By:\u00a0Stephen Kuper<\/p>\n
Just as the Cold War was characterised by a period of \u201cCompetitive Coexistence\u201d between the United States and the Soviet Union, our new multipolar world embodies this in a significantly more complex way, presenting significant challenges for Australia and its \u201cFight Tonight\u201d force.<\/p>\n
Human history has been defined and, in many ways, characterised by the inescapable tension of competitive coexistence between humanity\u2019s great kingdoms and empires.<\/p>\n
This competitive coexistence has served to create some of the greatest rivals in history, from Greece and Persia to Rome and Carthage, Britain and France, Korea and Japan and, more recently, Germany and France, and the United States and Soviet Union, former allies who turned on one another driven by ideological differences and competing ambitions for the world.<\/p>\n
However, following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990 and the dismantling of the \u201cEvil Empire\u201d, America emerged as the world\u2019s sole superpower, unrivalled, giving rise to the real Pax Americana or American Peace, formalising the post-Second World War economic, political and strategic order established in the waning days of the conflict.<\/p>\n
Fast forward nearly four decades and the heady days of the 1990s are now well and truly gone, with the emergence of not just one major power to contest the dominance of America, but multiple nations across the Indo-Pacific, Europe and South America of similar economic, political, strategic and demographic weight and potential.<\/p>\n
This is now giving rise to a period of fractured, contested and competitive coexistence as the world\u2019s established nations and emerging powers alike will increasingly grapple with and serve to reshape the way in which Australia and its allies across the Indo-Pacific, in particular, will need to improvise, adapt and overcome in record time.<\/p>\n
At the forefront of this analysis is Robbin Laird, celebrated American military and security analyst and prolific author, in a piece titled Competitive coexistence in a fractured world order, Authoritarianism, and the kill web revolution, detailing the way this new era of multipolar competition is rapidly limiting the efficacy and capacity of Australia\u2019s \u201cFight Tonight\u201d force\u2026.<\/p>\n
The Defence Imperatives of \u2018Competitive Coexistence\u2019<\/p>\n
What does all this mean for Australia\u2019s defence posture under competitive coexistence?<\/p>\n
In practice, Canberra must pursue a middle path. It will continue deepening alliances (US, AUKUS, Quad, south-east Asia) because collective action amplifies deterrence. Yet it must retain enough autonomy to act if allies hesitate. Laird called this \u201cstrategic independence\u201d, a deliberate build-up of credible capabilities so we are not entirely in another country\u2019s pocket.<\/p>\n
For Laird, key imperatives include:<\/p>\n
Readiness now (\u201cFight Tonight\u201d) \u2013 prioritise proven, quickly deliverable systems (air defences, drones, cyber) over distant-future programs.
\nIntegrated kill webs \u2013 invest in distributed sensor-shooter networks, both domestically and with allies, rather than relying solely on big-ticket platforms.
\nIndustrial resilience \u2013 rebuild sovereign production (munitions, microelectronics, AI tools) so that Australia can mobilise in wartime without crippling imports.
\nAllied ISR and support \u2013 embed Australian forces in multinational surveillance systems (space and cyber) as the backbone for targeting and situational awareness.<\/p>\n
These steps acknowledge that we will be locked in competition with authoritarian powers for decades. It is not about appeasing them; it is about making conquest and coercion expensive and unlikely.<\/p>\n
As Laird puts it, the goal is not to eradicate authoritarian regimes (an impossible task under nuclear deterrence and interdependence) but to manage the rivalry in a stable way \u2013 ensuring democracies like Australia maintain the credible force to defend their interests.<\/p>\n