The players are heading out the tunnel. Not long to go now. The Aviva looks fantastic!<\/p>\n
Share<\/a><\/p>\n The Opta supercomputer has crunched the numbers and chucked out a predicted result.<\/p>\n Drumroll please\u2026.<\/p>\n Ireland 35-18 Italy<\/p>\n Phew, seems steep to me, but then I\u2019m not a supercomputer.<\/p>\n According to the mechanical boffin, Ireland have a 84.6% chance of winning.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Jeremy Boyce has written in:<\/p>\n Hi Daniel.<\/p>\n I am REALLY looking forward to this match. I\u2019ve been \u201cwith\u201d Italy ever since they made it a 6 Nations but obviously reasons to be cheerful have been thin on the ground. Until now. Sergio Parisse was world class and was surely only a question of time before other high class Italians emerged. <\/p>\n Yes, the stats say that Ireland are 5 – 0 from their last meetings. But in the spirit of Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead, does that make it more likely or less likely that they will win again this time ? Is it more likely than ever that Italy will break the sequence ? Or that Ireland will continue it ? Or is it always 50 – 50, 23 v 23 on the day ?<\/p>\n As my 3rd year (I was 13) Maths teacher explained to us when we moved on to Statistics, \u201cYou can prove anything you like with statistics.\u201d Maths wasn\u2019t my strong subject, but that message stuck.<\/p>\n I\u2019ll be hoping to sink a Prosecco Black Velvet at 80 minutes.<\/p>\n Ciao !<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n It\u2019s been 13 years since Italy last beat Ireland. <\/p>\n After the shock 22-15 reverse in Rome in 2013, Ireland slipped to 9th in the world rankings and Brian O\u2019Driscoll was cited for a stamp to an Italian\u2019s chest.<\/p>\n Andy Farrell is waxing lyrical about the Azzuri, calling them \u201cthe best Italian side he\u2019s faced\u201d.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Gonzaloi Quesada is expecting an \u201cIrish backlash. France made Ireland look less than they are. We must do everything to make sure they don\u2019t look that good today.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Just seen a stat from Russ Petty concerning the expereince of the two teams.<\/p>\n In terms of caps, Ireland\u2019s starting XV have an average of 30.<\/p>\n Italy\u2019s is 37.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>History made today<\/p>\n For the first time ever, a Six Nations<\/a> match will be officiated by a woman.<\/p>\n It\u2019s taken a long time but we\u2019ve finally got here and it\u2019s the remarkable Holly Davidson who will don the whistle and forge a new path for the sport.<\/p>\n She sat down with Don McRae for a wide ranging chat about the game, her journey and what she\u2019s expecting this afternoon.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Perhaps a more telling stat is the last five meetings between the two teams.<\/p>\n Ireland have all of them. The last time they played here they ran out 36-0 winners. The time before that it was 33-7. The time before that was 57-6.<\/p>\n However, the Italians ran them close last season and were it not for a Dan Sheehan hat-trick, they might have lost.<\/a><\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n I just had a quick glance at the last five games for both teams and it\u2019s perhaps no surprise to learn that Italy are the form outfit of the two.<\/p>\n Ireland have lost to France, South Africa and New Zealand with wins over Australia and Japan.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Italy have beaten Australia, Chile and Scotland. Their only two defeats have come against the all conquering Boks.<\/p>\n Does that teach us anything about today\u2019s game? Not really. Unless of course it totally does and we should all expect an Italian romp.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Italy team<\/p>\n Se non \u00e8 rotto, non aggiustarlo<\/p>\n That\u2019s, if it aint broke, don\u2019t fix, at least according to Google translate.<\/p>\n Just the one change to the side that did the business against Scotland. Ignacio Brex, one half of that world class midfield pair I was talking about before, is out for personal reasons.<\/p>\n That means 23-year-old Leonardo Marin, all 1.88 metres of him, slots in at 12. There\u2019s still no Ange Capuozzo \u2013 ditto for a bunch of star players like Tommaso Allan, Sebastian Negri, Ross Vintcent, Gianmarco Lucchesi, Martin Page-Relo, Stephen Varney and Jacopo Trulla. But there\u2019s plenty of firepower on the wings.<\/p>\n Quick tangent, I\u2019m just such a fan of Monty Ione. Hope he goes well today. Oh, keep an eye out for English born Paolo Odogwu off the bench. And if you have time, check his Instagram account where he shows off creative side. <\/a><\/p>\n Italy: Pani; Lynagh, Marin, Menoncello, Ioane; P Garbisi, Fusco; Fischetti, Nicotera, Ferrari; N Cannone, Zambonin; Lamaro (c), Zuliani, L Cannone<\/p>\n Replacements: Di Bartolomeo, Spagnolo, Hasa, Ruzza, Favretto, Odiase, A Garbisi, Odogwu<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Ireland team<\/p>\n Sam Prendergast keeps the 10 jersey despite some rumblings around his performance in Paris.<\/p>\n James Low returns to the wing as Jamison Gibson-Park drops to the bench.<\/p>\n Munster lock Edwin Edogbo is poised to earn his Ireland debut off the bench, while Tadhg Furlong is also among the replacements after returning to training this week.<\/p>\n Ireland: Osborne; Baloucoune, Ringrose, McCloskey, Lowe; S Prendergast, Casey; Loughman, Sheehan, Clarkson; McCarthy, Ryan; Izuchukwu, Doris (c), Conan.<\/p>\n Replacements: Kelleher, O\u2019Toole, Furlong, Edogbo, Beirne, Timoney, Gibson-Park, Crowley<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Preamble It wasn\u2019t too long ago that this would have been a doddle.<\/p>\n Ruthless, clinical Ireland at fortress Dublin. Scrappy but sloppy Italy on the round. We\u2019d be wondering about margins of victory, not contemplating the outcome after 80 minutes.<\/p>\n But the past is a foreign country and a lot can change in a short amount of time.<\/p>\n Now it is Italy who arrive on the emerald isle with the wind in their sails. A valiant show in a monsoon saw them edge Scotland 18-15<\/a> last week. They have arguably the best midfield pair in the world, slick half-backs, dazzlers out wide and a pack that matches the steel of their coach, Gonzalo Quesada.<\/p>\n As for Ireland, they are facing something close to an existential crisis after taking a battering in Paris<\/a>. There are questions around the age of the squad, the capabilities of their young fly-halves, and whether or not Andy Farrell\u2019s sojourn with the Lions has stifled Ireland\u2019s progress.<\/p>\n Look, they still should win. But it\u2019s not a forgone conclusion. I predict a proper ding-dong. This would rank among Italy\u2019s greatest ever scalps and one of the darkest days in Ireland\u2019s modern history.<\/p>\n It\u2019s a tall order, but don\u2019t be shocked if it happens.<\/p>\n Kick-off at 14:10 in Dublin. Teams and other updates to come til then.<\/p>\n![\"Daniel](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Daniel_Gallan.png\")
Daniel Gallan<\/p>\n