{"id":501563,"date":"2026-02-24T19:32:16","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T19:32:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/501563\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T19:32:16","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T19:32:16","slug":"two-new-federal-polls-have-one-nation-gaining-on-labor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/501563\/","title":{"rendered":"Two new federal polls have One Nation gaining on Labor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Two new federal polls by DemosAU and Fox &amp; Hedgehog have the combined primary vote for Labor and the Greens dropping as One Nation continues to surge. There\u2019s no sign of a boost for the Coalition from Angus Taylor replacing Sussan Ley.<\/p>\n<p>At the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/elections\/federal\/2025\/results\/party-totals\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">2025 federal election<\/a>, the combined primary vote share for Labor and the Greens was 46.8%, while the combined share for the Coalition, One Nation and Trumpet of Patriots was 40.1%. In the two polls below, the total right vote is 49% and the total left vote 41\u201342%.<\/p>\n<p>A national <a href=\"https:\/\/demosau.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/DemosAU-Federal-Poll-Feb-2026.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">DemosAU poll<\/a> for Capital Brief, conducted February 16\u201320 from a sample of 1,551, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (down one since a <a href=\"https:\/\/demosau.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/DemosAU-Federal-Poll-January-2026-FINAL.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">mid-January DemosAU poll<\/a>), One Nation 28% (up four), the Coalition 21% (steady), the Greens 12% (down one) and all Others 10% (down two).<\/p>\n<p>No two-party estimate was given, but seat projections had Labor winning 76\u201385 of the 150 House of Representatives seats, still enough for a majority but down from 87\u201395 in January. One Nation was winning 43\u201354 seats, up from 29\u201338, the Coalition 9\u201320 (10\u201322 previously), the Greens an unchanged 0\u20132 and all Others 3\u20137 (6\u201311 previously).<\/p>\n<p>Anthony Albanese\u2019s net positive rating was down three points to -17, with 46% giving him a negative rating and 29% positive. Taylor\u2019s initial net positive was -4 (28% negative, 24% positive), up 14 points on Ley. Pauline Hanson\u2019s net positive improved four points to -1 (38% negative, 37% positive).<\/p>\n<p>In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese led with 37% (down two), followed by Hanson at 25% (down one) and Taylor at 19% (up three from Ley).<\/p>\n<p>Cost of living was rated the most important issue by 45%, followed by housing at 18% and immigration at 13%. Respondents were asked which of Labor, the Greens, One Nation or the Coalition were best for various issues.<\/p>\n<p>Combining One Nation and the Coalition against the combined Labor and Greens gives the right a 44\u201332 lead over the left on cost of living, a 41\u201332 lead on housing and a 53\u201326 lead on immigration.<\/p>\n<p>      Read more:<br \/>\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/can-one-nation-turn-its-polling-hype-into-seats-in-parliament-history-shows-it-will-struggle-274632\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Can One Nation turn its polling hype into seats in parliament? History shows it will struggle<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Fox &amp; Hedgehog poll: Labor down to 51\u201349 lead<\/p>\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/file\/d\/1HH88HR1Gwa9keIiIYiBbiSWTAANkKRS9\/view\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">national Fox &amp; Hedgehog poll<\/a> for the News Corp papers, conducted February 17\u201319 from a sample of 1,625, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (up one since an early <a href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/file\/d\/14VSwAKi4y0xqvgnHYtm0IP_92OnbNSk9\/view\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">January Fox &amp; Hedgehog poll<\/a>), One Nation 25% (up four), the Coalition 24% (down one), the Greens 12% (down two) and all Others 9% (down two).<\/p>\n<p>In a \u201cthree party preferred\u201d, where Greens and Other voters are asked which of Labor, One Nation or the Coalition they prefer, Labor had 44% (down two), One Nation 29% (up four) and the Coalition 27% (down two). Respondent preferences gave Labor just a 51\u201349 lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition. Labor led One Nation by 53\u201347, a three-point gain for One Nation.<\/p>\n<p>            <a href=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/720074\/original\/file-20260224-69-kalllo.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"The side profile of Anthony Albanese\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/file-20260224-69-kalllo.jpg\" class=\"native-lazy\" loading=\"lazy\"  \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>              Albanese\u2019s net approval was unchanged in the latest Fox &amp; Hedgehog poll.<br \/>\n              <a class=\"source\" href=\"https:\/\/photos.aap.com.au\/search\/20260217138821024065\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Joel Carrett\/AAP<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Albanese\u2019s net approval was an unchanged -15 (47% disapprove, 32% approve).  Taylor\u2019s initial net approval was +3 (26% approve, 23% disapprove) (Ley\u2019s net approval was -13). Albanese led Taylor by 40\u201335 as preferred PM (39\u201331 vs Ley).  Hanson\u2019s net approval was up 12 points to +9 (44% approve, 35% disapprove).<\/p>\n<p>On reducing the capital gains tax discount, 35% both supported and opposed. By 59\u201317, respondents supported an immigration ban from \u201chigh risk\u201d areas. By 64\u201315, respondents did not think \u201cISIS brides\u201d should be allowed to return to Australia.<\/p>\n<p>Resolve poll on international relations<\/p>\n<p>I previously covered the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/the-coalition-leads-in-victorian-demosau-poll-with-one-nation-posting-21-support-275791\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">mid-February federal Resolve poll<\/a> for Nine newspapers. In <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theage.com.au\/politics\/federal\/more-unpopular-than-xi-trump-is-dragging-down-america-s-reputation-in-australia-20260219-p5o3n4.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">further questions<\/a>, Russian President Vladimir Putin had a net likeability with Australians of -60, United States President Donald Trump -41, Chinese President Xi Jinping -26, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu -20, United Kingdom PM Keir Starmer -5 and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky +22.<\/p>\n<p>The US\u2019s net likeability was -17, down 21 since October and 34 from two years ago.  China\u2019s was -24, the UK\u2019s +41, Japan\u2019s +53 and New Zealand\u2019s +67.<\/p>\n<p>      Read more:<br \/>\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/the-coalition-leads-in-victorian-demosau-poll-with-one-nation-posting-21-support-275791\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The Coalition leads in Victorian DemosAU poll, with One Nation posting 21% support<\/a><\/p>\n<p>On the greatest threat to Australia in the next few years, 31% said China (down 23 since January 2023), 17% the US, 5% Russia and 31% all equally.<\/p>\n<p>By 62\u201311, respondents thought Taiwan was a sovereign nation rather than a region of China. On any conflict between China and Taiwan, 36% thought Australia should support Taiwan, 7% support China and 38% not take sides.<\/p>\n<p>On the Ukraine-Russia war, 40% thought Australia should maintain its current support for Ukraine, 16% increase its support (down nine since March 2025) and 21% decrease or withdraw support for Ukraine (up seven).<\/p>\n<p>Tasmanian federal EMRS poll<\/p>\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.emrs.com.au\/sites\/default\/files\/documents\/2026-02\/EMRS%20-%20Federal%20Voting%20Intentions%20Report%20-%20February%202026.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Tasmanian federal EMRS poll<\/a>, conducted February 16\u201319 from a sample of 1,000, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote, One Nation 24%, the Liberals 18%, the Greens 13%, independents 12% and others 2%. One Nation only received 6.0% at the <a href=\"https:\/\/results.aec.gov.au\/31496\/Website\/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-31496-TAS.htm\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">2025 federal election in Tasmania<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Labor led the Liberals by 60\u201340 after preferences (63.3\u201336.7 at the last election), and they led One Nation by the same 60\u201340 margin.  Figures for the five Tasmanian federal seats were given, based on samples of 200 per seat.  <\/p>\n<p>In Braddon, One Nation and Labor were tied 50\u201350, from primary votes of 34% One Nation, 31% Labor, 16% Liberals, 7% Greens and 10% independents. Labor was winning all other seats easily. Albanese led Taylor as preferred PM by 45\u201331 statewide.<\/p>\n<p>Queensland DemosAU poll: LNP far ahead<\/p>\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/demosau.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/DemosAU-Qld-Poll-Feb-2026-2.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Queensland state DemosAU and Premier National poll<\/a>, conducted February 10\u201320 from a sample of 1,044, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) 34% of the primary vote (down three since the <a href=\"https:\/\/demosau.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Qld-Poll-DemosAU-PremierNational-October-2025-FINAL.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">October DemosAU poll<\/a>), Labor 28% (down one), One Nation 21% (up seven), the Greens 10% (down two) and all Others 7% (down one).  <\/p>\n<p>The LNP led Labor by 56\u201344 after preferences, a two-point gain for the LNP. All <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/sa-newspoll-shows-liberal-wipeout-likely-victorian-morgan-poll-puts-one-nation-first-on-primaries-276152\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Queensland polls<\/a> now have the LNP far ahead.<\/p>\n<p>LNP Premier David Crisafulli had a net +16 approval, with 39% positive, 38% neutral and 23% negative. Labor leader Steven Miles was at net -10. Crisafulli led Miles as preferred premier by 43\u201332 (44\u201332 previously). By 44\u201336, respondents thought Queensland was headed in the right direction (42\u201338 previously).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Two new federal polls by DemosAU and Fox &amp; Hedgehog have the combined primary vote for Labor and&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":501564,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[43,44,41,39,42,40],"class_list":["post-501563","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-headlines","tag-news","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/501563","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=501563"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/501563\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/501564"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=501563"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=501563"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=501563"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}