{"id":471108,"date":"2026-02-10T18:12:08","date_gmt":"2026-02-10T18:12:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/471108\/"},"modified":"2026-02-10T18:12:08","modified_gmt":"2026-02-10T18:12:08","slug":"avatar-sequels-are-getting-harder-to-justify","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/471108\/","title":{"rendered":"‘Avatar’ Sequels Are Getting Harder to Justify"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tWould James Cameron<\/a> ever bid adieu to Pandora?\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cAvatar<\/a>: Fire and Ash,\u201d the director\u2019s third otherworldly adventure, is nearing the end of its box office run with\u00a0$1.4 billion\u00a0globally.\u00a0It\u2019s an\u00a0enormous sum\u00a0(ranking\u00a0as Hollywood\u2019s\u00a0second-biggest\u00a0release of 2025), but still\u00a0considerably\u00a0behind\u00a02009\u2019s \u201cAvatar\u201d and 2022\u2019s \u201cAvatar: The Way of Water,\u201d\u00a0both\u00a0of which soared above\u00a0$2 billion.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tIt\u2019s a feat for any movie to clear $1 billion these days. For cinema operators, who get a cut of revenues, \u201cAvatar\u201d is a gift because these are the rare films that remain draws for weeks on end. Disney has more at stake: The studio spent roughly $500 million to produce and promote \u201cFire and Ash,\u201d meaning the threequel can be insanely popular yet barely profitable. Any dwindling interest in Pandora is problematic because Disney has committed to two more installments, which are slated for 2029 and 2031.<\/p>\n

\n\tCameron, meanwhile, has expressed doubts about the series\u2019 long-term health. He joked last December that he\u2019d host a press conference to determine the franchise\u2019s fate after assessing the financial results for \u201cFire and Ash.\u201d In other words, he\u2019s aware that diminishing box office returns would make the film\u2019s exorbitant production costs harder to justify.<\/p>\n

\n\tIt\u2019s\u00a0admittedly bizarre to question the viability of a billion-dollar property. What studio\u00a0wouldn\u2019t\u00a0want that kind of windfall?\u00a0But back in 2022, Cameron told GQ that his \u201cAvatar\u201d blockbusters\u00a0represent\u00a0the \u201cworst business case in movie history\u201d given their break-even points of\u00a0roughly\u00a0$1.5 billion. Although \u201cFire and Ash\u201d will fall just short of that theatrical benchmark, the tentpole will recoup costs through Disney+ and other avenues.\u00a0The\u00a0company\u00a0also\u00a0is\u00a0banking\u00a0on\u00a0the film\u00a0inspiring\u00a0visits to\u00a0the Pandora area in Animal Kingdom at Walt Disney World in Florida.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cIt\u2019s one thing to say, \u2018This was profitable, not massively so, but the property benefits us in other ways, especially theme parks,\u201d says Stephen Galloway, dean of Chapman University\u2019s film school. \u201cIt\u2019s another to say, \u2018We\u2019re going to invest another $500 million twice,\u2019 if you\u2019re on this downward trajectory.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tCutting costs would be\u00a0the\u00a0obvious fix.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cI imagine Disney is doing a lot to put the brakes on\u00a0budgets\u00a0\u2014\u00a0and that may eventually lead to a breaking point,\u201d Galloway says.\u00a0\u201cJames Cameron makes expensive films.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tThat\u2019s a fact. Cameron, a man of many talents, isn\u2019t thrifty. Nearly every one of his movies, from \u201cTerminator 2\u201d to \u201cTitanic\u201d to all things \u201cAvatar,\u201d was at the time the most expensive ever made.<\/p>\n

\n\tThrough those films, however, Cameron has become a brand unto himself. He\u2019s the only director to boast four consecutive billion-dollar hits (three of which also generated above $2 billion). He\u2019s notorious for going over budget and falling behind schedule, but Cameron possesses an innate understanding of what audiences want to see on the biggest of screens. There\u2019s a reason that \u201cDon\u2019t bet against James Cameron\u201d has become a mantra in the exhibition community.<\/p>\n

\n\tIn the case of \u201cAvatar,\u201d a common\u00a0sentiment is\u00a0audiences\u00a0go\u00a0for the visual\u00a0spectacle\u00a0rather than the\u00a0story.\u00a0Box office watchers believe that\u2019s a factor in the drop off-for\u00a0\u201cAvatar: Fire and Ash.\u201d The threequel relinquished its crown after its fifth weekend. Meanwhile the first two films each ranked No. 1 at the box office for seven consecutive weekends on their\u00a0path\u00a0to $2.9\u00a0billion\u00a0and\u00a0$2.3\u00a0billion, respectively. <\/p>\n

\n\tA criticism\u00a0was\u00a0the three-hour-17-minute feature felt too narratively similar to the second film, without introducing the kind of\u00a0technological advancements that turned\u00a0\u201cAvatar\u201d\u00a0and \u201cThe Way of Water\u201d into phenomena.\u00a0Moreover, analysts suggest that not enough time\u00a0passed\u00a0between installments.\u00a0\u201cFire and Ash\u201d debuted just three years after \u201cThe Way of Water,\u201d a short gap compared\u00a0with the\u00a0previous\u00a0decade-plus wait.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cThere\u2019s a massive built-in fanbase,\u201d acknowledges Wedbush Securities analyst Alicia Reese. \u201cHowever,\u00a0there wasn\u2019t anything spectacularly different from the technology or storyline. If you saw the second and were pleased, you may have gone to see the third. But you might have heard from others that it\u00a0wasn\u2019t\u00a0as necessary.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tMeanwhile Disney in 2025 fielded two other billion-dollar smashes, \u201cLilo & Stitch\u201d and \u201cZootopia 2,\u201d that were much more profitable. Not only were those kid-friendly films far less expensive to make, costing $100 million and $150 million respectively, but they were consumer product juggernauts. \u201cLilo & Stitch,\u201d for instance, ranks among Disney\u2019s best-selling franchises with retail sales of over $2.4 billion in 2024, the year before the Hawaiian-set remake ventured to theaters.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u201c\u2019Avatar\u2019 is not a children\u2019s property, so Disney isn\u2019t going to have quite as much in the way of consumer products,\u201d Reese says. \u201cAnd it doesn\u2019t need the franchise to continue to benefit from the experiences side.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tGiven his track record, Cameron is unlikely to hear a no from Hollywood. He\u2019s equally unlikely to economize; the process of incorporating visual effects is enormously expensive. So industry observers emphasize creative direction. They think Cameron needs to find a fresh take on the Na\u2019vi to reverse the downward commercial track.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cIf Cameron can build upon\u00a0the story, the fourth is going to be spectacular,\u201d Reese\u00a0says. \u201cAnd he is certainly capable of this. Look at \u2018Titanic.\u2019 Look at \u2018Terminator.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Would James Cameron ever bid adieu to Pandora?\u00a0 \u201cAvatar: Fire and Ash,\u201d the director\u2019s third otherworldly adventure, is…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":471109,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[64,63,14709,134,9164,344],"class_list":["post-471108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-movies","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-avatar","tag-entertainment","tag-james-cameron","tag-movies"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/471108","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=471108"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/471108\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/471109"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=471108"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=471108"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=471108"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}