{"id":511204,"date":"2026-03-01T06:09:07","date_gmt":"2026-03-01T06:09:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/511204\/"},"modified":"2026-03-01T06:09:07","modified_gmt":"2026-03-01T06:09:07","slug":"new-data-shows-immigration-impact-on-aussie-house-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/511204\/","title":{"rendered":"New data shows immigration impact on Aussie house prices"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Rental<\/p>\n

Experts said migration has had the most acute impact on the rental market, where long lines at open homes have become the norm. Picture: Sam Ruttyn<\/p>\n

Cutting migration back to pre-pandemic levels would trigger immediate relief for the nation\u2019s battered renters and first-home buyers, new modelling shows.<\/p>\n

The study by independent property research group FoundIt revealed migration cuts would slam the brakes on runaway prices, halting the \u201cstructural vice\u201d squeezing the entry-level housing market.<\/p>\n

Stripping roughly 100,000 people from the intake to return to pre-Covid levels would forcibly compress growth without causing a catastrophic housing crash, the study found.<\/p>\n

FoundIt\u2019s modelling showed that aligning migration with building completions would strip 2 to 3 per cent off national home price growth annually.<\/p>\n

The impacts would be immediate: Sydney prices, otherwise on track for a 2 per cent gain this year, would drop by about 1 per cent, while Melbourne, Canberra and Hobart prices would also drop.<\/p>\n

MORE: VIC $35k \u2018migration penalty\u2019 killing Melb suburbs<\/a><\/p>\n

QLD suburbs where migration has driven up prices<\/a><\/p>\n

NSW suburbs where prices would drop if migration cut<\/a><\/p>\n

\"Saturday<\/p>\n

Housing demand remains elevated. Picture: Rohan Kelly<\/p>\n

Home prices in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, currently running red-hot, would cool to a more sustainable 3 to 4 per cent annual growth range.<\/p>\n

The calls for a migration circuit breaker come as Institute of Public Affairs analysis showed housing supply has failed to match population growth.<\/p>\n

According to IPA analysis of 2025 data, net permanent and long-term arrivals hit a record-breaking 480,520, exceeding the previous 2023 record by 7 per cent. At the exact same time, housing approvals fell annually by 15 per cent in December 2025.<\/p>\n

MORE: Migrant, in Aus as student, has 56 homes<\/a><\/p>\n

This supply and demand dynamic helped push national dwelling prices up by about 7 per cent, or nearly $80,000 over 2025.<\/p>\n

FoundIt head of research Kent Lardner said bureaucrats and politicians have recklessly ignored the demand side of the equation.<\/p>\n

\"East<\/p>\n

Higher migration levels have driven up rents, which in turn have spilt over into the purchasing markets, FoundIt revealed. Picture: Rohan Kelly<\/p>\n

\u201cSince Covid, there has only been one issue talked about regarding house prices, which is supply. In reality, anyone who has done high school economics, knows its supply and demand,\u201d Mr Lardner said.<\/p>\n

\u201cOne thing we can control is demand from migration. It\u2019s that simple.\u201d<\/p>\n

Price relief would occur where it is needed most: the sub-$750,000 entry market, Mr Lardner said.<\/p>\n

Currently, new arrivals overwhelming enter the market via rentals and affordable purchase segments.<\/p>\n

Rent rises in turn made entry level properties more attractive for investors, pitting first-home buyers and aspiring landlords into brutal bidding wars for the same cheap stock, FoundIt showed.<\/p>\n

\"ANGUS<\/p>\n

Leader of the Opposition Angus Taylor has proposed migration cuts. Picture: NewsWire\/Tertius Pickard<\/p>\n

Removing the migration pressure on rents would provide renters and home buyers relief at the bottom end of the market, Mr Lardner said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe sub-$750,000 market is the most competitive in the country,\u201d he said. \u201cThat\u2019s where first-home buyers reliant on small deposits and investors often compete. If we ease migration, it helps that market.\u201d<\/p>\n

Among those calling for a reduction in migration is the new Liberal leader Angus Taylor, who has revealed the Coalition will back plans to enforce stricter migration controls.<\/p>\n

No specific numbers for planned intake have been revealed, but Mr Taylor has hinted at returning arrivals to pre-Covid levels.<\/p>\n

SQM Research director Louis Christopher said proposals by new Liberals leader Angus Taylor to cut migration levels could \u201cwork\u201d and deliver rental relief in \u201cabout six months\u201d.<\/p>\n

NET PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM ARRIVALS<\/p>\n

\"\"\/<\/p>\n

Net permanent and long-term arrivals. Source: IPA, ABS<\/p>\n

He noted the Labor government had fallen behind its goal to build 1.2 million new homes by 2029, explaining that migration cuts most effective if implemented before 2028.<\/p>\n

\u201c(Intake) should have been cut years ago,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Mr Christopher said the biggest impact of a temporary reduction in migration intake would be on rents.<\/p>\n

Relief would be strongest in the gateway cities of Sydney and Melbourne, where migrants typically land first, Mr Christopher said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf (migration) dropped, you would see rents fall in Sydney and Melbourne,\u201d Mr Christopher said.<\/p>\n

MORE: Dumb AI-inspired reno trend devaluing homes<\/a><\/p>\n

\"Future<\/p>\n

The Albanese government has been criticised for the rate of new housing construction. Picture: David Caird<\/p>\n

He noted that the skyrocketing rents seen over the post-border reopening period were the \u201cdirect result of a surge in population, driven in large part by excessive migration\u201d.<\/p>\n

Dr Kevin You, senior fellow at the IPA, called the government\u2019s National Housing Accord \u201cone of the greatest policy failures of the past 25 years\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou do not need to be an economist to know that a flatlining housing supply and a large, migration-induced increase in housing demand results in higher rents, more expensive homes, and longer lines at rental inspections,\u201d Dr You said.<\/p>\n

Experts stressed that the problem was with political leadership, not the new arrivals.<\/p>\n

Mr Christopher pointed out the \u201cpolitical reluctance\u201d to address demand, noting that suggesting temporary, cyclical cuts to match our broken housing supply should not be a \u201cpolitical issue\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are blaming ineffective policy,\u201d Mr Christopher said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is a time and place for strong migration, and time and place for weaker migration, we are in a period where we need weaker migration.\u201d<\/p>\n

Dr You added: \u201cThe blame for the problems caused by out-of-control mass-migration in recent years should be directed squarely at the federal government, not the migrants themselves. You cannot blame those wanting to come here to enjoy our way of life\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Experts said migration has had the most acute impact on the rental market, where long lines at open…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":511205,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[64,63,99],"class_list":{"0":"post-511204","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-business"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/511204","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=511204"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/511204\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/511205"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=511204"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=511204"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=511204"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}