Ashton Hurn entered her campaign launch to the strains of Ain\u2019t No Mountain High Enough.<\/p>\n
Hurn, who stepped into the leadership of South Australia\u2019s beleaguered Liberal party in December \u2013 about 100 days before the 21 March election \u2013 has consistently used mountain metaphors for the task ahead of her.<\/p>\n
The seemingly insurmountable obstacle she faces is the utter domination of the Labor party, with the latest Newspoll<\/a> showing the Liberal primary vote at 14%, a level that could leave it without a single seat. The poll taken last week put One Nation\u2019s primary vote at 24%, with Labor on 44%.<\/p>\n The craggy valleys Hurn faces include a party that got smashed<\/a> at the last election and has lost more seats since; the conservative faction <\/a>dominating the party machinery; a very popular premier; the taint of the turmoil in the federal party<\/a>; and the menacing threat of One Nation<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cSomeone asked me what mountain. And it\u2019s probably Mount Everest \u2026 it\u2019s not Mount Lofty,\u201d she says, referring to a popular weekend hiking trail in Adelaide.<\/p>\n \u201cYou just do it one step at a time.\u201d<\/p>\n As the One Nation<\/a> vote has surged, so has interest in SA\u2019s election. Will it be the harbinger of a federal shift?<\/p>\n Rob Manwaring, a political scientist at Flinders University, says state elections usually don\u2019t have a great deal of bearing on federal politics. \u201cThis is different, though, because for the first time we\u2019ll get a stronger sense of how the One Nation vote might fracture and splinter the far-right vote overall.<\/p>\n \u201cIt tells us something about the total disarray and carnage in the Liberal party<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n Peter Lewis, the executive director of Essential \u2013 which produces the Guardian Essential report \u2013 says its data shows One Nation\u2019s vote in SA running lower than in other states, particularly Queensland and NSW.<\/p>\n \u201cOn one level the national One Nation vote is hypothetical because the [federal] election is so far away,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n But \u201cSA is the interesting first test of whether intention translates to actual ballot box endorsement\u201d.<\/p>\n Labor domination<\/p>\n Polling has consistently shown Labor, under the popular, footy-playing premier, Peter Malinauskas<\/a>, heading for a colossal win.<\/p>\n The current 47-seat House of Assembly has 28 Labor, 13 Liberal and four independents MPs; two seats are vacant. On at least one analysis of the polls<\/a>, even before the shocking Newspoll, the Liberal party might not retain a single lower house seat, potentially leaving One Nation as the official opposition.<\/p>\n \u2018There\u2019s a risk when people rush to simplistic, populist policy that might make \u2026 complexities worse rather than better,\u2019 says Peter Malinauskas. Photograph: Matt Turner\/AAP<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019ve probably spent less time thinking about One Nation than you might think,\u201d Malinauskas says.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019m more interested in what they represent as a phenomenon globally where the rise of populist parties and populist politics has combined with polarisation in a way that concerns me \u2026 The world is becoming a more complex place and there\u2019s a risk when people rush to simplistic, populist policy that might make those complexities worse rather than better.\u201d<\/p>\n He warns against dismissing legitimate concerns of those drawn to One Nation, but in a speech on Wednesday<\/a> took aim at its anti-immigration policies, asking: \u201cWho\u2019s going to feed you and bathe you and wipe your bum when you\u2019re 90?\u201d<\/p>\n Asked what concerns him, Malinauskas nominates hospital ramping \u2013 a key election promise was to fix it, which hasn\u2019t happened \u201cdespite a record investment in health\u201d, he says.<\/p>\n Ramping is sure to be high on Hurn\u2019s list, too; as the opposition health spokesperson, she took that fight up to the government. She also names energy bills, housing and the health system more broadly as areas where Labor has failed.<\/p>\n Other issues have plagued Malinauskas\u2019s premiership, although none large enough to dent that popularity. Three ministers have resigned<\/a>; he was tangled up in the cancellation of Adelaide Writers\u2019 Week<\/a>; the algal bloom<\/a> hit on his watch and some complained of inadequate communication; he battled issues at Whyalla steelworks<\/a> and with a planned green hydrogen plant<\/a>; and presided over sporting events and developments that some say had too high a price (for the parklands in a couple of cases, unease at the Saudi-backed LIV golf<\/a> tournament in others).<\/p>\n Malinauskas says the government has taken decisions \u201cconsciously and understanding the challenges\u201d and says the state currently has \u201cthe biggest economic opportunity we\u2019ve had since world war two\u201d with full employment, the fastest growing wages and a high standard of living. He can also be proud of the state\u2019s renewables uptake<\/a>.<\/p>\n His social media ban<\/a>, ultimately adopted at a federal level, led the hosts of The Rest Is Politics podcast \u2013 Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart \u2013 to call him a \u201cmutual hero\u201d.<\/p>\n Crisis after Liberal crisis<\/p>\n The SA Liberal party has forever been caught in a delicate (and sometimes indelicate) power balance between the conservatives and the moderates. In recent years, a more hardline conservative element led by the federal senator Alex Antic has staged what one senior Liberal has called \u201ca takeover\u201d of the branches.<\/p>\n While that rumbled on in the background, a cluster of mini-crises has hit the parliamentary party.<\/p>\n The former leader David Speirs won his seat of Black in 2022 with just over half the primary vote \u2013 then quit after being arrested on suspicion of drug offences (he later pleaded guilty to two counts of drug supply). Labor scooped up Black at a byelection, but there\u2019s a chance Speirs will have another crack as an independent<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u2018I\u2019m aware of the task at hand, and it\u2019s a big challenge, but I\u2019m also just determined to do a good job at it,\u2019 says the SA Liberal\u2019s new leader, Ashton Hurn.<\/p>\n Labor also picked up Dunstan after the former premier Steven Marshall retired.<\/p>\n Troy Bell, a Liberal turned independent in the seat of Mount Gambier, was found guilty<\/a> of 20 charges of theft and five of dishonest dealing with documents and sentenced to up to five years in prison. His seat has been empty since September.<\/p>\n Another Liberal turned independent, Fraser Ellis, is contesting Narungga while appealing<\/a> after being found guilty of four counts of deception<\/a> over misused travel allowances.<\/p>\n And then there\u2019s Nick McBride in the seat of MacKillop, who quit the Liberal party warning of \u201cdark forces<\/a>\u201d within and is hoping to hold his seat while facing charges of aggravated assault<\/a> against his estranged wife, which he denies.<\/p>\n Speirs was replaced as leader by Vincent Tarzia, who was elected in August then quit in December<\/a>, delivering a hospital pass to Hurn.<\/p>\n Hurn, an accomplished, eloquent, well-respected MP with a young child, was left looking at what some see as a glass cliff<\/a>. \u201cThis is something that of course I didn\u2019t look for, but it\u2019s something that my colleagues have encouraged me to do,\u201d she said when elected<\/a>.<\/p>\n She rejects the glass cliff characterisation. \u201cFor me, my colleagues saw in me someone who\u2019s a leader, who can give it their all,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019m aware of the task at hand, and it\u2019s a big challenge, but I\u2019m also just determined to do a good job at it. There\u2019s no point looking back and wishing for something else.\u201d<\/p>\n Preferences \u2013 it\u2019s anyone\u2019s guess<\/p>\n One Nation\u2019s new upper house lead candidate, Cory Bernardi, says the party will contest every seat and claims it would \u201cbe the strongest voice of opposition that this government has ever faced\u201d.<\/p>\n