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Peter Hartcher<\/a>Political and international editor<\/p>\nFebruary 28, 2026 \u2014 5:00am<\/p>\n
February 28, 2026 \u2014 5:00am<\/p>\n
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Remove items from your saved list<\/a> to add more.<\/p>\n Save this article for later<\/p>\n Add articles to your saved list and come back to them anytime.<\/p>\n Got it<\/p>\n AAA<\/p>\n A year before US President Donald Trump made his famous ride down the golden escalator to declare himself a candidate for the presidency, an obscure trade union official from Australia had made a troubling visit to the US.<\/p>\n Getting beyond the big coastal cities of America into its hinterland, the Australian realised that something was deeply awry. He wrote a note to himself on the plane back to Australia: \u201cIt feels like something is about to pop.\u201d<\/p>\n That union official was Peter Malinauskas<\/a>, the Labor premier of South Australia for the past four years. He recalls a \u201clovely dinner\u201d at a union member\u2019s home in Kentucky where he discovered the frustration and deep anger among American workers that he would later describe as \u201cbloody dangerous\u201d.<\/p>\n He didn\u2019t foresee that Trump would ride that anger all the way to the White House. But he did get a premonition of the sort of populism that roiled Europe, Britain and the US and that has now arrived in Australia.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019ve never thought that Australia would be immune,\u201d Malinauskas tells me, although he describes mandatory voting as long exerting a stabilising \u201cballast\u201d effect for Australia.<\/p>\n \u201cBut now we are here,\u201d with Pauline Hanson\u2019s One Nation challenging the Liberal Party for the status of official opposition. \u201cTime will tell whether this popularity of One Nation translates to the ballot box.\u201d<\/p>\n But not much time. South Australia will be the first real-world test for the rampant One Nation since its poll surge that began around September last year. The state election is due in three weeks. Malinauskas will be Australia\u2019s frontline defender against the same populist rage that he first felt in provincial America in 2014.<\/p>\n In the three polls on the South Australian election published so far, One Nation has been ahead of the Liberal Party in every one. The margin of its advantage over the Libs ranges from a scant 1 per cent in a Demos poll<\/a> up to a whopping 10 percentage points in a Newspoll<\/a>.<\/p>\n Labor\u2019s hold on power does not appear to be at risk. After four years in power, Malinauskas is enormously popular, his government has a big majority and it seems set to increase its dominance. How so?<\/p>\n \u201cHe\u2019s charismatic, he looks the part, he\u2019s eloquent, he\u2019s a family man, he plays footy, he\u2019s the complete package \u2013 but people see through that after a while,\u201d says Ed Cavanough, chief executive of the Labor-aligned McKell Institute<\/a> think tank.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat explains his sustained and rising popularity is that he delivers for South Australia.\u201d Not that he\u2019s kept every promise. The persisting problem of ambulance ramping, Malinauskas freely confesses, is \u201ca failure point of the government. You have to be honest with people\u201d.<\/p>\n But he is prepared to lead tough fights, says Cavanough: \u201cIt\u2019s not about being in the mushy middle and being conciliatory all the time. Every now and then, there will be a big issue with winners and losers and you need to have the fight and demonstrate your values.\u201d For instance, \u201cno one thought he could win the battle over the teenage social media ban<\/a>, but Prime Minister Antony Albanese followed suit and now the idea is ricocheting around the world.\u201d<\/p>\n Malinauskas stood against his own party to ban all political donations; <\/a>he decisively took the failing Whyalla steelworks<\/a> into state control; he\u2019s a huge advocate for AUKUS and the billions it brings to his state; and he successfully seized big events like the AFL Gather Round<\/a> and the LIV golf tournament<\/a>. The 45-year-old says he leads an \u201cunapologetically pro-business and pro-investment Labor government\u201d.<\/p>\n He took a risk to push the pace of home-building; the state increased water use charges above and beyond the inflation rate, using the funds raised to build more water infrastructure. As he says: \u201cWithout water, houses don\u2019t get built. It\u2019s starting to make a difference.\u201d<\/p>\n But South Australians suffer the same cost-of-living frustrations as everyone else in the country. Why doesn\u2019t this seem to weigh on Malinauskas\u2019 approval rating, which is an impressive 67 per cent in the latest Newspoll<\/a>, with disapproval of 27?<\/p>\n Cavanough says that Malinauskas, in material terms as well as in morale, has made South Australians feel better about their state and their future. \u201cWhen I left uni in South Australia, I left the state, as everyone did. That\u2019s starting to change.\u201d<\/p>\n Indeed, Cavanough proposes Malinauskas as a model centre-left leader. Resolve Strategic pollster Jim Reed<\/a>, brackets him with NSW Labor Premier Chris Minns: \u201cThey draw a line, take a stand and fight for it, as Minns did after the Bondi massacre, as Malinauskas did with the social media ban. It\u2019s old-style conviction politics \u2013 who knew that would work?\u201d<\/p>\n In his own words, Malinauskas says: \u201cI like the idea that political leaders are decisive. Electorates are right to expect leaders to lead and make decisions. Avoid finger-pointing and just do things. I think sometimes we can be too risk-averse.\u201d<\/p>\n Is this a contrast with the perpetual dirge about Albanese\u2019s supposed lack of ambition? Cavanough thinks so: \u201cThere\u2019s a huge restlessness in the Labor left that Albanese is not delivering enough change. The conversation is all about what he\u2019s not doing.\u201d Malinauskas, however, defends the prime minister: \u201cI\u2019ve been in the room where he\u2019s been very decisive indeed. With the national health agreement, the NDIS agreement, his position on AUKUS is big and important for our country.\u201d<\/p>\n Related Article So the status of the South Australian Liberals as a rump is partly because of Malinauskas\u2019 success, and not only because of their haplessness, their three leaders in four years, a deep ideological fracture and a complete lack of any identifiable purpose. A description which, of course, could apply just as well to the federal Liberals.<\/p>\n The immediate question for the South Australian election is whether the Liberals, who now hold 13 seats in a 47-seat lower house, can hold any seats at all. And whether One Nation, for the first time, can displace one of the two long-standing parties of government. It would be, says Malinauskas with considerable understatement, a \u201csignificant moment\u201d.<\/p>\n A racist party vying for power, rather than ranting from the fringe, in one of the world\u2019s most multicultural nations would be more than significant. It could be socially ruinous.<\/p>\n Even though a state parliament doesn\u2019t make immigration policy, a Hanson beachhead as the official opposition in an Australian parliament would validate the party\u2019s naked contempt for outgroups, for \u201cthe other\u201d. Hanson, over the years, has vilified Asian Australians, Indigenous Australians and Muslim Australians.<\/p>\n Labor can\u2019t be smug, however. Even if it\u2019s safe in SA for now, Labor is vulnerable. In a startling finding this week, 58 per cent of respondents<\/a> told the pollsters they were \u201copen\u201d to voting One Nation at the next federal election, due in two years.<\/p>\n Among Labor voters, one-third said they\u2019d be open to it. Voters\u2019 partisan loyalties are feeble and fading; it\u2019s a moment of tremendous fluidity.<\/p>\n The March 21 election in South Australia is shaping as much more than a provincial scuffle over who rules in Adelaide. It\u2019s a referendum on the viability of Australia\u2019s existing two-party system. Are future elections to be a competition to offer solutions or a competition of promised destruction?<\/p>\n What\u2019s driving One Nation\u2019s support? \u201cA sense of frustration with political parties \u2013 left and right \u2013 generated by a sense of economic inequity or a feeling that economic opportunity is harder to come by,\u201d Malinauskas says.<\/p>\n Related Article \u201cThere\u2019s a sense in the community \u2013 and it has merit \u2013 that the intergenerational compact is at risk. In the most immediate contest, the most profound example is housing.\u201d<\/p>\n The so-called \u201cculture wars\u201d, he says, \u201chave exacerbated\u201d the economic aggravation. Around the world, \u201cidentity politics is unhealthy and both sides of politics have invoked it to suit themselves\u201d.<\/p>\n The political left has campaigned to promote transgenderism and antisemitism, while the political right has promoted xenophobia and disdain for feminism. \u201cThat\u2019s set the foundation for populism to manifest.\u201d<\/p>\n How to tackle destructive populism? Malinauskas has a two-pronged approach. One, he says, is to confront and criticise leaders like Hanson for divisiveness, while appealing to people who may be thinking of voting for her.<\/p>\n \u201cIt doesn\u2019t hurt to speak plainly about things,\u201d he says. \u201cTalking about immigration and how important it is to our country. The idea that we can switch off migration and the housing problem is solved \u2013 it\u2019s not right. Who\u2019s building the houses?\u201d<\/p>\n The industry depends on immigrants, he says: \u201cIf we didn\u2019t have them, housing construction would decline. People aren\u2019t silly. They understand when you explain.\u201d In its first week, Labor\u2019s campaign has been all about housing. The state claims to have the fastest growth rate of new housing in the country.<\/p>\n Critically, Malinauskas says a party of government \u201cmust not only identify problems; it must talk about solutions. Otherwise, you\u2019re just like them\u201d, the populists peddling junk answers to complex problems. Or, as Cavanough frames it, South Australia\u2019s choice is between \u201cambition and extremism\u201d.<\/p>\n Peter Hartcher is political editor. <\/p>\n Get a weekly wrap of views that will challenge, champion and inform your own. Sign up for our Opinion newsletter<\/a>.<\/p>\n Save<\/p>\n You have reached your maximum number of saved items.<\/p>\n Remove items from your saved list<\/a> to add more.<\/p>\n![\"Illustration](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/24f0c9475a8ae631fa440064173e8064e7beed7b.jpeg\")
Illustration by Joe Benke <\/p>\n![\"Peter](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/977f3efd993311735c0c69c3f5e8156b53b49ede.jpeg\")
Peter Malinauskas with his family and supporters at Labor\u2019s official campaign launch last Sunday.AAP<\/p>\n![\"Pauline](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/2db0130a3caac3a56a93b534ce095c89162da195.jpeg\")
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<\/a><\/p>\n![\"Peter](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/1769886622_572_5c9fa7fc6e81168375a4fb94fe693160296b3c45.png\")
Peter Hartcher<\/a> is political editor and international editor of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect via email<\/a>.From our partners<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Opinion Peter HartcherPolitical and international editor February 28, 2026 \u2014 5:00am February 28, 2026 \u2014 5:00am Save You…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":510051,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[64,63,44],"class_list":["post-510050","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-australia","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/510050","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=510050"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/510050\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/510051"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=510050"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=510050"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=510050"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}