![\"Nick](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/4e66b33ec4aec7991ac79dc844372d3a53eb14ce.jpeg\")
Nick Flanagan, next to the Mulwala Canal near his property outside of Finley.Alex Ellinghausen<\/p>\nLike many Australians, dairy farmer Nick Flanagan finds his WhatsApp group chat is a good barometer of what people are thinking about politics.<\/p>\n
The father of three runs a dairy farm outside Finley \u2013 a small town in the nation\u2019s food bowl, about 660 kilometres south-west of Sydney and 280 kilometres north of Melbourne. Here, in the federal electorate of Farrer, frustration has been brewing for a long time.<\/p>\n
Flanagan mentions one of the men in his WhatsApp chat \u2013 a second-generation farmer, like himself. \u201cHis father and him were both big Nationals followers. If you wanted an argument in the pub, he\u2019d be the first one to step up,\u201d Flanagan says.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe defected to One Nation, maybe two or three months ago. He\u2019s a registered member now.\u201d<\/p>\n
Nick Flanagan, next to the Mulwala Canal near his property outside of Finley.Alex Ellinghausen<\/p>\n
For farmers such as Flanagan, the list of resentments includes labour shortages, penalty rates and unreliable energy. In town, it is a shortage of childcare, health services and housing. And in this irrigation district, north of the Murray River, there\u2019s another flashpoint: water management.<\/p>\n
Water is an issue that provokes farmers and the communities that flourish or flail based on their success. Many feel betrayed by long-running government interventions: it started when water became a tradable commodity under John Howard, continued with the Murray Darling Basin plan under leaders of all stripes, and escalated with buybacks under Labor.<\/p>\n
Through all this, Sussan Ley has been repeatedly elected as Farrer\u2019s representative for the Liberals in Canberra. Now that her resignation is forcing a byelection<\/a>, a switch has flicked. It\u2019s not what Nationals leader David Littleproud or new Liberal leader Angus Taylor want to see.<\/p>\n Related Article \u201cThe majority of guys that I talk to would be like: \u2018Yeah, f— the Nationals, they\u2019ve lost us.\u2019 And that\u2019s from being ineffective. Twenty-five years of nothing,\u201d Flanagan says. \u201cThis has traditionally always been a Liberal-Nationals seat, and people have just lost any confidence in them.\u201d<\/p>\n This disillusionment runs far deeper than the past nine months, although recent Coalition chaos in Canberra<\/a> has certainly compounded it. \u201cThey\u2019re like: these guys have got no direction. They\u2019ve got no leadership. What the hell are they doing? Let\u2019s try Pauline [Hanson]. That\u2019s pretty as cut and dry, as I see it.\u201d<\/p>\n The seat of Farrer has had four representatives in 77 years: three Liberals and one National, former deputy leader Tim Fischer. Ley won it when Fischer retired in 2001.<\/p>\n The sprawling electorate, at 126,563 square kilometres, fills out the south-western corner of NSW. Its largest population centre, Albury, is increasingly like inner suburban Sydney and Melbourne. But as you follow the Murray and Murrumbidgee rivers inland, sheep and wheat properties give way to irrigation. The areas around Griffith and Deniliquin produce vast quantities of rice, fruit, wine grapes and almonds that feed the eastern seaboard. Head further west, and small communities give way to desert.<\/p>\n The politics of Farrer change with geography. The Liberals have typically dominated Albury, where about half the electorate lives. The rural and farming lands of the electorate \u2013 the other half \u2013 have been considered Nationals strongholds, although it\u2019s been seven years since the party has even represented them at a state level.<\/p>\n Yet the second-generation farmer, the young doctor working in Albury and the migrant business owner in Griffith all say the same thing, as we drive around the electorate to ask about the byelection.<\/p>\n They feel betrayed and neglected, that nobody has listened to them. The way they deliver this message oscillates between exasperation, frustration and fury, but it is broadly consistent: the region has been ignored and it\u2019s time for something different.<\/p>\n How this manifests at the ballot box, however, won\u2019t be so simple. In usual circumstances, the byelection would be a rare showdown between the Coalition partners \u2013 with the seat vacant, they can compete against each other.<\/p>\n As incumbents, the Liberals should be frontrunners, although party sources concede it will be challenging. The Nationals also know people are fed up, and will pitch themselves as the strongest alternative to \u201clone wolves in city centric parties claiming they can do anything for us\u201d, says Gabrielle Coupland, the party\u2019s acting chair in Farrer.<\/p>\n But with the Coalition polling at historic lows<\/a>, the byelection will be a test of their relevance. The battle is morphing into a four or five-cornered contest that threatens to relegate major parties further down the pile with a messy exchange of preferences.<\/p>\n The question is whether the Liberals will prevail in Albury against Michelle Milthorpe, a Climate 200-backed independent who has already started campaigning \u2013 and if the Nationals can pull ahead in the west while One Nation is ascending.<\/p>\n Independent state MP Helen Dalton, who holds an overlapping NSW seat she won from the Nationals, is also toying with running \u2013 a wildcard that would make the race even more complex.<\/p>\n Who, from all those, comes out on top when preferences are counted?<\/p>\n Campaigns will now spring into action \u2013 Ley announced her resignation on Friday \u2013 and a date will be set for the byelection. The Liberals, Nationals and One Nation will move quickly to announce their candidates, and Dalton will make her decision.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Australians watching preferences flow in Farrer for the first time will try to decode what they say about this country and the status of conservative and centre-right politics, and Taylor, Littleproud and Hanson will be graded on the results.<\/p>\n For the 124,000 people casting a ballot, however, the contest will be fought over local issues, shaped by local candidates, and a rare chance to send their message to the broader nation.<\/p>\n Volunteers in Milthorpe shirts are already handing out flyers in Albury\u2019s city centre. Cardboard cut-outs of orange emus are appearing around town.<\/p>\n These were common sights just nine months ago, when the teacher and advocate against child sex abuse ran as an independent in last year\u2019s federal election.<\/p>\n Milthorpe came second, helping force Ley to preferences for the first time in 25 years, and cutting her lead to 6.2 per cent. More importantly, she beat Ley in every voting booth in Albury and its suburbs, which have a population of about 60,000.<\/p>\n It\u2019s a strong starting point for Milthorpe, who is backed by the Climate 200 fundraising vehicle that has helped send climate-minded independents to Canberra.<\/p>\n She was out the door within hours of Ley saying she would resign two weeks ago<\/a>, vowing to fight again. Her volunteers stayed in touch, expecting Ley might not last the term. They\u2019ve activated quickly: reopening a shopfront on Albury\u2019s main street, now decorated with the orange bunting they\u2019ve kept since May. So have Climate 200 and the Regional Voices Fund, which donated $60,000 to kickstart the campaign.<\/p>\n Related Article The issue that propelled Milthorpe\u2019s success in Albury last time was the cash-strapped local hospital \u2013 jointly funded by Victoria and NSW, it reports to Victoria, and the federal government has kept out. It\u2019s supposed to cater to 300,000 people, but bed shortages, surgery waitlists and staff burnout have hampered its capacity. Stories of charity funds spent on artwork<\/a>, whistleblower complaints<\/a> and exits of high-profile doctors have fuelled a sense of scandal. The hospital is being redeveloped, but Milthorpe says it\u2019s not enough: she wants a new hospital on a new site.<\/p>\n Dr Lachlan McKeeman, a GP who has protested the redevelopment, has seen two families lose loved ones from cardiac arrest because they couldn\u2019t get help in time; certain services don\u2019t operate outside business hours. \u201cOne was lost on the way to Wagga, one was lost on the way to Melbourne,\u201d he says. McKeeman thinks federal leaders are letting the states get away with \u201cabsolutely appalling behaviour\u201d.<\/p>\n He is preparing to volunteer in his orange Milthorpe shirt, although he won\u2019t vote in the byelection \u2013 he lives in Wodonga. The campaign is drawing in plenty of Victorians who are vested in the border town\u2019s shared interests.<\/p>\n On the southern side of the Murray, which becomes the federal seat of Indi, community independents are a mainstay: Cathy McGowan pioneered the movement when she beat the Liberals in 2013. It\u2019s now held by independent Helen Haines, who endorsed Milthorpe with independent ACT senator David Pocock on Friday.<\/p>\n For the Milthorpe campaign, Indi is a blueprint. \u201cAn independent understands the community aspect of it,\u201d McKeeman says. \u201cTo steal the Indi phrase, it\u2019s politics done differently.\u201d<\/p>\n But Milthorpe will need to pull votes outside Albury to seize the seat. Her next focus is the town of Deniliquin \u2013 a southern irrigation hub, population about 7000 \u2013 where she was setting up a new office last week.<\/p>\n As in much of the electorate\u2019s west, these have traditionally been Liberal voters. Ley commanded between 60 and 70 per cent of the two-party vote against Labor in Deniliquin in 2022, although this dipped into the 50s against Milthorpe last year.<\/p>\n That\u2019s because of people like Rob Brown, a family business consultant. Brown loves the town he\u2019s lived in since he was six months old \u2013 the gums that line the Edward, taking a dinghy up the river \u2013 but says the community is being challenged by the standard mix of regional service shortages: healthcare, childcare and housing.<\/p>\n \u201cAll those things double up, or triple up. We have a lot of young people and professionals who want to come back to Deni, but if you can\u2019t get housing or you can\u2019t get childcare, you can\u2019t come back,\u201d Brown says.<\/p>\n \u201cI don\u2019t think many people would be convinced that we\u2019ve had the advocacy we need \u2013 that would be across a lot of rural communities. But the water stuff is another layer again.\u201d<\/p>\n These complex concerns about water management, flooding and food security aren\u2019t just held by farmers \u2013 farming benefits flow into local economies and communities, bringing commerce, schools, health services and government funding into the area.<\/p>\n Brown\u2019s frustration, like many others, has been mounting. He once handed out how-to-votes for Ley, but at the last election sent his vote elsewhere to send a message to major parties he feels are point scoring rather than pursuing serious change.<\/p>\n \u201cI think the Liberals are looking like an old boys\u2019 club with policies that disregard science and evidence,\u201d he says. \u201cMilthorpe\u2019s the only one, at this point. Because it\u2019s her second hit, she\u2019s more likely to be heard, [especially] if she can work out how to craft her water policy \u2013 to say we just need to breathe, stop these buybacks, and do a rigorous assessment of what works.\u201d<\/p>\n Milthorpe has strengthened her message on water since last year. \u201cWe\u2019ve got farming communities that are pretty much on their knees,\u201d she tells this masthead.<\/p>\n \u201cThey\u2019re being screwed with water policy, and we\u2019ve got generational farmers who are thinking about selling their farms \u2026 I will definitely be calling for a royal commission.\u201d<\/p>\n This message still needs to reach, and convince, the likes of Louise Burge \u2013 a well-known farmer around Deniliquin who\u2019s campaigned in the community and Canberra for decades. At one point, she was a senior official with the NSW Farmers Association \u2013 an organisation whose members have historically overlapped with the Nationals.<\/p>\n Aged 67, Burge sees the optimism of her parent\u2019s generation dissipating. She thinks the city and country have become more distant as Australia urbanises, resulting in regional health failures and a problematic renewable energy fallout. What makes her tear up, though, is recalling memories of lost crops or 1200 dead sheep because of flooding she links to water mismanagement in Canberra.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s not a lot of understanding within the political fields, and also the bureaucratic fields, about what policy means when it\u2019s applied to a regional area. That has bred the discontent that is now evident in Farrer,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n Burge thinks the Liberal vote has held for 25 years because there\u2019s been no alternative. \u201cThis is a conservative electorate, they are terrified of Labor and the Greens \u2013 absolutely terrified,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n But with the byelection bringing new candidates and national attention, Burge anticipates a protest vote. \u201cI will be a swing voter. I was a conservative voter going back years, but what I\u2019ve seen throughout this long period of time is symptomatic of a bigger problem in Australia,\u201d Burge says.<\/p>\n When we interview Burge at a Deniliquin hotel on Tuesday evening, there is, coincidentally, a Milthorpe meet-and-greet happening in the next room. She stays to hear what the candidate has to say.<\/p>\n Over in Griffith, a growing city of 27,000 people, Rob Dowton is not giving Milthorpe any thought. \u201cI\u2019m not a fan,\u201d he says, behind the counter of the gun shop where he works. \u201cShe\u2019s probably a nice person, but she\u2019s sitting on the wrong side of the fence \u2013 she\u2019s a teal. We don\u2019t need any more of them, trying to control the country.\u201d<\/p>\n It\u2019s a label Milthorpe is trying hard to shake. \u201cI\u2019m not a teal and I can\u2019t relate to that, because they can\u2019t relate to our context,\u201d she says of inner-city independents. She likens herself to Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie.<\/p>\n But there\u2019s another option for these sceptical voters.<\/p>\n One Nation has been surging in opinion polls since the May election<\/a>, and is now usurping the Coalition in most surveys. After the South Australian election, Farrer\u2019s byelection will be the first indication of whether this converts at the ballot box. The party has narrowed its candidate list from 81 to four, sources said.<\/p>\n Last year\u2019s One Nation result in Farrer<\/a> was roughly on par with the national average, at 6.6 per cent of the primary vote, although it ran higher in some western booths. Whether Hanson brings in new voters on election day will determine whether the minor party makes inroads into federal parliament.<\/p>\n Dowton, who lives in nearby Leeton, could be one of them. \u201cI was a Sussan Ley fan, but from what has come out in the last three or four months, we need to find someone that\u2019s going to stand up for the electorate.\u201d New gun laws are one push factor \u2013 but it\u2019s not just the firearms issue. \u201cIt\u2019s water policies, it\u2019s roads, everything,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n \u201cWe need a shake up from what we\u2019ve been dealt for the last 20 years. I think a bit of fresh blood, if it\u2019s One Nation, would be good for the country. We\u2019re stale, and too many people are too comfortable with what\u2019s been happening, election after election … I don\u2019t know if it\u2019s just Labor. I think it\u2019s what came before that, as well.\u201d<\/p>\n He sees the Coalition has been trying to turn things around in the last few weeks, but he\u2019s not buying it. And the defection of Barnaby Joyce to One Nation adds credibility, in Dowton\u2019s mind. \u201cHe\u2019s a cocky himself, a cattle farmer up in the New England region, so he gets it,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n \u201cAll these politicians in central Sydney, Newcastle, Wollongong area \u2013 I don\u2019t think they understand what\u2019s actually happening out here. And I don\u2019t think they care, to an extent. City areas are where they\u2019re going to get majority. We\u2019ve been left behind out in regional NSW.\u201d<\/p>\n Norm Carl, a publican in Gerogery, outside of Albury, heard that sentiment when One Nation had an event at his pub two weeks ago. About 300 people showed up. He describes them as \u201creal country, normal, elderly people who\u2019d had enough\u201d. At least half were over 60, and the same proportion were farmers. \u201cThey could have been here to watch a tractor display.\u201d<\/p>\n Carl thinks many voters will be scared to pull the trigger on something new because people are weary of change \u2013 himself included, particularly when it comes to independents. Although he suspects that could be where things are headed, as independents consolidate their hold on neighbouring seats at a state level.<\/p>\n \u201cCountry people like country people. Country people also like no bullshit. I think it\u2019s extremely important to people in the country that they know and trust the candidate,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n Helen Dalton, the independent state MP, comes up often in conversations about good candidates. One Nation has been sounding her out.<\/p>\n The farmer from Yenda, just outside Griffith, has since 2019 represented the NSW seat of Murray \u2013 an electorate whose 110,000 square kilometres largely overlap the 126,000 square kilometres of Farrer; almost the entire electorate outside of Albury.<\/p>\n \u201cThe rise of One Nation is culminating because people are incredibly unhappy with the direction in which our country is going,\u201d Dalton tells this masthead.<\/p>\n \u201cPeople are discontented with both Labor and the Coalition, they\u2019re looking for someone who\u2019s going to speak their mind, and [Hanson\u2019s] unscripted. That\u2019s what they say: \u2018Well, at least Pauline\u2019s having a go\u2019.\u201d <\/p>\n Dalton will shake up the race if she runs, but she\u2019s keeping her cards close to her chest until after Ley resigns. She hasn\u2019t ruled anything in or out \u2013 including whether she will stand for One Nation, or on her own.<\/p>\n However, she knows the chaos of minor parties. Dalton was a Nationals member, until they knocked her back for preselection. Then she ran for Murray under the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers banner, and snatched the seat from the Nationals in 2019.<\/p>\n \u201cThat ended in tears,\u201d she says, referring to her becoming an independent in 2022. \u201cObviously, I\u2019m not a great party person, because I can\u2019t follow a stupid policy and that\u2019s it.\u201d<\/p>\n Dalton boosted her result as an independent at the 2023 state election, winning 50.2 per cent of first preferences. In a two-candidate race with the Nationals, it came to 66-34. If this held up in a federal contest, it would put Dalton in strong contention.<\/p>\n Her profile is smaller around Albury, which is held safely at a state level by Liberal MP Justin Clancy. She can, however, campaign with runs on the board from her time in NSW parliament.<\/p>\n![\"Sussan](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/75833a0d5ad5d6dbd0606158fb014c75e27018d0.jpeg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"Almost](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/7186ef67d8f2fb6c079085526395df4c0ca3921a.jpeg\")
Almost half the electorate lives in the city of Albury, where all booths were won by an independent at the last election. But the politics of Farrer shift with its geography \u2013 and the battle outside Albury could shape the result.Alex Ellinghausen<\/p>\n![\"Michelle](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/e577cab46dfd5221dd2e3b3094c2049b18ba0477.jpeg\")
Michelle Milthorpe\u2019s campaign has been the first out the door, starting ahead in what will be a messy contest.Alex Ellinghausen<\/p>\n![\"Sussan](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/33f0f68cfa41e900b7d6e74a2c02f8c83786973e09efe562f730715d4b06e323.jpeg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/1d122047dd60359724717cec03cafe62e9a5fb44.jpeg\")
A campaign barbecue for Michelle Milthorpe campaigners, who are mobilising in Albury.Alex Ellinghausen<\/p>\n![\"Rob](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/46f5847f49a18498898306d7761c41d9b93470d0.jpeg\")
Rob Brown, a family business consultant, once handed out how-to-votes for Sussan Ley.Alex Ellinghausen<\/p>\n![\"Deniliquin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/9549fce62aba9842aaa029a0ba840a86e0c6ce0c.jpeg\")
Deniliquin farmer Louise Burge, who has represented farmers for decades, says they are feeling broken.Alex Ellinghausen<\/p>\n![\"Burge](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/9d01bf4038e7f0a06cc6909712542a81ec2b2867.jpeg\")
Burge meets Milthorpe at a meet-and-greet, as she contemplates how to vote at the upcoming byelection.Alex Ellinghausen<\/p>\n![\"Rob](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/69542b61e84c73d73858cae6e4a29156dcb02284.jpeg\")
Rob Dowton says the region is ready for a shake-up, and he\u2019s confident Barnaby Joyce understands the region.Alex Ellinghausen<\/p>\n![\"Norm](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/68821d3cd10eec323533bc23bd3d416e3bb62a37.jpeg\")
Norm Carl says his customers \u2013 from young people to generational farmers \u2013 talk about feeling stressed and uncertain about the future.Alex Ellinghausen<\/p>\n![\"Helen](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/13e96379ab54251c4a91a911131c020fab131c71.jpeg\")
Helen Dalton has boosted her margin as an independent at the state level.Alex Ellinghausen<\/p>\n
![\"Business](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/9b9ddd271d5eedb7d6470fed425033249ff23ab8.jpeg\")
Business owner Manjit Lilly is unimpressed by One Nation, particularly given how central immigration has been to Griffith\u2019s economy for decades.Alex Ellinghausen<\/p>\n![\"If](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/29aeb8dd3327a50aded0bb6f0a3b580a9619855a.jpeg\")
If the tide turns against the Coalition at the Farrer byelection, Nick Flanagan doesn\u2019t think voters will go back.Alex Ellinghausen<\/p>\n