{"id":508807,"date":"2026-02-28T02:44:09","date_gmt":"2026-02-28T02:44:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/508807\/"},"modified":"2026-02-28T02:44:09","modified_gmt":"2026-02-28T02:44:09","slug":"polls-preferences-potential-defections-can-victorias-liberal-party-ward-off-the-rising-threat-of-one-nation-victorian-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/508807\/","title":{"rendered":"Polls, preferences, potential defections: can Victoria\u2019s Liberal party ward off the rising threat of One Nation? | Victorian politics"},"content":{"rendered":"

While internal divisions have long been the Victorian Liberal party\u2019s main obstacle to winning government<\/a>, a new threat is emerging on its right flank: One Nation.<\/p>\n

Just four years ago, One Nation<\/a> received just 8,077 lower house first-preference votes out of more than 3.6m cast in Victoria \u2013 equivalent to 0.22% of the total \u2013 and won a single seat in the upper house.<\/p>\n

But the first batch of polls conducted this year suggests a much stronger showing at this November\u2019s state election, with One Nation commanding anywhere from 11% of first preference votes (Resolve<\/a>) to as high as 26.5% (Roy Morgan<\/a>).<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a marked jump from late 2025. The final publicly reported poll of that year, conducted by Redbridge\/Accent Research<\/a>, showed that 4% of people were going to vote for a \u201cminor right-wing party\u201d (their latest poll, due soon, will separately categorise One Nation).<\/p>\n

There are significant caveats attached to the numbers, including sample sizes, margins of error and methodological limitations. It\u2019s also unclear whether they are an accurate demographic and geographic breakdown of the state. (For one, it\u2019s hard to imagine anyone under 25 answering a number they don\u2019t know and agreeing to a survey. And if they do, it\u2019s unclear whether they would represent most people their age).<\/p>\n

One Nation spent the summer campaigning against the Labor government\u2019s bushfire response<\/a>. In January, it confirmed it will field a candidate in each lower and upper house seat in its \u201cbiggest election yet\u201d in Victoria.<\/p>\n

Former premier Jeff Kennett campaigning for the Liberals at the 2025 election. Kennet has urged the state Liberals to strike a deal with One Nation. Photograph: Morgan Hancock\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

The minor party\u2019s focus on the state, combined with the polling surge, has some of the most senior Liberals on edge. Former premier Jeff Kennett earlier this month urged his party to direct preferences to One Nation<\/a> at the election, and if necessary, govern in minority with them, other minor parties and independents.<\/p>\n

Kennett\u2019s intervention has placed pressure on the Liberal party leader, Jess Wilson, to make her position known. She\u2019s repeatedly refused.<\/p>\n

\u201cPreference matters are always a matter for the party, and that will be a decision that\u2019s made much closer to the election. We\u2019re still nine months out,\u201d Wilson said at an event on Wednesday.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not my focus. My focus is getting Victorians to vote number one Liberal or Nationals.\u201d<\/p>\n

She\u2019s not wrong \u2013 it is still exceptionally early to make such a decision. It wasn\u2019t until mid-November 2022 that the Coalition confirmed it would put Labor last on its how-to-vote-cards, effectively handing the seat of Richmond to the Greens. (Few in the Liberal party believe they will do the same at this election, due to the Greens\u2019 position on the Israel-Gaza war).<\/p>\n

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One Liberal source said \u201cthe biggest impact\u201d of Liberal preferences will be on Labor-Greens contests, not on One Nation\u2019s electoral chances.<\/p>\n

The source, like many others in the party, remain skeptical that One Nation can surpass the Coalition in first preferences. They note in most seats, where the main contest is between Labor and Liberals, One Nation\u2019s votes would flow to one of the two major parties. It\u2019s if those votes end up favouring Labor that it could weaken the Coalition\u2019s chances of winning seats.<\/p>\n

As one senior Liberal put it: \u201cThe real question is whether One Nation will direct their preferences to us.\u201d<\/p>\n

They describe Kennett as being \u201cwell respected\u201d and a \u201cparty elder\u201d but has \u201czero influence\u201d on preference arrangements. This power rests firmly with Wilson, a moderate, the executive committee \u2013 a body dominated by moderates, including president Philip Davis<\/a> \u2013 and the new state director, Alyson Hannam, widely seen as centre-right.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe all know the pathway to winning in Victoria is firmly through the centre, not cozying up to extreme bigots,\u201d another senior Liberal said.<\/p>\n

They said the moderate grouping had been \u201cquietly working away\u201d to get stronger candidates for the November poll, including by extending nomination periods<\/a> and recruiting candidates from outside the party.<\/p>\n

Preselection contests for upper house seats<\/a> in March will also see more conservative MPs \u2013 including Moira Deeming, Bev McArthur, Renee Heath, Ann-Marie Hermans \u2013 challenged as part of efforts to consolidate the party\u2019s centrist appeal. This, however, carries potential consequences.<\/p>\n

Federal MP Barnaby Joyce earlier this month revealed multiple MPs from the Victorian Coalition had approached One Nation about defecting<\/a>. \u201cOf course those discussions are happening,\u201d he said at the time.<\/p>\n

Deeming is rumoured to be among them if she loses preselection. Some colleagues speculate a switch could occur even before the vote.<\/p>\n

Sources said Bernie Finn \u2013 who has joined One Nation after stints with Family First and the Democratic Labour Party after being kicked out of the Liberal party room \u2013 could even move regions to clear a path for her.<\/p>\n

Any defection from the Coalition would provide One Nation another upper house MP and the associated resources for roughly seven months.<\/p>\n

It would also give Labor more ammunition.<\/p>\n

Earlier this month, Wilson pulled out of an event headlined by Joyce<\/a> after the premier, Jacinta Allan, repeatedly accused her of \u201ccosying up\u201d to One Nation. And at parliament last sitting week, when Wilson rebuffed questions on preferences, the minister for multicultural affairs, Ingrid Stitt, issued a statement attempting to link her to Hanson\u2019s recent inflammatory statement about Muslims<\/a>. It was a long bow.<\/p>\n

\u201cYesterday, Jess Wilson refused to rule out cutting a deal with One Nation. Later that evening, Pauline Hanson went on a hateful and divisive tirade on national television,\u201d Stitt said.<\/p>\n

She said Wilson had to \u201ccome clean\u201d about whether she would \u201ccontinue aligning herself\u201d with Hanson or \u201cstand with Victoria\u2019s multicultural communities\u201d.<\/p>\n

Stitt said only Labor would protect Victoria\u2019s status as a \u201cproudly multicultural and multifaith state\u201d. This line was repeated by Labor MPs across community lunar new year celebrations that week.<\/p>\n

Liberal MPs are well aware of the risks of alienating Victoria\u2019s multicultural communities, which the party has long struggled to win over. They also know they need to win (and hold) inner-Melbourne seats, where Hanson is widely seen as divisive.<\/p>\n

What they choose to do next could prove decisive come November.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"While internal divisions have long been the Victorian Liberal party\u2019s main obstacle to winning government, a new threat…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":508808,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[64,63,44],"class_list":["post-508807","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-australia","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/508807","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=508807"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/508807\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/508808"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=508807"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=508807"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=508807"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}