Gold jumped at the weekly open due to uncertainty around the Iran war but that quickly gave way to profit taking and it sagged down to $5300. Then a second and third wave of bids arrived in Europe and the US leading to a session high of $5419 before selling into the US close and a drop to $5260.<\/p>\n
In Asian trading today, bids returned but in the past few minutes, that’s been met by aggressive sellers. <\/p>\n
Gold 5 mins<\/p>\n
Like everyone, the gold market is trying to figure out where the Iran war leads. <\/p>\n
For US adversaries, there is already one lesson: it’s not safe to be a leader. We saw strong bids in gold after the capture of Venezuela’s Maduro and the post-war price action mirrors that. At the same time, here are macro effects in play with higher oil prices potentially leading to inflation. That has boosted Treasury yields in a move that’s been attracting USD bids.<\/p>\n
In truth, no one knows how it will play out in Iran in both the long and short term. It’s more chaotic at the moment but there’s such a wide range of plausible outcomes that reflect what we’ve seen in American wars before: Iraq, Venezuela, Libya, Afghanistan. If Iran descends into chaos it’s not necessarily bad for regional stability so there’s a scenario where it’s ‘so bad that it’s good’ which isn’t really positive for gold.<\/p>\n
There are also scenarios where the US gets dragged (now or later) into another endless and costly war.<\/p>\n
On the margin, war always creates tail risks and those are generally gold positive so I lean in that direction. I’d expect high volatility to continue. Gold was last up $13 to $5340 and silver is back negative at $88.40 after touching a high of $91.33 and hour ago.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Gold jumped at the weekly open due to uncertainty around the Iran war but that quickly gave way…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":516094,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[64,63,99],"class_list":{"0":"post-516093","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-business"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/516093","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=516093"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/516093\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/516094"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=516093"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=516093"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=516093"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}