{"id":481580,"date":"2026-02-15T12:29:09","date_gmt":"2026-02-15T12:29:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/481580\/"},"modified":"2026-02-15T12:29:09","modified_gmt":"2026-02-15T12:29:09","slug":"how-much-power-potential-do-red-sox-realistically-have","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/481580\/","title":{"rendered":"How much power potential do Red Sox realistically have?"},"content":{"rendered":"

When last season ended it wasn\u2019t a secret what the Red Sox needed to do over the winter. The offense lacked a power bat, and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow wasn\u2019t shy about that being among the club\u2019s top priorities.<\/p>\n

While the Red Sox roster has improved as a whole, the club failed in that pursuit.<\/p>\n

The Red Sox did not land either of the top power hitters on the free agent market \u2014 Pete Alonso signed with the Baltimore Orioles and Kyle Schwarber returned to the Philadelphia Phillies \u2014 and Alex Bregman wound up leaving to join the Chicago Cubs.<\/p>\n

Once that happened the club pivoted to run prevention, signing top free agent starting pitcher Ranger Suarez and trading for infielder Caleb Durbin, a talented young player but not anyone\u2019s idea of a masher. As a result the Red Sox head into 2026 with legitimate playoff aspirations, but also with one of the most power-deficient lineups in baseball.<\/p>\n

Breslow acknowledged that aspect of the offseason didn\u2019t work out as planned.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t think it\u2019s much of a secret, we pursued opportunities to bring in slug and when those didn\u2019t play out we looked at other opportunities to improve the team,\u201d Breslow said on Wednesday. \u201cThat said, we\u2019re talking about a large majority of a team coming back that was a top-10 offensive team in baseball with opportunities for guys to take steps forward because of the age and because of the development in front of them. I think there\u2019s going to be slug and power that emerges from this group, but I also think we\u2019ve got a pretty balanced lineup.\u201d<\/p>\n

But even if Breslow is correct, how much power potential does this group actually possess?<\/p>\n

Models paint dim view<\/p>\n

The preseason models do not view the Red Sox\u2019s power potential favorably. According to FanGraph\u2019s ZiPS model, Boston is the only club in MLB without a player projected to top 20 home runs. Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu and Trevor Story are projected as the club\u2019s leaders with 18 each, three others are listed with 17 homers and the numbers sag off from there.<\/p>\n

Incredibly, the model even projects that prospects Mikey Romero and Freili Encarnacion, the latter of whom hasn\u2019t even played above Single-A, will finish within the club\u2019s top-10 with 14 and 12 homers, respectively.<\/p>\n

The story isn\u2019t much different with the Steamer projection. That model has Willson Contreras leading the team with 19 home runs and only eight players in double figures.<\/p>\n

Asked about those forecasts, Breslow said he doesn\u2019t think it\u2019s worth getting overly caught up in public projections, noting he believes in not only the club\u2019s own models but also his players and staff.<\/p>\n

\u201cTrevor, right? He\u2019s going to be back and we anticipate another full healthy season and reason to believe there\u2019s even another step forward for him to take given so much of his time here was marred by injuries, and guys like Roman and Willy being healthy for full seasons,\u201d Breslow said. \u201cWe may have someone who hits for over 20 home runs, we may not, ultimately we need to win more games.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"2025Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu hit 22 home runs in only 115 games last season. (Stuart Cahill\/Boston Herald)
\nHealth will be key<\/p>\n

One important caveat with the Red Sox\u2019s projections is they do not anticipate a full-season workload for any of Boston\u2019s top hitters. Anthony is projected by ZiPS to play 134 games, Story 132, Abreu 122 and Contreras 116, and Steamer\u2019s numbers are even lower than that.<\/p>\n

Obviously health can\u2019t be taken for granted, but if those players can stay on the field they should all comfortably clear 20 home runs.<\/p>\n

That might represent an improvement from last year when the Red Sox only had two players top 20 homers, those being Story (25) and Abreu (22). Abreu did so despite only playing 115 games, and even without any proven thumpers the Red Sox ranked 15th in home runs anyway with 186 as a team, coming in just below the MLB average of 188.<\/p>\n

The Red Sox also ranked seventh in runs scored (786), and while hitting home runs wasn\u2019t a strength, where the club really excelled was hitting doubles. The Red Sox led MLB with 324, and the 28-double gap between them and the second-place Athletics (296) was equivalent to the difference between the A\u2019s and the seventh-place Phillies (268).<\/p>\n

Though the major projection models generally focus on individual players and not on teams as a whole, the Red Sox should be well positioned to lead the league in doubles again.<\/p>\n

Would Bregman have helped?<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no question that Bregman is a terrific player who would have helped this year\u2019s team immensely. But in terms of power potential, he might not have moved the needle that much.<\/p>\n

ZiPS projects Bregman will hit 18 home runs in 131 games for the Cubs, and Steamer has him at 23 home runs in 142 games. Those are certainly better than the projections for likely third base candidates Durbin (10 ZiPS\/10 Steamer) and Marcelo Mayer (9\/8), but it\u2019s not like anyone expects Bregman to return to his 2018-19 heyday and become a 30-homer guy again.<\/p>\n

With Bregman on board the Red Sox offense would have been a supercharged version of what it appears to be today, which is a doubles machine with sneaky pop but which will ultimately rely on putting the ball in play and capitalizing with men in scoring position.<\/p>\n

\"BostonWhen healthy, Triston Casas arguably possesses the most power of any hitter on the Red Sox. (Nancy Lane\/Boston Herald)
\nCasas the wild card<\/p>\n

There is one player in the organization who does possess legitimate 30-homer potential. The problem is he may also be the club\u2019s biggest question mark.<\/p>\n

When healthy, Triston Casas has shown he can be a genuine middle-of-the-order force in the majors. During his lone full season (2023) he hit 24 homers in 132 games, and even when he was limited to 63 games in 2024 he still popped 13 bombs. Over his four big league seasons he has averaged 29 homers per 162 games. The problem, obviously, is he hasn\u2019t been able to stay on the field.<\/p>\n

This year Casas\u2019 role is yet to be determined. The club has brought in Contreras as the new starting first baseman and the designated hitter spot is likely to be occupied by Masataka Yoshida and a rotating group of outfielders. Casas also hasn\u2019t fully recovered from last year\u2019s ruptured patellar tendon, so it wouldn\u2019t be a surprise to see him start the season on the IL and spend time at Triple-A getting regular at bats while completing his rehab.<\/p>\n

Playing time may be hard to come by early on, but ultimately the best version of the Red Sox lineup probably features a healthy Casas in the DH spot. It will be interesting to see if that comes to fruition by midseason.<\/p>\n

Midseason reinforcements?<\/p>\n

Ultimately if the Red Sox want to raise their power ceiling, they\u2019ll have to bring in some external reinforcements. Assuming the Red Sox are in contention as expected, it would make sense for them pursue a bat at the trade deadline.<\/p>\n

The most desirable target would be Arizona second baseman Ketel Marte, who the Red Sox were reportedly in on over the offseason before the Diamondbacks decided to pull him off the trade block. Marte is a switch-hitting second baseman who has recorded three consecutive 25-homer seasons, including a career-high 36 in 2024. He\u2019d come at a high price, but he\u2019d fit perfectly onto this Red Sox roster, especially if Mayer doesn\u2019t wind up taking a step forward in his second big league season, or if someone gets hurt.<\/p>\n

Another possible infield bat who Boston could aim for is Brandon Lowe. The former Tampa Bay Rays second baseman hit 31 homers last season but was just traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates, who appear to actually want to field a proper major league lineup and capitalize on reigning NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes while he\u2019s under team control.<\/p>\n

Maybe their offseason additions will pay off, but if the Pirates fall to the basement of the NL Central again Lowe will be an obvious trade candidate given that he\u2019s set to hit free agency at the end of the season.<\/p>\n

\"TrevorPower isn’t expected to be a team strength, but Trevor Story and the Red Sox could still surpass expectations. (Nancy Lane\/Boston Herald)
\nBest case scenario<\/p>\n

Realistically, this Red Sox team isn\u2019t built to swing for the fences, but that doesn\u2019t mean the club won\u2019t be capable of popping a few out from time to time.<\/p>\n

And if everything goes right, power might turn out not to be such a weakness after all.<\/p>\n

Besides Casas, the Red Sox\u2019s other big wild card is Anthony. Before making his debut Anthony was regarded as a premium power talent who had hit some titanic blasts during spring training and at Triple-A. But for everything else he did well as a rookie, that power didn\u2019t really manifest itself until August, when he settled in and hit six home runs over his final 21 games before suffering what wound up being a season-ending oblique injury.<\/p>\n

While it\u2019s best to keep expectations measured, is it really that farfetched to imagine Anthony going off for 30 home runs in 2026? Sure, 20-25 is more realistic, but if Anthony exceeds expectations then he could absolutely become the power anchor the Red Sox need.<\/p>\n

Abreu hitting 30 isn\u2019t crazy, either. He hit 22 last year in only 115 games, which equates to 31 over a full 162 games. Alex Cora has also committed to playing Abreu every day, including against lefties, so if he can stay healthy he\u2019ll have more opportunities to boost those totals.<\/p>\n

Others could outperform expectations too, and even if nobody reaches 30 home runs, four or five guys getting into the 20s would represent a huge step forward for what was already a pretty good offense. With a vastly improved starting rotation and a roster that looks better equipped to play defense, put the ball in play and capitalize on scoring opportunities, that modest power boost could be enough to elevate the Red Sox into a true championship contender.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"When last season ended it wasn\u2019t a secret what the Red Sox needed to do over the winter.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":481581,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[558],"tags":[5154,42152,64,63,5156,24617,15430,7815,5152,591,1831,6091,244326,16088,31839,85,79846,123838,71181,21936],"class_list":{"0":"post-481580","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-alex-bregman","9":"tag-alex-cora","10":"tag-au","11":"tag-australia","12":"tag-boston-red-sox","13":"tag-brandon-lowe","14":"tag-craig-breslow","15":"tag-ketel-marte","16":"tag-kyle-schwarber","17":"tag-mlb","18":"tag-pete-alonso","19":"tag-power","20":"tag-power-hitters","21":"tag-red-sox","22":"tag-roman-anthony","23":"tag-sports","24":"tag-trevor-story","25":"tag-triston-casas","26":"tag-willson-contreras","27":"tag-wilyer-abreu"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/481580","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=481580"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/481580\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/481581"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=481580"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=481580"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=481580"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}