{"id":486660,"date":"2026-02-17T22:50:07","date_gmt":"2026-02-17T22:50:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/486660\/"},"modified":"2026-02-17T22:50:07","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T22:50:07","slug":"cocoa-prices-pressured-by-robust-supplies-and-weak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/486660\/","title":{"rendered":"Cocoa Prices Pressured by Robust Supplies and Weak\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26<\/a>) today is down -177 (-4.94%), and March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26<\/a>) is down -68 (-2.70%).<\/p>\n

Cocoa prices extended their two-month-long plunge today, falling to 2.5-year nearest-futures lows. \u00a0 Robust global supplies and slack demand are weighing on cocoa prices. \u00a0Limiting losses in London cocoa is weakness in the British pound (^GBPUSD<\/a>), which fell to a 3-week low today, boosting cocoa priced in sterling.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\n<\/p>\n

On January 29, StoneX forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 287,000 MT in the 2025\/26 season and a 267,000 MT surplus for 2026\/27. \u00a0Also, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) reported on January 23 that global cocoa stocks rose 4.2% y\/y to 1.1 MMT.<\/p>\n

Abundant ICE-monitored cocoa inventories are negative for prices. \u00a0ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 4.25-month high of 1,942,367 bags last Friday.<\/p>\n

Demand concerns have hammered cocoa prices as consumers continue to balk at the high price of chocolate. \u00a0On January 28, Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s largest bulk chocolate maker, reported a -22% decline in sales volume in its cocoa division for the quarter ending November 30, citing “negative market demand and a prioritization of volume toward higher-return segments within cocoa.”<\/p>\n

Grinding reports also showed weak demand. \u00a0On January 15, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q4 European cocoa grindings fell -8.3% y\/y to 304,470 MT, a bigger decline than expectations of -2.9% y\/y and the lowest for a Q4 in 12 years. \u00a0On December 16, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q4 Asian cocoa grindings fell -4.8% y\/y to 197,022 MT. \u00a0Also, the National Confectioners Association reported Q4 North American cocoa grindings rose only +0.3% y\/y to 103,117 MT.<\/p>\n

Favorable growing conditions in West Africa are also a negative factor for cocoa prices. \u00a0Tropical General Investments Group recently said that favorable growing conditions in West Africa are expected to boost the February-March cocoa harvest in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, as farmers report larger and healthier pods compared with the same period last year. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Chocolate maker Mondelez recently said that the latest cocoa pod count in West Africa is 7% above the five-year average and “materially higher” than last year’s crop. \u00a0Harvest of the Ivory Coast’s main crop has begun, and farmers are optimistic about its quality.<\/p>\n

Also undercutting cocoa prices are higher exports from Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer. \u00a0Last Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that Nigerian Dec cocoa exports rose +17% y\/y to 54,799 MT.<\/p>\n

Slowing cocoa deliveries to ports in the Ivory Coast is a supportive factor for prices. \u00a0Monday’s cumulative data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.30 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through February 15, 2026), down -3.0% from 1.34 MMT in the same period a year ago. \u00a0The Ivory Coast is the world’s largest cocoa producer. \u00a0<\/p>\n

On the positive side, Nigeria’s Cocoa Association projects that Nigerian cocoa production in 2025\/26 will fall by -11% y\/y to 305,000 MT, from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024\/25 crop year. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Cocoa prices have support on a tightening global supply outlook. \u00a0On November 28, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) cut its global 2024\/25 cocoa surplus estimate to 49,000 MT from a previous estimate of 142,000 MT. \u00a0It also lowered its global cocoa production estimate for 2024\/25 to 4.69 MMT from 4.84 MMT previously. \u00a0In addition, Rabobank last Tuesday cut its 2025\/26 global cocoa surplus estimate to 250,000 MT from a November forecast of 328,000 MT.<\/p>\n

On May 30, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023\/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. \u00a0ICCO said 2023\/24 cocoa production fell by -12.9% y\/y to 4.368 MMT. \u00a0ICCO on December 19 estimated a 2024\/25 global cocoa surplus of 49,000 MT, marking the first surplus in four years. \u00a0ICCO also said global cocoa production in 2024\/25 rose by +7.4% y\/y to 4.69 MMT.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) today is down -177 (-4.94%), and March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) is…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":486661,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,1348,99,3355,164,3359,3353,44,3356,3354,3357,3358,1346],"class_list":["post-486660","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-breaking-news","tag-business","tag-daily-news","tag-economy","tag-global-news","tag-inkl","tag-news","tag-news-app","tag-news-headlines","tag-news-today","tag-today-news","tag-world-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/486660","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=486660"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/486660\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/486661"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=486660"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=486660"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=486660"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}