good time to look at which teams have been on which lists so far this year.<\/p>\n
Bonus five: Observations about the rankings so far<\/p>\n
5. The top five has been relatively consistent: Only ten teams have appeared in the top five this year. That includes two teams that have been featured all 18 weeks: the Carolina Hurricanes, who\u2019ve held every spot from two to five at least once, and the Colorado Avalanche, who have been ranked first for 14 weeks and counting. The Dallas Stars, Vegas Golden Knights, Tampa Bay Lightning and Minnesota Wild have spent the last two months jockeying for the other positions. At the other end, the Edmonton Oilers were in the top five in our debut list, but not since.<\/p>\n
4. There\u2019s been more churn in the bottom five: We\u2019ve had 15 different teams show up there, which is already a record. No teams have been on the list every week. The Calgary Flames have the longest streak, with 16 straight appearances.<\/p>\n
3. Some of those picks don\u2019t hold up well: It happens every year, but with 25 teams showing up on either list, some of those picks are going to look bad in hindsight. That\u2019s especially true when you look back at the early weeks, where we can find some picks that I\u2019ll go ahead say don\u2019t age especially well. The Florida Panthers in the top five early? Defensible. The Winnipeg Jets? Maybe a bit less so. The New Jersey Devils? Oof. And on the bottom side, teams like the Boston Bruins, Seattle Kraken and Pittsburgh Penguins have defied expectations, but the big miss is the Buffalo Sabres, who were in the bottom five through mid-December. I\u2019m certainly not alone there, since I\u2019m not sure anyone saw their transformation coming. But a whiff is a whiff.<\/p>\n
2. About those missing teams: We\u2019re down to eight teams who haven\u2019t shown up on either list. That includes two Atlantic teams, the Detroit Red Wings and Montreal Canadiens, who\u2019ve at least had cases to make pretty much all year long. The Utah Mammoth have been surging lately, although I\u2019m not sure how I could find room for a fourth Central team. On the other end, the Ottawa Senators and Columbus Blue Jackets both got close bottom-five considerations before getting back on track. The Washington Capitals and Los Angeles Kings have both been right in the mushy middle pretty much all year long. And the Toronto Maple Leafs have been closer to the bottom than the top, but aren\u2019t going to get close enough<\/a>.<\/p>\n (For what it\u2019s worth, the Senators, Kings and Mammoth also made it all the way through last year without being on either list, and the Leafs haven\u2019t been on one since the 2022-23 season. I\u2019m assuming that\u2019s the only record-setting drought they\u2019re in the middle of.)<\/p>\n 1. The worst pick of all: You math nerds will have noticed that those 10 teams from the top five plus our 15 from the bottom five teams plus the eight that didn\u2019t make either list adds up to 33, and there are only 32 teams. That means that for the first time in a few years, we\u2019ve had the dreaded double team scenario, where one team makes both the top and bottom five in the same season. That shouldn\u2019t happen, except that you have to keep something in mind: I\u2019m not smart.<\/p>\n This year\u2019s team is the Jets, who\u2019ve gone from Presidents\u2019 Trophy winner to in the running for dead last. That\u2019s pretty much unprecedented, so I\u2019m not alone in being mystified by this team. But then again, you readers did try to warn me<\/a>.<\/p>\n On to this week\u2019s rankings\u2026<\/p>\n Road to the Cup<\/p>\n The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.<\/p>\n We\u2019ll have all your Olympic hockey coverage right here<\/a>, including our staff\u2019s bold predictions<\/a>.<\/p>\n 5. Minnesota Wild (34-14-10, +26 true goals differential*) \u2013 Leave it Laz to come up with an angle that feels brand new. In this case: Bill Guerin\u2019s Olympic picks, maybe not completely awful<\/a>?<\/p>\n 4. Dallas Stars (34-14-9, +32) \u2013 We\u2019re still waiting on the prognosis for Tyler Seguin, who had surgery on his ACL last month. Remember, the Stars can use his almost $10 million in cap space if and only if he goes on the season-ending LTIR. That would mean he couldn\u2019t return at any point in the playoffs, so they\u2019ll want to be sure before they play that card.<\/p>\n 3. Carolina Hurricanes (36-15-6, +33) \u2013 Worth noting: Not only are the Hurricanes one of the only contenders to have all their own first-round picks for the next few years, they also have an extra first from the Stars from the Mikko Rantanen trade. That one\u2019s not until 2028, so it\u2019s not a prime asset for this year\u2019s deadline. But it might make the Hurricanes feel better about moving other picks, which in turn could make them even more aggressive than usual about pursuing big names.<\/p>\n 2. Tampa Bay Lightning (37-14-4, +57) \u2013 Somewhat quietly, the Lightning have caught up to the Avalanche for the best won-loss record in the league, with both teams sitting at 37-18. Given how unbeatable the Avs looked in the first half, that\u2019s pretty remarkable. And it\u2019s got me questioning whether the Lightning should get the top spot. After all, they\u2019ve got the easier path to the final, so if they\u2019re even close to Colorado in terms of being the best team, their Cup odds should be better. That\u2019s what both the projections<\/a> and the other rankings<\/a> have said for the last few weeks.<\/p>\n We try to err on the side of caution in these parts, and for now that\u2019s what I\u2019m doing. But once the break ends, be ready for a new number one.<\/p>\n 1. Colorado Avalanche (37-9-9, +78) \u2013 For now though, make it 14 straight weeks on top for Colorado.<\/p>\n *Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.<\/p>\n Not ranked: Edmonton Oilers \u2013 I\u2019m still not quite sure what to do with this team.<\/p>\n As we mentioned up above, they\u2019ve appeared in the top five just once this year, in the first week. That\u2019s easy enough to defend, since they were back-to-back Western Conference champs. Then they had the same slow start they seem to have most years, one that\u2019s always eventually followed by a lengthy hot streak that makes all the early-season anguish seem silly.<\/p>\n It\u2019s fair to say that the Oilers have been better since hitting December as a .500 team. But it\u2019s also fair to say the big hot streak hasn\u2019t happened. It looked like it might be starting at the end of January, when the Oilers ran off a three-game win streak that was somehow their first of the year. But they followed that with three straight losses, all in regulation, including to the Leafs and Flames.<\/p>\n That sent them into the break cold, trailing the Knights by four points for top spot in the Pacific. (Vegas also has a game in hand.) Even worse, by points percentage they\u2019re also trailing Seattle and Anaheim. With the Kings landing Artemi Panarin, they should be back in play for a playoff spot. And there isn\u2019t likely to be enough spots in the Pacific for all of those teams. Somebody\u2019s going to miss out.<\/p>\n Could it actually be the Oilers?<\/p>\n No, it couldn\u2019t be. I still feel pretty safe saying that. And assuming Edmonton does make it, their path out of the division wouldn\u2019t be that foreboding. Put it this way: Only one team in the Pacific heads into the break with more wins than losses. That would be Anaheim, whose 30 wins lead the division. That\u2019s impressive for a rebuilding team, but is anyone picking the Ducks over the Oilers in a playoff series? Or the Kraken, or Kings? You\u2019d take Edmonton in any of those matchups, and probably wouldn\u2019t have to think too hard about it.<\/p>\n So in theory, the path is clear and not all that difficult. First, make the playoffs. Second, win an opening-round matchup that should be a warmup. Third, beat the Golden Knights, a tough opponent that hasn\u2019t looked right all year long. If all of that happens, the Oilers are back in the final four and we all act like we saw it coming all along.<\/p>\n If all of that doesn\u2019t happen, then things might get interesting for a team that\u2019s as all-in as you can be on winning a Stanley Cup, and winning it soon. Leon Draisaitl sure doesn\u2019t sound happy<\/a>, and he\u2019s not the only one questioning the goaltending. The Tristan Jarry trade hasn\u2019t worked, at least not yet, but you wonder if Stan Bowman even has a Plan B. They need more depth, especially up front, and are one of the teams under pressure to make a big add or two<\/a> before the deadline. But they don\u2019t have their own first-round pick, so some creativity might be needed.<\/p>\n I still think the most likely scenario is that Bowman adds around the edges, the team makes the playoffs fairly easily, and ends up giving Vegas all they can handle in a second-round showdown. But maybe that\u2019s just force of habit. It\u2019s 58 games into the season, and this version of the Oilers hasn\u2019t looked like a Cup contender with any kind of consistency. We can\u2019t just hand wave away the worst-case scenarios, because for now at least, everything is in play.<\/p>\n The bottom five<\/p>\n The five teams headed towards dead last and the best lottery odds for the top pick in this year\u2019s draft and a shot at Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg.<\/p>\n It was a weird and potentially costly week for Gavin McKenna. Other Sean has been all over the case, and has the latest here<\/a>.<\/p>\n 5. Chicago Blackhawks (22-26-9, -29) \u2013 A key detail here flagged by Scott<\/a>: the Hawks can indeed win the lottery and move up to the top pick this year. There are rules about a team winning too often, and the Hawks have picked in the top three for three straight years. But only the Connor Bedard pick involved moving up in the order, so it\u2019s the only one that counts as far as the limit. That means they can move up this year if Gary Bettman rigs it again the lottery breaks their way.<\/p>\n 4. Calgary Flames (23-27-6, -27) \u2013 One of the best parts about being a bad team is watching your opponents have an existential crisis when they lose to you<\/a>.<\/p>\n 3. St. Louis Blues (20-28-9, -54) \u2013 The Nick Bjugstad trade felt like a warmup. Jeremy looks at the bigger shoes still left to drop<\/a> in St. Louis.<\/p>\n And speaking of trades\u2026<\/p>\n 2. New York Rangers (22-29-6, -31) \u2013 That was not much of a return on Artemi Panarin<\/a>, was it?<\/p>\n On some level, that makes sense. Panarin has a no-move clause, and apparently was quite willing to use it as leverage<\/a> to control his destination. If he ultimately decided that it was L.A. or nothing, well, what else could the Rangers really do?<\/p>\n The only real answer is: Wait, and play a little bit of chicken. That\u2019s why the rush to get this done before the Olympic roster freeze seems a bit odd. Maybe this plays out differently if Chris Drury says something along the lines of \u201cLook, I know you want to go to Los Angeles, but their offer just isn\u2019t good enough. So you either need to give me another option, or hope they up their offer. Let\u2019s check back in two weeks and see if anyone has changed their mind.\u201d<\/p>\n Maybe somebody blinks and the Rangers get a better result. Or maybe it all falls apart, Drury ultimately can\u2019t even get the package he did get, and we all write eye-rolling pieces about a dumb GM obviously overplaying his hand.<\/p>\n Vincent gets into all of this in much more detail in this piece<\/a>, including whether Panarin would have refused to go anywhere at all.<\/p>\n Tell you what, let\u2019s put a pin in the Panarin talk for one minute\u2026<\/p>\n 1. Vancouver Canucks (18-33-6, -63) \u2013 They\u2019ve quietly built a nice little cushion at the bottom of the standings. This isn\u2019t shaping up as one of those years with a McDavid-level or even Bedard-level prospect waiting with the first pick, but in a way that\u2019s even more incentive to tank for dead last, assuring no worse than a top-three pick in a year where that still might get you the best player.<\/p>\n Not ranked: Los Angeles Kings \u2013 OK, back to Panarin. We talked about the Rangers side. What about the Kings?<\/p>\n