{"id":515438,"date":"2026-03-03T06:50:17","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T06:50:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/515438\/"},"modified":"2026-03-03T06:50:17","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T06:50:17","slug":"first-home-buyer-surge-raises-negative-equity-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/515438\/","title":{"rendered":"First home buyer surge raises negative equity risks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The recent housing finance data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that over the December quarter of 2025, $19.310 billion in mortgages was lent to first-home buyers. This was an increase of 16% over the prior quarter and the highest value since the first quarter of 2021:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Value-of-first-home-buyer-mortgages.png\" width=\"660\" height=\"560\" alt=\"Value of first home buyer mortgages\"\/><\/p>\n<p>The average size of first-home buyer mortgages also surged by a record 8.3% in the December quarter of 2025 to a record high of $607,500:<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/First-home-buyer-mortgage-increase.png\" width=\"660\" height=\"415\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Value of first home buyer mortgages\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Chart by Greg Jericho (The Guardian)<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>It has been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2026-02-27\/five-pc-home-deposit-scheme-influx\/106136868\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">revealed<\/a> that 22,921 guarantees were issued under the federal government\u2019s 5% mortgage deposit scheme for first-home buyers in the four months since it underwent a major expansion on 1 October 2025.<\/p>\n<p>This represents a 75% rise compared to the previous four-month period between June and September, in which 13,105 guarantees were issued.<\/p>\n<p>Almost two-thirds of properties purchased under the scheme in the four months since October were houses, while under-30s make up two-fifths of those who have benefited from the scheme in that time.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina told The ABC that the figures from the past four months represented a \u201cmassive jump\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe know that incentives really matter in the housing market\u201d, she said.\u00a0\u201cWhenever we get some sort of grants or discounts, we always see a big take-up of these things\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>The demographic breakdown shows the scheme is being used mostly by groups already relatively advantaged, namely:<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>Under\u201130s make up 40% of participants. Regional buyers account for almost 30% (10,700 people). Houses (not units) make up nearly two\u2011thirds of purchases. Key workers represent 18%. Single parents have a relatively low uptake. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t think this scheme is good overall because it\u2019s just another demand-side policy, which increases prices over the long term\u2014that\u2019s fundamentally the flaw with it\u201d, Mousina said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe haven\u2019t seen a commensurate increase in supply. We have more people wanting to get into the market but supply hasn\u2019t really moved in line with demand\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat\u2019s why it\u2019s just going to add to price pressures\u201d, she said.<\/p>\n<p>According to the ABS, the average loan size to first home buyers was $607,500 as of the December quarter of 2025:<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Minimum-FHB-mortgage-repayments.png\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>This means that the 0.25% rate hike delivered last month by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) added $96 to the average monthly cost of a new first-home buyer mortgage.<\/p>\n<p>The interest rate futures market expects the RBA to raise the cash rate again in May, with a very high probability of another hike before the end of 2026.<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RBA-rate-Tracker.png\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>Should the RBA raise the official cash rate two more times to 4.35% (the previous peak level), it would add a cumulative $291 to the monthly servicing cost of the average first-home buyer mortgage.<\/p>\n<p>Recent borrowers who extended themselves using the 5% deposit scheme face extreme mortgage stress and the possibility of falling into negative equity if the housing market experiences a significant price correction, as appears to be likely in Sydney and Melbourne:<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>Mortgage delinquencies also expose Australian taxpayers to possible losses.<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, first home buyers have been drawn into the market at a potentially pivotal point. Many could end up as collateral damage in the RBA\u2019s struggle to keep inflation under control.<\/p>\n<p>They will be urgently hoping that the financial markets are wrong and that the RBA does not continue to tighten interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>If you want to save thousands of dollars on mortgage payments, use the MB Compare n Save <a href=\"https:\/\/mb.comparensave.com.au\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">mortgage comparison tool<\/a>. It\u2019s quick and easy.<\/p>\n<p>If you decide to <a href=\"https:\/\/mb.comparensave.com.au\/product\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">refinance<\/a>, Compare n Save will handle the transaction.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The recent housing finance data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that over the December quarter&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":515439,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,164],"class_list":["post-515438","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/515438","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=515438"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/515438\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/515439"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=515438"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=515438"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=515438"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}