{"id":469402,"date":"2026-02-09T23:54:16","date_gmt":"2026-02-09T23:54:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/469402\/"},"modified":"2026-02-09T23:54:16","modified_gmt":"2026-02-09T23:54:16","slug":"why-this-election-result-is-a-geopolitical-earthquake-and-a-very-big-deal-for-australia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/469402\/","title":{"rendered":"Why this election result is a geopolitical earthquake and a \u2018very big deal\u2019 for Australia"},"content":{"rendered":"

Opinion<\/p>\n

\"PeterPeter Hartcher<\/a>Political and international editor<\/p>\n

February 10, 2026 \u2014 5:00am<\/p>\n

February 10, 2026 \u2014 5:00am<\/p>\n

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A geopolitical earthquake has struck the north-west Pacific. Its name is Takaichi. Japan\u2019s first female prime minister has just triumphed in a general election in which she won more seats than any prime minister since World War II, either in proportional terms or absolute numbers.<\/p>\n

Sanae Takaichi has won a so-called super-majority of Japan\u2019s lower house, or two-thirds majority, which gives her power to overrule the upper, to make law with a free hand, to launch the process towards a rewriting of Japan\u2019s pacifist Constitution if she so chooses. And she did it almost single-handedly.<\/p>\n

\"IllustrationIllustration by Dionne Gain<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a stunning result,\u201d remarks Yoichi Kato, a scholar with Waseda University\u2019s Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies and formerly a political correspondent for Japan\u2019s nationwide newspaper, the Asahi Shimbun<\/a>. \u201cThis enormous victory is a reflection of her personal popularity, not necessarily support for the Liberal Democratic Party.\u201d<\/p>\n

The centre-right LDP has ruled Japan for almost the entire postwar era, but its parliamentary numbers have been in continuous decline for the past dozen years. \u201cWe stand at a crossroads that will profoundly transform our nation,\u201d Takaichi said on Saturday, on the eve of polling day.<\/p>\n

Since Japan\u2019s \u201cbubble economy\u201d burst in 1989, it\u2019s been largely overlooked as a force. It suffered long economic stagnation and political drift. But Japan is a nation capable of rapid transformation.<\/p>\n

Through an exertion of political will, the Meiji Restoration<\/a> of 1868 transformed a poor, feudal, agrarian country into a wealthy, modern, industrialised power in just one generation. Its military defeated China and then Russia in short order in the early 1900s.<\/p>\n

\u201cTakaichi doesn\u2019t think Japan is a middle power, she thinks it\u2019s a great power,\u201d says Mike Green of the US Studies Centre at Sydney University, a long-time Japan expert who has known Takaichi since the 1980s.<\/p>\n

\"USUS President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Tokyo.AP<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the world\u2019s fourth-biggest economy, with deep pools of capital and technological expertise. \u201cJapan\u2019s defence spending is in the top five in the world and will probably surpass Britain\u2019s to become No.1 among US allies,\u201d says Green. Takaichi promises a revival of a strong economy and a powerful military. At the level of retail politics, she promises a two-year suspension of the 8 per cent consumption tax on food and offers more help for women, carers and families.<\/p>\n

Japan desperately hopes for change and voted accordingly. Even if the people aren\u2019t sure of exactly what changes they\u2019ll be getting: \u201cJapanese people feel a sense of deep frustration as they face stagnation in every field,\u201d says Kato.<\/p>\n

\u201cPrices, including rice, are going up, while their wages are not. The economy is slow, society is ageing, population is shrinking; we are not looking at a very bright future. Takaichi has given Japan a sense of hope, even if it\u2019s not well founded.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople are not really interested in finding the specifics of any policy area. They just wanted somebody who can give them a reason to be hopeful.\u201d A celebrity cult surrounds her \u2013 \u201csanakatsu\u201d or \u201csana-mania\u201d, playing on her given name, Sanae. So her black leather bag and pink pen, for example, have become hot items to own for young women. \u201cIt\u2019s shallow and emotional and lacks a reasoning foundation, but her followers don\u2019t care,\u201d explains Kato.<\/p>\n

How much of her support is bound up in her achievement of smashing through Japan\u2019s notoriously sexist traditions to become the first female prime minister? \u201cShe wasn\u2019t elected leader of the LDP and therefore prime minister because she\u2019s a woman,\u201d points out Kato. She just played the intra-party power game better than her rivals.<\/p>\n

The novelty of a female PM did promote the impression of breakthrough change, but the hope factor and her strength and outspoken personality were the dominant appeal.<\/p>\n

\"TakaichiTakaichi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea last October.AP<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think she won because she\u2019s a woman,\u201d says Mike Green. \u201cThe fact that she won as a woman shows how much Japan has changed. She\u2019s shown the Japanese people that she will fight for them.\u201d<\/p>\n

The scuba-diving enthusiast, former heavy metal drummer and car fanatic presents as a hard-driving personality who works non-stop. She has named Britain\u2019s Margaret Thatcher as her inspiration, inviting the nickname of Japan\u2019s \u201cIron Lady\u201d.<\/p>\n

Takaichi\u2019s image of strength was reinforced inadvertently by China. \u201cShe won, in part, because China tried to destroy her,\u201d observes Green. When she told the parliament in November that any Chinese attack on Taiwan could pose an \u201cexistential crisis for Japan\u201d and so trigger Japan\u2019s legal right to take military action in collective self-defence, crisis ensued. It was the first such clear declaration on Taiwan by a Japanese prime minister.<\/p>\n

Beijing excoriated her and imposed punitive trade sanctions on Japan. She stood her ground; her approval rating, already high, rose higher. She plans to confront Xi Jinping, not kowtow to him. Her tough attitude and direct speech have proved to be a popular break from the typical Japanese leader\u2019s wobbliness and waffling.<\/p>\n

Mike Green says that her entrenchment in power \u201cis a very, very big deal for Australia\u201d.<\/p>\n

Related Article\"Sanae<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cAlbanese said he agreed with [Canadian Prime Minister] Mark Carney\u2019s speech. That won\u2019t be Takaichi\u2019s tone. Carney talks about decoupling and hedging against the US; Takaichi talks about making Japan indispensable to the US.\u201d<\/p>\n

Donald Trump, who\u2019s repeatedly praised her strength and grace, congratulated her on her win. She replied by writing: \u201cThe potential of our Alliance is LIMITLESS.\u201d Green predicts that \u201cshe\u2019ll be encouraging Australia to push Trump to get his act together on trade policy, economic security and engagement with South-East Asia.\u201d<\/p>\n

Takaichi will intensify the US relationship because Japan has no alternative, says Green: \u201cIn the 1980s and \u201990s, Japan was on the front line with China. Now that China has enlarged the threat envelope, Japan is almost inside the front lines.\u201d<\/p>\n

She has put her people on notice that she will make hard decisions that they might not like: \u201cShe said repeatedly during the campaign that, securing a public mandate through election is essential to decisively pursue bold policies and reforms that could polarise national opinion, without fear of criticism,\u201d relates Kato.<\/p>\n

\u201cShe can now claim carte blanche. People will find out eventually what they\u2019ve entrusted her with. It could amount to an historical achievement. It could also be devastating.\u201d<\/p>\n

An earthquake of historic proportions will rearrange a country. Devastation is always a risk.<\/p>\n

Peter Hartcher is international editor.<\/p>\n

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\"PeterPeter Hartcher<\/a> is political editor and international editor of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect via email<\/a>.From our partners<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Opinion Peter HartcherPolitical and international editor February 10, 2026 \u2014 5:00am February 10, 2026 \u2014 5:00am Save You…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":469403,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,164],"class_list":["post-469402","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/469402","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=469402"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/469402\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/469403"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=469402"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=469402"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=469402"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}