12th: Melbourne<\/p>\n
Melbourne recently released a membership video that leaned into the cliches and the disappointment \u2013 one of the better executed and coherent offerings from the club in recent years. They were eight wins off finals last year. But they beat Brisbane at the Gabba, nearly beat Collingwood twice and ran top-placed Adelaide close. They lost half a dozen games by eight points or less.<\/p>\n
The new coach Steven King wants them to make mistakes, take risks and play with freedom and flair. They have drafted and trained for speed. At first glance, it\u2019s a very different approach to the cautious, rigid teams of Simon Goodwin. It\u2019s a good team to be a new coach of. It\u2019s a clean slate but it\u2019s not a rebuild. He has more champions and emerging talent to work with than most new coaches. He has rid himself of some hard-to-manage stars. And he has Kysaiah Pickett, who\u2019s been moving like a pronghorn in trial games.<\/p>\n
Kysaiah Pickett\u00a0 has impressed in pre-season for the Dees. Photograph: Craig Dooley\/AAP11th: Carlton<\/p>\n
An anxiety enveloped Carlton last year. For those in the stands, distributing off back, angling for a lifestyle change or simply writing columns about them, it was hard not to inhale it.<\/p>\n
Whether it\u2019s the coach at the best and fairest, a player fronting the press after a bad loss or a pokies grub on speed dial, they speak of the jumper, the history, the fans. But the only decisions that matter are made by outsiders. CEO Graham Wright was the ultimate outsider \u2013 a Collingwood man. He was given a lot of power, a lot of resources and a lot of time. He read the room, poured over the data and concluded that Michael Voss was not the problem, and that the team was capable of bouncing back quickly. It was a brave and unexpected move. And it was the first time the club took a deep breath all year.<\/p>\n
Voss still talks about contest and clearance far too often for my liking. But there are grounds for medium-and-long-term optimism. Jagga Smith is absolutely heaven sent, Sam Walsh is signed until the middle of the 2030s, they\u2019ll be better off without the distraction of Charlie Curnow and there are some outstanding prospects coming through. The challenge \u2013 for Wright, for the club, for fans and for those analysing them \u2013 will be the changed parameters within which the team and the coach are judged. \u201cOwnership alignment,\u201d Voss calls it.<\/p>\n
Carlton\u2019s future is bright with the likes of Jagga Smith on board. Photograph: James Ross\/AAP10th: St Kilda<\/p>\n
There was a patch in the middle of the 2025 season where it felt like the entire club had run out of puff, talent and hope. The coach was still swinging but he needed a win, a holiday and a new hip. They lost to the Eagles. They were eviscerated twice in as many months by the Western Bulldogs. No one was really talking about them. Only the really hardy turned up to watch them.<\/p>\n
But then Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera went berserk. It came out of nowhere. It placed the club at the centre of the news cycle. It secured him for another two years. It ended the senior coaching career of Simon Goodwin. And it engaged and galvanised the most loyal but hard bitten of supporter bases.<\/p>\n
Ross Lyon has been in fine fettle this summer. He knows how to play the media. He has a long memory. And he fights dirty. But does he have the cattle? Besides Wanganeen-Milera and the new recruits, the case for optimism lies squarely with the young players Lyon has nurtured, protected, clipped and cuddled. They\u2019re the key to extricating St Kilda from footy\u2019s lower middle class.<\/p>\n
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera\u2019s emergence was a highlight of last season. Photograph: Adam Trafford\/AAP9th: Geelong<\/p>\n
Geelong excel at putting bad losses behind them. In the immediate aftermath of last year\u2019s grand final, Chris Scott was framing it as an aberration, and hinting, as he tends to do, at mitigating circumstances. But the Cats were pulverised by the Lions, and footy history suggests that teams struggle to bounce back from losses like that.<\/p>\n
A lot went right for them last year. They only played two top-eight teams from the previous year twice, and they lost all four games. They had double ups against Richmond, St Kilda, Essendon and Port Adelaide.<\/p>\n
The Cats have been footy\u2019s bank cheque for a long time. And there is sometimes an assumption that they\u2019ve cracked the code. But they remain a flawed team. Their midfield can still be got at. Patrick Dangerfield turns 36 next month, Jeremy Cameron is still injured, Tyson Stengle is on leave and Bailey Smith may be more difficult to manage in his second season. Chris Scott teams almost always start the season well. But with key players unavailable, they have a challenging opening month, and will have played four genuine premiership aspirants by Easter.<\/p>\n
Patrick Dangerfield, Chris Scott, Max Holmes, Tom Stewart and Bailey Smith of the Cats. Photograph: Michael Willson\/AFL Photos\/Getty Images8th: GWS<\/p>\n
The Giants were unsettled and at no stage entirely convincing last season. They were always chasing their games. There was no better team at ripping off a sublime half hour of football. But they were often asleep at the post when it mattered. We keep being told that they\u2019re built for finals. And they keep losing finals from winning positions. They\u2019ve played in three or four of the great finals of recent years. But they\u2019ve lost them all. Last year, they didn\u2019t take their opportunities and capitalise on their momentum. Ultimately, Hawthorn was the more trustworthy team.<\/p>\n
And now they\u2019ve lost their best player for the season. Tom Green is the one who does the dirty work, who gets them out into space and moving. Sam Taylor is an enormous loss to that backline. And with Josh Kelly out for the year with what\u2019s being called \u201ca hip resurfacement\u201d, their depth and resolve will be tested. A lot will be expected of Clayton Oliver, picked up for a future third round selection, and hardly a model of rectitude in recent years. But as the documentary they recently released emphasised, this is a resilient group that\u2019s still capable of brilliant football. If Green, who has suffered a serious knee injury at training, was available I\u2019d have them a lot higher.<\/p>\n
A lot rests on the shoulders of Clayton Oliver this season. Photograph: Jason McCawley\/Getty Images7th: Western Bulldogs<\/p>\n
I think many of us love the idea of this team. But they\u2019re a hard team to trust. It\u2019s easy to be seduced by them. It\u2019s easy for everyone involved when they\u2019re dismantling one of their bunny teams under the roof. It\u2019s easy when Sam Darcy is booting eight goals in a kick and giggle (on his own defenders, mind you, which is half the problem). It\u2019s easy to get swept up in the Champion Data ratings.<\/p>\n
But data can tease. Data can lie. Data and ratings are useless during a seven goal run on in 15 minutes, when your defenders are on their heels, pointing their fingers and watching the ball sail over their heads. The fans who watch them every week are the best judges here. They see the same movie play out year after year. They see an occasionally brilliant, often baffling and ultimately frustrating team.<\/p>\n
Buku Khamis and Marcus Bontempelli. Photograph: Dylan Burns\/AAP<\/p>\n
Luke Beveridge spent summer caravanning, song-writing and mapping out orienteering courses. At the Charlie Sutton medal, he spoke about Buddhism, Manfred Mann, and nights out at Hammer Hall with his wife. He spoke about the 14 wins and a table of supporters tentatively applauded. \u201cDon\u2019t clap, \u2018cos that\u2019s mediocrity,\u201d he said. \u201cBut I appreciate the sentiment.\u201d A lot of us appreciate the sentiment when it comes to the Western Bulldogs. We love Marcus Bontempelli. We love the way they attack. We\u2019d love to see them get another flag. If they can learn to defend, they\u2019ll win back a lot of trust and they\u2019re capable of anything.<\/p>\n
The final part of our predicted ladder will be published on Wednesday<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"12th: Melbourne Melbourne recently released a membership video that leaned into the cliches and the disappointment \u2013 one…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":514083,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[560],"tags":[638,64,63,55,639,85],"class_list":["post-514082","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-afl","tag-afl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-australian-football-league","tag-australianfootballleague","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/514082","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=514082"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/514082\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/514083"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=514082"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=514082"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=514082"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}