{"id":510372,"date":"2026-02-28T20:25:16","date_gmt":"2026-02-28T20:25:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/510372\/"},"modified":"2026-02-28T20:25:16","modified_gmt":"2026-02-28T20:25:16","slug":"one-nation-might-not-only-be-a-coalition-problem-there-are-warning-signs-for-labor-too-australian-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/510372\/","title":{"rendered":"One Nation might not only be a Coalition problem \u2013 there are warning signs for Labor too | Australian politics"},"content":{"rendered":"

One Nation\u2019s surge in popularity, up to a 22% primary vote in the latest Guardian Essential poll<\/a> after outrage over Pauline Hanson\u2019s comments about Australian Muslims, has been largely explained as a Coalition problem: disillusioned Liberal or National voters, exhausted with conservative chaos, parking their vote with another rightwing party. But this week\u2019s Essential poll, showing 45% of Labor voters surveyed were open to voting for One Nation, holds warning signs for the government too.<\/p>\n

The mood inside Labor could be summarised as alert, but not alarmed. Ministers are already sharpening their attack lines on One Nation \u2013 its opposition to Labor\u2019s cost of living and industrial relations policies, Hanson\u2019s ties to Gina Rinehart <\/a>\u2013 but the government is cognisant that a bread-and-butter focus on tax, housing and social issues is needed to plug any leakage to the rightwing populist party.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhilst there will be a cohort that will drift to One Nation<\/a>, because of [the party\u2019s] divisive nature and their lack of real policies, it\u2019s less likely to affect us,\u201d says Labor MP Mike Freelander.<\/p>\n

This week\u2019s Essential poll found 58% of respondents were open to voting for One Nation at the next federal election, which is due by 2028. That includes 12% of people currently voting Labor who said they\u2019d definitely vote One Nation next time, while another 33% were open to it.<\/p>\n

For Coalition<\/a> voters, 17% said they would definitely vote One Nation, with 51% open to it.<\/p>\n

Hanson\u2019s office was contacted for comment.<\/p>\n

A One Nation source said the party wasn\u2019t entirely surprised by the polling, noting it had long courted traditional blue-collar Labor voters who may feel as if that party\u2019s focus was on cities, professional workers and younger people.<\/p>\n

Opinion polls are a point-in-time reflection of mood, and many veteran observers doubt one-fifth of the electorate will actually vote for One Nation. The looming South Australian election, and the NSW Farrer byelection will test One Nation\u2019s on-ground organisational skills.<\/p>\n

\"IfIf Pauline Hanson feels unwelcome in this Sydney suburb, she is the only one \u2013 video<\/p>\n

But Labor\u2019s strategy to hold off a One Nation insurgency is becoming clearer.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t represent working people \u2026 they oppose every advance that trade unions have ever made,\u201d Albanese told Nine host Karl Stefanovic\u2019s podcast this week. He rattled off One Nation\u2019s opposition to \u2018same job same pay\u2019 legislation which targets labour hire loopholes mostly in the mining sector, increases to penalty rates and pay increases for aged care workers.<\/p>\n

Labor\u2019s biggest One Nation scare in 2025 was in the mining-rich Hunter region of NSW, where Hanson\u2019s candidate Stuart Bonds got to the final two-party preferred count, although Labor\u2019s Dan Repacholi held his seat 59-41.<\/p>\n

Repacholi says he\u2019ll keep talking to constituents about health and economic policies, and \u2018same job same pay\u2019. He has called Hanson\u2019s comments about Muslims \u201cdisgusting\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s about getting out there and talking to people, having conversations at the pub, clubs, footy, knocking on their doors about what we\u2019re helping them with,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe live in a vibrant community in Australia, the Hunter is no different, and unfortunately some people are being tarnished.\u201d<\/p>\n

The environment minister, Murray Watt, from One Nation\u2019s Queensland heartland, conceded last week Labor would lose some votes, but his pitch to \u201cbattlers\u201d considering switching was about Hanson\u2019s opposition to reforms on housing, cheaper medicines and wages.<\/p>\n

Kos Samaras, a former Labor strategist who is now a director of polling group Redbridge, says that language isn\u2019t accidental. He concedes \u201ca small fraction\u201d of Labor voters have already moved to One Nation, painting a picture of the typical voter being in their 40s or 50s, working in the care economy, retail, hospitality or industry \u2013 in other words, someone benefiting from better conditions at work.<\/p>\n

But Samaras cautions against over interpreting polls about Labor voters\u2019 openness to One Nation. Potential Labor-to-Hanson voters are turned off by One Nation\u2019s extreme criticism of multicultural Australia, he claims, and he doesn\u2019t expect Labor to follow with tough crackdowns on migration.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s also the \u201cfed up\u201d factor \u2013 people voting not solely on policy, but because they are frustrated by the major parties and the cost of living. While One Nation has not presented a workable policy agenda or economic solutions, some voters may be willing to back a party promising to upturn the system.<\/p>\n

On a new online donations campaign, One Nation points to the polls saying the party needs \u201cyour help to break the party system\u201d.<\/p>\n

Combating this pitch is tough. Labor sources say rebuilding trust in government by delivering on promises and acting as a stable hand takes time; there\u2019s also a recognition that Labor shouldn\u2019t get caught up in conservative culture wars.<\/p>\n

One outer suburban Labor MP reckons there has always been an element of \u201cred\u201d One Nation voters, or working-class Labor voters flirting with Hanson, but that a focus on jobs, cost of living and infrastructure will stem that tide.<\/p>\n

Freelander concurrs.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe need to be positive about what we\u2019ve done in the last few years. We need to focus on the fact that Australia is a country of immigrants and our economy requires a certain amount of immigration,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

Peter Lewis, executive director of Essential, says there are \u201ctemplates about how not to respond\u201d to rightwing populist movements. He urges Labor not to echo Hillary Clinton\u2019s \u201cbasket of deplorables\u201d comments about Donald Trump\u2019s supporters, or to follow the British Labour government\u2019s crackdown on migrants in the face of Nigel Farage\u2019s anti immigration party Reform UK.<\/p>\n

\u201cLabor could go the long way round and get them from the left rather than the right \u2026 economic agendas, wages, workers rights is the way to get them back,\u201d Lewis told the Australian Politics podcast<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Albanese himself caught flak from leftwing critics for saying some \u201cgood people\u201d attended anti-immigration March For Australia rallies<\/a> last year, while condemning rallies for giving a platform to neo-Nazis. The assistant minister for citizenship, customs and multicultural affairs, Julian Hill, this week called for progressives to not dismiss \u201clegitimate concerns\u201d <\/a>about migration levels.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe trap for progressives is to fail to acknowledge that concerns are real,\u201d Hill said.<\/p>\n

Lewis predicts Labor will stick with its focus on day-to-day policy and service delivery, but he says the May budget could be an opportunity for the government to pick a fight \u2013 on capital gains tax, negative gearing or some other totemic issue \u2013 to show battling Australians that Albanese is paying attention to their concerns about inequality.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere needs to be some differentiation for people who would normally see themselves as progressive \u2026 but who want to see a fairer economy,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf that\u2019s not being delivered by the mainstream, we see how that movie ends, and it\u2019s happening all over the world.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"One Nation\u2019s surge in popularity, up to a 22% primary vote in the latest Guardian Essential poll after…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":510373,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[64,63,44],"class_list":["post-510372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-australia","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/510372","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=510372"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/510372\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/510373"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=510372"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=510372"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=510372"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}