Major revisions to India\u2019s gross domestic product data Friday showed it will take longer than expected to surpass Japan as the world\u2019s fourth-largest economy.<\/p>\n
The government published GDP using a new base year, estimating the size of the economy at 345.47 trillion rupees, in nominal terms, in the fiscal year ending in March. That was lower than 357.14 trillion rupees forecast under the previous data series.<\/p>\n
Using an average exchange rate for the period, GDP is estimated at about $4 trillion for the fiscal year. Japan\u2019s GDP reached $4.4 trillion in 2025.<\/p>\n
“Based on the nominal GDP size under the new series, which is lower than expected and also lower than the last series, it is unlikely that India\u2019s economic size will surpass Japan this year, or possibly even next year,\u201d said Sakshi Gupta, an economist at HDFC Bank.<\/p>\n
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and several senior government officials have already referred to India as the world\u2019s fourth-largest economy. The International Monetary Fund had previously forecast that India would reach that milestone in the current fiscal year.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s now unlikely, partly because India\u2019s currency depreciated nearly 5% against the dollar last year \u2014 reducing the value of GDP in dollar terms \u2014 while the yen strengthened.<\/p>\n
Even so, the trajectory is clear, given India\u2019s economy is expanding more than 7% and its mostly young population of 1.4 billion is growing. Japan\u2019s economy, meanwhile is expected to grow 1% in the current fiscal year, and its population is shrinking.<\/p>\n
Surpassing Japan would be more of a reflection of scale than prosperity for India. Per capita income in the country remains just above $3,000, a fraction of Japan\u2019s $36,390, according to IMF estimates for 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Major revisions to India\u2019s gross domestic product data Friday showed it will take longer than expected to surpass…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":509732,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,164,5305,1209],"class_list":{"0":"post-509731","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-economy","12":"tag-global-economy","13":"tag-india"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/509731","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=509731"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/509731\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/509732"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=509731"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=509731"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=509731"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}