{"id":485071,"date":"2026-02-17T05:16:09","date_gmt":"2026-02-17T05:16:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/485071\/"},"modified":"2026-02-17T05:16:09","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T05:16:09","slug":"be-it-scotlands-rugby-win-or-the-ukraine-war-my-hopes-get-dashed-when-the-real-world-intervenes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/485071\/","title":{"rendered":"Be it Scotland&#8217;s rugby win or the Ukraine war, my hopes get dashed when the real world intervenes"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-0-ZMFP5RGZJJAWZBJCT5RSNB6I4I\">For Scottish rugby or football fans \u2013 (and here I mean me) \u2013 there\u2019s an old family saying. \u201cIt\u2019s not the despair that gets you,\u201d one of my uncles used to say when Scotland performed badly on the pitch. \u201cIt\u2019s the hope.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-1-ATRPGAN5HZHA3BOX6OLT373WUM\">He meant that in sport when your favourite team does well, it ignites the hope that their winning ways will continue. And then they don\u2019t.<\/p>\n<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-3-AE3CSTMFWJAQHMHI65TOJDEA6U\">His wise words came to mind last weekend when the Scotland rugby team thrashed the England team to win the Calcutta Cup. Scotland \u2013 this is the hope \u2013 could keep winning and therefore win the Six Nations Championship. Yes, it\u2019s possible \u2013 but so are defeat and despair.<\/p>\n<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-4-6LTAJNV7EVHXXLZ662IVVSDT7I\">This sense of optimism tempered by reality infects international relations profoundly right now. The visit of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to the Munich Security Conference on Saturday is a case in point.<\/p>\n<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-5-OSCYGSWVVJGFPKVEQVJ74IHI7A\">As CNN\u2019s reporting put it, Mr Rubio delivered a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thenationalnews.com\/news\/uk\/2026\/02\/14\/rubio-reassures-europe-that-america-wants-a-new-century-partnership\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.thenationalnews.com\/news\/uk\/2026\/02\/14\/rubio-reassures-europe-that-america-wants-a-new-century-partnership\/\">\u201cValentine\u2019s Day Message\u201d<\/a> to America\u2019s European partners and that was for Europe to \u201cchange or get dumped\u201d. Well, combining tough love with ultimate rejection is one interpretation. It certainly echoes the despair across Europe from last year\u2019s Munich conference when US Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-7-AUKVX3Q4O5FVNLX7GOIZR2LBK4\">Mr Vance delivered a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thenationalnews.com\/opinion\/2025\/02\/27\/despite-the-us-russia-summit-we-neednt-return-to-a-world-like-the-one-before-1945\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.thenationalnews.com\/opinion\/2025\/02\/27\/despite-the-us-russia-summit-we-neednt-return-to-a-world-like-the-one-before-1945\/\">caustic speech<\/a> trumpeting the supposed decline of Europe as a bunch of weak losers. He offered offensive claims that Europe was suppressing freedom of speech and democracy and also facing civilisational decline.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" type=\"image\" data-chromatic=\"ignore\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" fetchpriority=\"auto\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/https:\/\/cdn.jwplayer.com\/v2\/media\/bBarJHaF\/poster.jpg\" width=\"400\" height=\"225\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Munich conference highlights improving US-Europe relations<\/p>\n<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-9-ELNW2QGGHBA2XI6V2MN6H7UDAA\">Europe has plenty of problems, but European nations generally are happier and healthier than their friends in the US, according to endless research papers on happiness and well-being. At the time, the Vance speech told us more about Mr Vance than it did about Europe.<\/p>\n<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-10-P27RR3EK4NEZBPYSNGAXYELFFY\">This year, however, Mr Rubio was mostly well-received. His criticisms were delivered much more diplomatically, although the sugar coating still contained a bitter pill.<\/p>\n<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-11-FDDY3U7YBBA57N5GKJU6TW26XY\">The sugar was Mr Rubio\u2019s remark about the US being Europe\u2019s \u201cchild\u201d and their fates would always be \u201cintertwined\u201d. Cue applause from the Europeans. But the supposed \u201cchild\u201d has definitely grown up and Mr Rubio treated the European \u201cfamily\u201d to a lecture.<\/p>\n<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-12-PDFQBT6JFBEVFIC3S2MNBT7CIU\">He insisted that the US was rebuilding the world according to its values. These he said included Christianity and a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thenationalnews.com\/news\/europe\/2026\/02\/15\/munich-security-conference-2026-spotlight-on-european-unity-after-rubio-speech\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.thenationalnews.com\/news\/europe\/2026\/02\/15\/munich-security-conference-2026-spotlight-on-european-unity-after-rubio-speech\/\">shared cultural heritage<\/a>, closing borders and dropping climate crisis policies. The implication was that Europeans needed to change their ways or else \u2026 although it was not entirely clear what the \u201cor else\u201d concept might mean. Perhaps it means that Mr Vance will be back with another harangue at Munich next year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-13-4PZXQNFN4RFWDOLG36UXHMNCIQ\">The simple fact is that there is much common ground and also some very significant differences between Europe and US President Donald Trump\u2019s America.<\/p>\n<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-14-BE3LLCP2MBFNLKMKZ4Z3LHXFJQ\">Germany is re-arming and re-invigorating Nato, but Chancellor Friedrich Merz clearly distanced himself from the Trump administration\u2019s \u201cculture wars\u201d. The same was true of French President Emmanuel Macron.<\/p>\n<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-15-YKD7ZWFKSFDNLEMVHRDXYD6YHM\">In their big speeches, the European leaders also tended to avoid publicly expressing their enormous disappointment over Mr Trump\u2019s attitude towards Denmark and its government of Greenland.<\/p>\n<p>Europe has plenty of problems, but European nations generally are happier and healthier than their friends in the US<\/p>\n<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-17-NVS76AY6QNFAPGQEIRI7XVL4XY\">When I have talked to British and European national security experts, they all agree that the Trump White House has reasonable and extremely important security concerns about the Arctic. But they also all agree that the way these concerns have been handled is the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thenationalnews.com\/opinion\/comment\/2026\/01\/14\/trump-needs-to-dial-down-the-rhetoric-to-convince-europe-about-his-greenland-plan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.thenationalnews.com\/opinion\/comment\/2026\/01\/14\/trump-needs-to-dial-down-the-rhetoric-to-convince-europe-about-his-greenland-plan\/\">worst of megaphone diplomacy<\/a>. Bullying friends and allies is generally counterproductive.<\/p>\n<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-18-H5IGSFCQJVBWJJEJO7TA35D7JA\">Moreover, the Arctic is strategically important to all of Nato, not just America. Ask Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney or the British or Scandinavians. Denmark and Greenlanders want an amicable settlement and a secure Arctic with America deeply involved.<\/p>\n<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-19-SIQRRHSJ6VGI7OUQTT3VM3ZO7M\">Meanwhile, behind the scenes as the key figures at the Munich conference return home, the biggest and most immediately dangerous security question remained unresolved \u2013 Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-20-QYKBQLD2DRDGRKKV62CZ62KTKU\">One of the defence experts attending the conference pointed out to me that Russia\u2019s casualty rate is now estimated at about 1.2 million of dead and wounded. This is an astonishing figure even for a large country. Ukraine has suffered horrendously, too, but Russia has not \u201cwon the war\u201d and most European nations <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thenationalnews.com\/news\/europe\/2026\/02\/11\/europeans-divided-on-direct-putin-talks-at-key-leader-meetings\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.thenationalnews.com\/news\/europe\/2026\/02\/11\/europeans-divided-on-direct-putin-talks-at-key-leader-meetings\/\">do not want<\/a> Russia to win the peace either.<\/p>\n<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-21-XYK4SH22RZDKLELQS6WEJG4QGI\">Ukraine insists it will not cede unoccupied territory, and all this behind-the-scenes diplomacy comes as western intelligence agencies publicly revealed that Alexander Navalny, the Russian opposition leader jailed by the Kremlin, was murdered while in a Russian penal colony.<\/p>\n<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-22-RN7SSNJ3IVBOBKWIOI4OCWIDQ4\">British Foreign Secretary <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thenationalnews.com\/news\/mena\/2026\/02\/14\/uks-yvette-cooper-denies-uae-sent-british-arms-to-sudans-rsf-with-more-than-a-dozen-countries-fueling-war\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.thenationalnews.com\/news\/mena\/2026\/02\/14\/uks-yvette-cooper-denies-uae-sent-british-arms-to-sudans-rsf-with-more-than-a-dozen-countries-fueling-war\/\">Yvette Cooper<\/a> said in Munich that \u201conly the Russian government had the means, motive and opportunity\u201d to use the poison administered to Navalny in his top-security jail. The poison is known as epibatidine and is only found in a rare species of dart frog.<\/p>\n<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-23-UMCDD4ZBRFBRFEEVVGDFQOVZ2E\">Ms Cooper said that \u201cby using this form of poison, the Russian state demonstrated the despicable tools it has at its disposal and the overwhelming fear it has of political opposition\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"defaultstyled__StyledText-sc-11u52t4-1 huqwQJ margin-lg-bottom\" id=\"el-24-IN5MF5AAMRFRHPTCNAPQ5YRVD4\">Scanning international relations, war and peace right now, you can see that my uncle was correct. Just as in sport, it\u2019s not the despair that can be so difficult to deal with. It\u2019s the hope that good things might happen, a hope dashed when the real world intervenes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"For Scottish rugby or football fans \u2013 (and here I mean me) \u2013 there\u2019s an old family saying.&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":485072,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[567],"tags":[64,63,2490,2057,66172,1721,154618,760,85,155,2489],"class_list":{"0":"post-485071","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-rugby","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-donald-trump","11":"tag-europe","12":"tag-nato","13":"tag-opinion","14":"tag-opinion-team","15":"tag-rugby","16":"tag-sports","17":"tag-story","18":"tag-us"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/485071","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=485071"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/485071\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/485072"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=485071"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=485071"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=485071"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}