Regression is just a word, amigos. It doesn\u2019t have to be a dirty word, and sometimes it can be a happy word. Smart fantasy football managers are always trying to identify outliers from the past, with the aim of being careful with what\u2019s likely to happen next. If a player ran unreasonably hot or cold in the prior season, we know that production is likely to level out in the following campaign.<\/p>\n
Lester Bangs tried to tell us this a long time ago: You\u2019ll meet everyone again on their long journey to the middle<\/a>.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season<\/a>]<\/p>\n Mind you, if you identify the right positive outliers (or avoid the right negative ones), you have a strong first step towards winning your league. So today\u2019s assignment is an important one \u2014 let\u2019s find some statistical outliers from the 2024 season and try to figure out how to project those situations going forward.<\/p>\n QB Lamar Jackson, Ravens<\/p>\n Jackson didn\u2019t win the MVP in 2024, but he surely had his best season, setting career bests in several categories (passing yards, touchdown passes, QB rating, touchdown to interception ratio; just to name a few). But his touchdown percentage of 8.6% will be hard to repeat \u2014 consider that he had rates of 4.2, 5.2 and 5.3 in the three previous seasons.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n Spin: Although Jackson probably just had what will stand as the best season of his career, it\u2019s also reflective of a talented player reaching total command of the game \u2014 like many athletes, Jackson found a spike year in his age-27 season. It\u2019s foolish to expect a major drop-off given Baltimore\u2019s loaded offense and the shrewd schemes of OC Todd Monken, and Jackson rightfully will be the QB1 on many (perhaps most) draft boards. Josh Allen would never admit it publicly, but he\u2019d surely trade supporting casts in a second.<\/p>\n RB Saquon Barkley, Eagles<\/p>\n You surely know the stat by now \u2014 Barkley had 482 touches last year (including the playoffs), a gigantic number. But there\u2019s another stat I can\u2019t get out of my mind \u2014 Barkley\u2019s 15 touchdowns came with a staggering average of 29.4 yards last year<\/a>, and he didn\u2019t have a single score from the 1-yard line (that\u2019s tush push territory for Jalen Hurts).<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n Spin: Barkley enters his eighth season in the league, and he\u2019s missed at least three games in four of those seasons. It\u2019s a cinch he\u2019ll lose some of last year\u2019s touches, and the long touchdown rate isn\u2019t going to repeat either. I understand it\u2019s no fun to fade a player who just turned in the monster season Barkley had, but we need to skate to where the puck is headed, not where it\u2019s been. In the first round, I\u2019d prefer younger backs like Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs in front of Barkley.<\/p>\n RB James Cook, Bills<\/p>\n By the efficiency stats, Cook had a season similar to his career path last year<\/a> \u2014 his YPC bumped up slightly, his success rate dipped slightly. His yards per reception and yards per target both fell, and he had 12 fewer catches than the previous season. But Cook landed as the RB8 because of how pure he ran with touchdowns \u2014 he spiked 18 times last year, after a modest six touchdowns in the previous season.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n Spin: Cook is unhappy with his contract, a situation that will likely clear itself up before opening week \u2014 although it\u2019s still worth mentioning. But it\u2019s extremely doubtful Cook can match last year\u2019s touchdown count, given that Buffalo has a mobile and athletic quarterback in Josh Allen and capable understudy backs in Ray Davis and Ty Johnson. And while Cook is the obvious head of this backfield, he\u2019s not really built to be a workhorse \u2014 he checks in at 190 pounds, and averages just under 16 touches per game over the past two seasons. Tread carefully here.<\/p>\n QB Jordan Love, Packers<\/p>\n Love tumbled from QB5 to QB17 last year, but that was mostly driven by volume. A slew of his key efficiency stats actually improved<\/a> \u2014 Love had a better touchdown rate, a better sack-avoidance rate and a healthy jump in YPA. Two missed games contributed to his fantasy drop, though Love also slotted a modest QB18 in points per game<\/a>.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n Spin: The Packers ranked 16th in pass rate over expected back in 2023, but they slipped to 31st last year \u2014 perhaps because Love suffered an MCL sprain at the end of the season-opening loss in Brazil. The Yahoo market is giving you a QB16 sticker on Love this summer, which obviously presents a profit opportunity. It’s unlikely the Packers will be this run-heavy again.<\/p>\n WR Tyreek Hill, Dolphins<\/p>\n It got late awfully early for Hill in 2024 \u2014 he didn\u2019t have a single reception over 30 yards after Week 1. We saw a crash landing from Hill\u2019s efficiency (his YPC fell by 3.3 yards) and volume (he lost 48 targets, 38 catches and seven touchdowns from the previous season). Hill also missed the Pro Bowl for the first time in his nine-year career.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n Spin: Hill\u2019s year-long slump had a lot of factors \u2014 Tua Tagovailoa dealt with concussion problems, and the Miami offensive line didn\u2019t play well, which discouraged the team from calling deep pass plays. Unfortunately for Hill, Tagovailoa remains an injury risk, and the line still looks questionable. We also have to wonder about Hill\u2019s commitment (at times it seems like he\u2019s unhappy in Miami) and his level of skill (this is a 10-year vet heading into his age-31 season). Even with the market offering a discount on Hill, this is not a play I\u2019m likely to make.<\/p>\n If you want to bet on a comeback in this passing game, focus on Jaylen Waddle.<\/p>\n TE Trey McBride, Cardinals<\/p>\n Some people are allergic to pollen, or bees or certain kinds of medication. McBride\u2019s apparently holding a touchdown allergy. Despite 221 catches over three NFL seasons, he\u2019s only caught six touchdown passes. It\u2019s not for a lack of opportunity \u2014 McBride saw 21 red-zone targets last year, second-most among tight ends. But only one of those passes from in close went for a touchdown.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n