With the 2026 Winter Olympics underway, the NHL season has hit pause. While the break provides recovery time, it also risks amplifying existing weaknesses. For teams already underperforming beneath the surface, advanced analytics suggest the Olympic hiatus may not be the reset they need.<\/p>\n
Using possession metrics, shot-quality data, and situational performance trends, four teams stand out as being in particularly deep water heading into the post-Olympic stretch: the Ottawa Senators, New York Rangers, Chicago Blackhawks, and San Jose Sharks.<\/p>\n
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Atlantic Division: Ottawa Senators<\/p>\n
From an analytics standpoint, Ottawa\u2019s struggles stem from poor sustainability. While their October record was strong, underlying metrics hinted at trouble ahead. The Senators\u2019 early success was driven largely by finishing efficiency rather than dominant play.<\/p>\n
Since November, Ottawa has ranked poorly in expected goals against (xGA) and high-danger chances allowed, indicating defensive-zone breakdowns that are not the result of bad luck. Their Corsi For percentage<\/a> (CF%) has hovered below league average, showing they spend extended stretches without puck control.<\/p>\n Additionally, Ottawa\u2019s inconsistency in goals saved above expected (GSAx) suggests unstable goaltending performance, making it difficult to mask defensive lapses. Teams with weak possession numbers and unreliable goaltending rarely improve after long breaks, placing the Senators at risk once play resumes.<\/p>\n Metropolitan Division: New York Rangers<\/p>\n The Rangers\u2019 advanced stats reveal one of the starkest declines in the league. Early-season results masked deeper issues, particularly in five-on-five play. Since late November, New York has struggled in expected goals for<\/a> (xGF), indicating an inability to generate quality scoring chances despite reasonable shot volume.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n Defensively, the Rangers\u2019 slot chances against and rush chances allowed have increased, pointing to breakdowns in neutral-zone structure. This has forced goaltenders to face higher-quality shots, a trend reflected in declining team save percentage relative to expected.<\/p>\n Perhaps most concerning is the Rangers\u2019 performance in score-adjusted possession metrics, which show the team fails to tilt the ice even when trailing. Sitting at the bottom of the Metropolitan Division heading into the Olympic break, the Rangers\u2019 analytics suggest structural problems rather than temporary variance.<\/p>\n Central Division: Chicago Blackhawks<\/p>\n Chicago\u2019s advanced metrics tell a story of early progress followed by regression. In October and November, the Blackhawks showed improvement in zone entry success and forecheck pressure, allowing them to stay competitive against stronger opponents.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n That progress faded in December. Chicago\u2019s expected goals differential<\/a> (xGD) dropped significantly, driven by declining offensive-zone time and an increase in defensive-zone turnovers. The Blackhawks have struggled to generate high-danger chances, relying too heavily on perimeter shots that inflate shot totals without improving scoring probability.<\/p>\n Defensively, Chicago\u2019s inability to suppress shots from the slot has resulted in a rising xGA per 60, making them vulnerable even in games where the score remains close. The shutout loss to Columbus before the Olympic break was a clear reflection of these trends.<\/p>\n Pacific Division: San Jose Sharks<\/p>\n San Jose\u2019s concern is rooted in contextual analytics. The Sharks\u2019 overall metrics are not disastrous, but in the Pacific Division, \u201caverage\u201d is rarely enough.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n The Sharks\u2019 expected goals share fluctuates heavily game to game, reflecting inconsistency in execution. While they perform adequately against weaker teams, their xGF% against playoff-caliber opponents drops sharply, suggesting difficulty sustaining pressure against elite competition.<\/p>\n Special teams further compound the issue. San Jose\u2019s penalty kill expected goals against and power-play chance generation have both underperformed relative to division rivals. In a tightly contested Pacific Division, even marginal inefficiencies can be the difference between playoff positioning and falling behind.<\/p>\n Final Analysis<\/p>\n Advanced statistics reinforce what the standings only partially reveal: these four teams face systemic challenges that the Olympic break alone will not solve.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n Ottawa lacks defensive structure and possession stability.<\/p>\n New York shows declining shot quality and neutral-zone control.<\/p>\n Chicago struggles with chance generation and defensive suppression.<\/p>\n San Jose faces razor-thin margins in an analytically unforgiving division.<\/p>\n As the NHL season resumes, teams that control play, limit high-danger chances, and sustain positive expected-goals trends will separate themselves. For these four clubs, the numbers suggest the post-Olympic stretch could determine whether their seasons stay afloat\u2014or sink.<\/p>\n The post Which NHL Teams Sit in Deep Waters at the Olympic Break?<\/a> appeared first on The Lead<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"With the 2026 Winter Olympics underway, the NHL season has hit pause. 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