{"id":510316,"date":"2026-02-28T19:47:11","date_gmt":"2026-02-28T19:47:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/510316\/"},"modified":"2026-02-28T19:47:11","modified_gmt":"2026-02-28T19:47:11","slug":"brisbane-are-strong-flag-favourites-but-could-sydney-come-from-the-clouds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/510316\/","title":{"rendered":"Brisbane are strong flag favourites, but could Sydney come from the clouds?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Normal text sizeLarger text sizeVery large text size<\/p>\n

Are Brisbane destined to emulate super coach Leigh Matthews from two decades ago and achieve a three-peat of flags? Is the Brownlow Medal Nick Daicos\u2019s to lose, or will he experience the heartache of another second place? What about the new AFL top 10 finals system and a \u201cwildcard\u201d weekend of finals \u2013 the right ingredients for a better season or more meaningless matches instead of fewer?<\/p>\n

Our football experts have their say on these big questions and more in our time capsule of predictions. Scroll down to explore our team-by-team interactive, where our scribes have assessed each club in detail and had a crack at what the ladder will look like after a marathon home-and-away season in round 24. You can also submit your prediction on each club\u2019s finishing position. Chief football writer Jake Niall gives a snapshot look at every team, tipping another Lions premiership but also a \u201cvicious rebound\u201d from Sydney.<\/p>\n

Our pundits expect another grim season for West Coast, and more grind for lowly clubs Richmond and North Melbourne? But will there be a \u201csurprise\u201d club in the bottom three – perhaps either Melbourne, Essendon or Port Adelaide? Collingwood and GWS are popular picks as clubs to \u201cslide\u201d in 2026. In the case of the Giants, injuries are expected to bite but, for the Magpies, as one expert puts it: \u201cFather Time is undefeated\u201d.<\/p>\n

At the top of the ladder, the Lions are all the rage but their Queensland rivals Gold Coast are attracting plenty of fans. Few are willing to deviate from Brisbane as their premiership tip, but one pundit thinks the star-studded Geelong team will get the job done. Try and select the expert who thinks the GWS will claim second spot ahead of the finals.<\/p>\n

Our Real Footy podcast, featuring regulars Niall, Caroline Wilson and Michael Gleeson, returns in 2026, as does our weekly tipping podcast with Peter Ryan and Andrew Wu.<\/p>\n

What the experts thinkJimmy Bartel<\/p>\n

Premier: Brisbane
Brownlow: Caleb Serong (Fremantle)
Rising Star: Alex Tauru (St Kilda)
Story of the season: We will see our first televised tribunal hearing.
On the rise: St Kilda
On the slide: GWS. Injuries cruel them.
Headline you won\u2019t see: Meatloaf tribute act to headline grand final entertainment
Fans\u2019 biggest gripe: Grand final start time yearly debate
An AFL final 10 will mean: Dropping four or five games in a row during the season won\u2019t mean as much. The top six is important, the rest get ready for a rush at the end of the year.<\/p>\n

\"Docker<\/p>\n

Docker Caleb Serong (middle) is Jimmy Bartel\u2019s pick for the Brownlow.Credit: Getty Images<\/p>\n

Libby Birch<\/p>\n

Premier: Brisbane
Brownlow: Nick Daicos. After his outstanding recent Origin performance, surely this is the year. He\u2019s controlling games, not just highlights.
Rising Star: Jagga Smith (Carlton). After suffering an ACL last year, this youngster already looks like a ready-made AFL footballer and is primed to take the Blues\u2019 midfield by storm.
Story of the Season: Brisbane Lions continue to prove the grand final hangovers don\u2019t exist.
On the Rise: St Kilda. Aggressive in the sign-and-trade period last year, and with the right mix of youth and experience, the Saints look ready to finally break their streak of mediocrity.
On the slide: Collingwood. Sorry Pies fans \u2014 a dip feels inevitable. The list is ageing, and the bigger question looms: when does the club fully commit to regeneration?
Headline You Won\u2019t See: Turns out Hawthorn didn\u2019t need Zach Merrett anyway \u2013 because they win the flag.
Fans\u2019 Biggest Gripe: The removal of the centre bounce – another flashpoint for traditionalists who feel the game is drifting from its roots.
An AFL Final 10 Will Mean: More meaningful games – but a watered-down reward for excellence.<\/p>\n

Wayne Campbell<\/p>\n

Premier: Brisbane
Brownlow: Errol Gulden. Sydney will rise on the back of a fit and firing Errol.
Rising Star: Zeke Uwland (Gold Coast). Ready-made to play in the AFL and will be in a winning team.
Story of the season: Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. We love redemption stories.
On the rise: Richmond\u2019s 2024 No.1 draft pick Sam Lalor. He\u2019s ready to go.
On the slide: The bounce \u2026 and not before time.
Headline you won\u2019t see: We miss the bounce!
Fans\u2019 biggest gripe: The stand rule. But it\u2019s actually really good.
An AFL final 10 will mean: The weekend off before the finals will finally have a purpose.<\/p>\n

Michael Gleeson<\/p>\n

Brownlow: Nick Daicos (Collingwood).
Rising Star: Willem Duursma (West Coast).
Story of the season: Will Zach Merrett try to leave the Bombers again.
On the rise: Hawthorn co-captain James Sicily, fit again after he played injured last year.
On the slide: GWS. Too many injuries.
Headline you won\u2019t see: I\u2019ll get a haircut and stay off social media: Bailey Smith
Fans\u2019 biggest gripe: Victorian clubs complaining the AFL has given too many free leg-ups to Queensland.
An AFL final 10 will mean: Absolutely nothing to who wins the flag.<\/p>\n

\"Will<\/p>\n

Will Nick Daicos be smiling brightly on Brownlow night?Credit: AFL Photos<\/p>\n

Emma Kearney<\/p>\n

Premier: Brisbane
Brownlow: Nick Daicos. Has been super consistent over the last couple of seasons and a glimpse from the State of Origin game suggests he\u2019s going to take his game to another level at Collingwood.
Rising Star: Zeke Uwland. The classy Queenslander will provide some outside dash for Gold Coast. He\u2019ll be able to play a simple role, while Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson and Christian Petracca get more of the attention.
Story of the season: Zak Butters trade rumours and the speculation over his contract throughout the 2026 campaign. Will he return home to Victoria?
On the rise: Western Bulldogs. They arguably have one of the best midfields in the competition. If they can improve their defensive performance, they can challenge deep into finals.
On the slide: GWS. Over the past few seasons they\u2019ve had some really disappointing finals series. At their best, they are capable of beating anyone, but they lack depth in their squad and are starting the year with key players out through injury.
Headline you won\u2019t see: Trade regrets. With Christian Pretracca, Clayton Oliver and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan all finding new homes last year, expect them to have a huge impact for their new clubs. A fresh start is sometimes all a player needs.
Fans\u2019 biggest gripe: Inconsistency with the new ducking\/ prior opportunity rule. It\u2019s already a frustration among fans when small forwards get rewarded free kicks for the shrug of the shoulder, but it can be a hard decision to adjudicate at times which will leave fans angry.
An AFL final 10 will mean: A more exciting finish to the season, as more teams fight it out for a finals spot.<\/p>\n

\"Gold<\/p>\n

Gold Coast youngster Zeke Uwland.Credit: Justin McManus<\/p>\n

Sam McClure<\/p>\n

Premier: Sydney Swans
Brownlow: Nick Daicos. The lack of respect this man has received for football\u2019s highest honour has gone on long enough. This is the year he wins it.
Rising Star: Jagga Smith (Carlton). If he\u2019s half as good as Carlton think he is, this young man is going to make a difference in his first season. Helped by the fact that he\u2019ll play every game if he\u2019s fit.
Story of the season: Tensions inside AFL House reach boiling point as internal factions continue to haunt Andrew Dillon\u2019s reign as chief executive.
On the rise: Sydney. Charlie Curnow is exactly what Dean Cox\u2019s side need. If Chad Warner, Isaac Heeney and Errol Gulden stay fit, it\u2019s hard to see them missing the top four.
On the slide: Melbourne. The jury is still out on their new coach and football boss. That combined with losing Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca means Demons fans may have to be patient for a season or two. Could be a tough season.
Headline you won\u2019t see: Carlton rejuvenated after a complete gameplan overhaul
Fans\u2019 biggest gripe: Football is getting less accessible to the everyday fan.
An AFL final 10 will mean: A short-term sugar hit dressed up as innovation. More teams alive for longer, fewer games that truly matter and a competition that confuses tension with volume.<\/p>\n

Marc McGowan<\/p>\n

Premier: Brisbane
Brownlow: Nick Daicos (Collingwood). This is a boring prediction, but why would you guess anyone else after the superstar Pie finished runner-up the last two seasons?
Rising Star: Jagga Smith (Carlton). The second-year Blue missed his debut season because of an ACL rupture, but he is brilliant at stoppages and already impressing in the pre-season.
Story of the season: Clubs increasingly target free agent recruits with monstrous offers as compromised drafts, which Tasmania will only exacerbate, make it harder to unearth top-tier talent.
On the rise: Sydney. They underachieved in Dean Cox\u2019s first season, but boast some of the league\u2019s best players, added Charlie Curnow, and won six of their final eight games last year, including beating eventual premiers, the Brisbane Lions.
On the slide: Port Adelaide. There could be rough times ahead in the post-Ken Hinkley era. There are still some top-liners at Alberton, but a lack of depth may be a problem.
Headline you won\u2019t see: Clubs welcome Tasmania sniffing around their stars and young guns
Fans\u2019 biggest gripe: Paying an exorbitant, and continually increasing, monthly subscription for Kayo Sports.
An AFL final 10 will mean: Less importance on performing across the entire season, and a mediocre team that wins a one-off elimination game could feature in the finals.<\/p>\n

Jake Niall<\/p>\n

Premier: Brisbane
Brownlow: Noah Anderson (Gold Coast).
Rising Star: Jagga Smith (Carlton).
Story of the season: Lachie Neale\u2019s choices.
On the rise: Sydney, St Kilda.
On the slide: Collingwood.
Headline you won\u2019t see: Hawks land Merrett after Mitchell\u2019s apology to Dons
Fans\u2019 biggest gripe: Umpiring and technology (too much or not enough).
An AFL final 10 will mean: Two more sell-outs. Two fewer flag chances in September.<\/p>\n

Jon Pierik<\/p>\n

Premier: Geelong
Brownlow: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (St Kilda). More time in the midfield and forward of centre should have this star playmaker vaulting from his ninth-spot placing of 2025.
Rising Star: Jagga Smith (Carlton). Having missed his entire rookie year through injury, this silky onballer is ready to rebound. He knows how to find the ball \u2013 and use it.
Story of the season: The fates of Michael Voss and Alastair Clarkson. Will Voss see out the season should the Blues struggle? Plus the desperate need for the Kangaroos to finally improve in Clarkson\u2019s fourth season.
On the rise: Sydney. Injuries hurt in Dean Cox\u2019s first year in charge, but the addition of Charlie Curnow has the Swans eyeing a top-four berth.
On the slide: GWS. There\u2019s worries about the Giants. Injuries, age and wasted opportunities may finally catch up, but coach Adam Kingsley is one of the best in the business. The ageing Magpies are also a close watch.
Headline you won\u2019t see: Collingwood embrace youth policy
Fans\u2019 biggest gripe: No, not another mid-season rule tinkering.
An AFL final 10 will mean: More interest in the final six weeks of the season, but more questions whether a team potentially with a losing record should feature in the finals.<\/p>\n

\"Much<\/p>\n

Much is expected of St Kilda star Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera.Credit: AFL Photos<\/p>\n

Peter Ryan<\/p>\n

Premier: Fremantle
Brownlow: Nick Daicos (Collingwood). It\u2019s hard to go past him on any basis other than the fact he keeps finding one more favoured in front of him.
Rising Star: Zeke Uwland (Gold Coast) The chance to slot into a team on the rise alongside his brother after training with the squad as part of the Suns\u2019 academy makes him favourite.
Story of the season: St Kilda rise, or fall. Either way, it will be a ride. And, at times, it will get nasty.
On the rise: Gold Coast. If they do the work, their rise will continue at pace with Christian Petracca a huge asset and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan worth a punt.
On the slide: Adelaide. It\u2019s a harsh call but the loss of Mark Keane and Dan Curtin hurts and a tougher fixture will test them in 2026.
Headline you won\u2019t see: Emotional scenes as Richard Goyder farewelled
Fans\u2019 biggest gripe: The same as it has been for 100 years \u2013 umpiring.
An AFL final 10 will mean: An extra two games with a finals-like atmosphere that gives those finishing top four an added advantage. The only gripe will be if the pre-finals bye helps or hinders those facing wildcard winners in elimination finals.<\/p>\n

Scott Spits<\/p>\n

Premier: Brisbane Lions
Brownlow: Nick Daicos. It\u2019s hard to think a player could offer a better Brownlow formline over three years than what the (still young) Collingwood superstar produced in 2023, 2024 and 2025. He might win multiple Brownlows over his career, but he needs to start now.
Rising Star: Sid Draper (Adelaide). Last year\u2019s top draft picks, including Willem Duursma, will be in the mix but look down the list of prospects for this year\u2019s Rising Star. Draper played 10 games for Adelaide last year as the Crows racked up the wins at will.
Story of the season: The dominance of the Brisbane Lions. One flag was fun. Back-to-back triumphs were to be applauded. But to be in contention for three premierships in a row and potentially play four grand finals on the trot will start to grate on fans.
On the rise: Sydney. Let\u2019s assume it was a dip last year when the Swans had a 12-11 record for the season following their grand final appearance in 2024, when they were belted by the Lions. Sydney\u2019s chart will be on the up.
On the slide: Collingwood. A slide for the Magpies might simply mean finishing the season with 12 or 13 wins instead of the 16 victories they recorded last year. No opposition would fancy confronting Collingwood in the AFL\u2019s new \u201cwildcard weekend\u201d when teams between seventh and 10th fight for survival.
Headline you won\u2019t see: AFL perturbed by northern states\u2019 power as Lions, Suns eye off all-Queensland grand final
Fans\u2019 biggest gripe: The Saturday blackout on free-to-air TV. The pain won\u2019t go away quickly.
An AFL final 10 will mean: If any club, having finished in a spot from seventh to 10th, is good enough to win five finals to claim the premiership, they\u2019ll have earned it, no doubt about it.<\/p>\n

Mathew Stokes <\/p>\n

Premier: Gold Coast
Brownlow: Noah Anderson. It\u2019s the year of the Gold Coast Suns and Noah will lead them there.
Rising Star: Jagga Smith. One practice game and I\u2019m sold.
Story of the season: Gold Coast become a heavy weight.
On the rise: Carlton. I like the spread of talent across the board and players who will have a team-first mentality.
On the slide: Collingwood. Father Time is undefeated.
Headline you won\u2019t see: There isn\u2019t enough media coverage of the games or players
Fans\u2019 biggest gripe: The game is out of touch with grassroots, but the game is now a business. And it\u2019s bigger than ever.
An AFL final 10 will mean: Nothing. The best teams will still be there in preliminary final week.<\/p>\n

\"New<\/p>\n

New Sydney player Charlie Curnow.Credit: Eddie Jim<\/p>\n

Caroline Wilson<\/p>\n

Premier: Brisbane
Brownlow: Noah Anderson
Rising Star: Jagga Smith
Story of the season: Two senior coaches will walk away from the job while still in contract. Two more will be forcibly removed.
On the rise: The standard of umpiring now centre bounces are gone
On the slide: Long-term playing and coaching contracts
Headline you won\u2019t see: Luke Beveridge signs a recording deal
Fans\u2019 biggest gripe: Fully ticketed games and the growing cost of pay TV
An AFL final 10 will mean: 1) the AFL will surpass the NRL in broadcast numbers 2) at least one top eight team will miss September 3) AFLW will again struggle to make an early season splash<\/p>\n

Andrew Wu<\/p>\n

Premier: Brisbane
Brownlow: Nick Daicos (Collingwood) is the best player in the league but if he is to be robbed of another major individual honour it\u2019ll be Sydney whiz Isaac Heeney who takes Charlie home.
Rising Star: Few debuts have been eagerly awaited as that of Jagga Smith (Carlton), and fans will understand why when they see this young dynamo get to work alongside Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps.
Story of the season: The weekly smashing of the AFL over umpiring, fixturing, draft equality and even the price of pies at the footy to heap more pressure on chief executive Andrew Dillon.
On the rise: The resurgence of two-time Coleman medallist Charlie Curnow (Sydney) will make the Swans at the SCG the hottest ticket in town. With their top-end talent, anything short of the top four would be a disappointment.
On the slide: GWS. It may not necessarily be reflected in ladder position but, crunched by injuries to some of their best and most important players, the Giants will find it hard to match their 16 wins last year.
Headline you won\u2019t see: Saints call for loosening of father-son and academy rules
Fans\u2019 biggest gripe: Umpiring. It\u2019s never their team\u2019s fault they lost.
An AFL final 10 will mean: Snide remarks whether wildcard finals should come with an asterisk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Normal text sizeLarger text sizeVery large text size Are Brisbane destined to emulate super coach Leigh Matthews from…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":510317,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[560],"tags":[638,64,63,55,639,85],"class_list":["post-510316","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-afl","tag-afl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-australian-football-league","tag-australianfootballleague","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/510316","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=510316"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/510316\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/510317"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=510316"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=510316"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=510316"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}