{"id":518145,"date":"2026-03-04T13:00:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T13:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/518145\/"},"modified":"2026-03-04T13:00:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T13:00:08","slug":"forecasting-a-potential-serena-williams-comeback","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/518145\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasting a Potential Serena Williams Comeback"},"content":{"rendered":"<p id=\"inline-text-0\" class=\"mt-[18px] md:mt-0 mb-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"6u\">Hey everyone \u2026<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-1\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"6x\">\u2022 Here\u2019s the latest Served podcast:<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-3\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"74\">\u2022 Happy Indian Wells Day, to those who celebrate\u2026.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-4\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"77\">\u2022 Daniil Medvedev won the Dubai title, the 23rd of his estimable career. Which is good for him, but bad for one of tennis\u2019s great statistical quirks. (No longer has he failed to win a title more than once.) More seriously, at this writing, he\u2014and others\u2014are still trying to get out of Dubai, after Iran\u2019s attack on the UAE. Next week we can talk more about the increasingly busy intersection of tennis and geopolitics.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-5\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"7a\">\u2022 AI is coming for us all. We have all seen the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/reels\/DU-od_jjKBh\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Tennis Simpsons<\/a>, yes?<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-6\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"7d\">\u2022 Give Jarvis Landry his props:<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-8\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"7k\">\u2022 Felix Auger-Aliassime stopped by for a Q&amp;A\u2014we\u2019ll post soon.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-9\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"7n\">Onward\u2026.<\/p>\n<p>Serena Williams\u2019s comeback tour<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-11\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"7t\">\u2022 Make of this what you will, but the most popular tennis chatter lately seems to be <a href=\"https:\/\/www.si.com\/tennis\/tennis-mailbag-what-a-potential-serena-williams-comeback-could-look-like\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Serena Williams\u2019s potential comeback<\/a>. She did not put in for an Indian Wells wild card as some suspected. Wise choice. The conditions are so variable, it\u2019s a rough place to launch a return (Miami, on the other hand\u2026). Let\u2019s do this omnibus and try to incorporate as much as possible.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-12\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"7w\">Top line: There is only upside here. Serena could reconsider this dalliance tomorrow, return to her full life post-tennis, and it was a fun jag. And the attention\/serious treatment it received at age 44 says plenty about not just her popularity but her formidability. Other end of the spectrum: this could be the Tennis Story of the\u00a0Year. This could be something in between. Either way, it\u2019s welcome, it should be applauded, it makes such a strong statement, not least to her kids.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-13\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"7z\">Truth serum: I have mixed feelings here about the rollout. It\u2019s a little \u2026 what? Unseemly is too harsh\u2026but manipulative? These <a href=\"https:\/\/www.si.com\/tennis\/serena-williams-wont-give-firm-answer-to-comeback-rumors\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">non-denial denials<\/a>*. These cryptic posts. This double-speak. And yet:<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s Serena\u2019s news to break how and when she wants. She owes the world no explanation, no roadmap and no itinerary.If nothing else, this is very much on-brand. A contemporary of hers reminded me that at the 2022 Canadian Open, she was asked about a retirement rumor. She flatly denied it. (Wildfire!) A day later, her retirement announcement dropped in Vogue.The parlor game is kinda fun and the speculation has captured so many in the Republic of Tennis, including current and former players.\u00a0I realize this is the inverse, but if this is like so many retirement decisions, so often the athletes themselves don\u2019t truly know from one day to the next.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-18\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"8e\">Here\u2019s what I would say:<\/p>\n<p>Unless you\u2019re fond of strangers waking you at 6 a.m. and then providing them with urine, you don\u2019t put yourself in the doping protocols unless you really want to return. I made this point the other day on Tennis Channel and the mighty Andrea Petkovic raised me: You don\u2019t\u00a0put yourself in doping protocols unless you really want to return to play singles.Often as we gripe about the anti-competitive ickiness of wild cards, this is the precise situation for which they are deserved. Serena should be able to get automatic slots when she\u2019s in her 60s. Point being: she can play whenever and wherever she pleases.I\u2019ve heard multiple times that one of the factors here is unfinished business at Wimbledon. She didn\u2019t like how\u2014as a seven-time champ\u2014she closed out her tenure at SW19. Visibly out of shape, she lost 7\u20136 in the third set to Harmony Tan of France. If part of this comeback is motivated by a desire to return to Wimbledon and a belief that grass gives her the best chances of success\u2014a reasonable supposition\u2014does she bother playing anything on clay?The U.S. Open mixed (and possibly doubles with Venus?) seems like an obvious tour stop.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-23\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"8t\">*: Savannah Guthrie is beloved. I can\u2019t think of someone in the notoriously competitive world of day-time television who is more well-regarded. From producers to pages, literally everyone speaks glowingly of her. What she is going through is almost unendurably awful. How strange that just a week or so before this tragedy, she was making news in tennis.<\/p>\n<p>Q&amp;A<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-25\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"8z\">Hey Jon,<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-26\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"92\">I saw your tweet that Served will not be affected by Andy\u2019s new deal at ESPN. Is there any association between the pod and ESPN at all now? Or are they completely separate?<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-27\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"95\">Thanks.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-28\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"98\">Brendon K.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-29\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"9b\">\u2022 Thanks. If you missed it last week, Andy will be heading to ESPN for Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, starting this summer. Speaking of\/for Andy, we\u2019re all really gratified by the response w\/r\/t Served. Yes, to be clear, they are completely separate. Served will continue as planned. This is a win-win.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-30\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"9e\">Jon, are you the guy who wants equal prize money, but doesn\u2019t want women to play best-of-five sets? Is that you?<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-31\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"9h\">Carlos<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-32\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"9k\">\u2022 New phone, who dis? Ah, the old chestnut, given new life after Craig Tiley\u2019s remarks a few months back. I hate this discussion. But I recognize it\u2019s a hot-button topic out there. I\u2019ll cop to your allegation. Yes, I want equal prize money. Yes, I\u2019m okay with the different set format. At a time of increased physicality\u2014and decreased audience attention spans\u2014I want shorter matches, not longer ones. No one attended the Australian Open women\u2019s final\u2014a match lasting longer than the average EPL, NBA or baseball match\/game\u2014and said, \u201cWhat a rip-off. I demand another set or two!\u201d If the male players\u2014acting contrary to their rational interests; odd, especially in this age of load management\u2014want to do the gladiatorial best-of-five thing, I say let them. But why should this set wage precedent? (And if the women said, \u201cHell, we\u2019ll play best-of-seven,\u201d should they then be paid more?\u201d)<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-33\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"9n\">We needed a ballot to measure either to a) put to rest the tired best-of-five vs. equal pay false dichotomy or b) start charging everywhere for duration, so we see how absurd this argument is. A game goes to overtime and there\u2019s a surcharge. We take Apple Pay. Movies are priced according to run time. Meals are priced solely on how long they took to prepare. Uber rates are pegged to the duration of the ride.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/01kjv4p532zs0k5sg4ph.jpg\" alt=\"Tennis star Carlos Alcaraz\" title=\"Tennis star Carlos Alcaraz\" width=\"5015\" height=\"2820\" class=\"undefined w-full w-full blur-[5px]\" q:id=\"9x\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Alcaraz completed the career Grand Slam by knocking off Novak Djokovic in this year&#8217;s Australian Open final. | Mike Frey-Imagn Images<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-35\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"a1\">Can we just declare Carlos Alcaraz the SMOAT?\u00a0Shot Maker Of All Time?\u00a0<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-36\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"a4\">He&#8217;s gone to a level which just hasn&#8217;t been seen before&#8230;<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-37\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"a7\">What\u2019s more astonishing is&#8230;unlike Sinner or Federer or Nadal who want to dominate from shot No. 1 and win, Alcaraz starts at Djokovic mode where he&#8217;s dancing with you to see what you bring to the court, then adapts,\u00a0 then goes into Fedal mode, then Carlitos mode&#8230;where he&#8217;ll actually create something ridiculous off of what you throw at him!! Like a chef catching all ingredients thrown at him in the kitchen, and dishing out tasty plates on the fly!! That&#8217;s SMOAT level stuff! Go Chef Carlos!<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-38\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"aa\">Cheers, VJ<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-39\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"ad\">\u2022 When SMOAT enters the sports lexicon, let it be known that VJ gets credit. Same for Chef Carlos. That\u2019s a strong analogy. It\u2019s not just shotmaking on the fly; it\u2019s the variety. Sometimes it\u2019s the backspin-drizzled drop shot. Sometimes it\u2019s the running forehand. Backhand overheads. That angled backhand flick. Right now, this is tennis at its most elevated.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-40\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"ag\">Hi Jon! Huge fan of your work with SI and the Served podcast. Always look forward to both especially around the Slams. I have a question that I would love for you to dive into: How did the Russian Tennis Federation miss on their scouting of Elena Rybakina so badly? It seems shocking to me that they let a prospect like that walk, especially one that, as Andy put it, is a \u201cNo. 1 draft pick.\u201d It seems like she had solid junior results, so I\u2019m just curious if you have any insights into what was going on between the Russian Tennis Federation and Rybakina when she decided to switch to Kazakhstan? Thanks so much! Keep up the great work!<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-41\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"aj\">Oliver K.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-42\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"am\">\u2022 Great question. I spoke to someone from Kazakhstan in Australia and, quite reasonably, they take credit for their talent evaluation. But who was Nico Harrison here? At some level this was clearly financial. If Russia says, \u201cWe\u2019ll contribute X to your training and development\u201d and Kazakhstan says, \u201cWe\u2019ll make that 3x,\u201d then this is more about balance sheets and negotiations than good and bad eyes for spotting talent.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-43\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"ap\">Tangential point I heard raised in Australia: Last year Daria Kasatkina\u2014openly uncomfortable about competing as a representative of Putin\u2019s Russia\u2014changed her nationality to Australia. Tennis Australia helped facilitate this under Craig Tiley. Now that he is with the USTA, will the U.S. be more aggressive in effectively recruiting talent? Or at least give sanctuary and support to players who might wish to represent a different country?\u00a0 There is, of course, a rich history in tennis of players switching countries. And so many players from all over have bases in the U.S.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-44\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"as\">Jon, I was watching Tennis Channel the other day and kept thinking I was seeing the same match again and again. The players played the same. Big serves and big forehands. Good but not great backhands. Only coming to the net when they had to. It was hard to tell players apart based on strokes. I know you have spoken about this, but sometimes they even wore the same outfit. Don\u2019t worry! I still love tennis! But where oh where has the variety done?<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-45\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"av\">Enrique, CHI<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-46\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"ay\">\u2022 In the words of Arnold Drummond, Willis and Kimberly: It takes Diff\u2019rent Strokes*. Or does it? I understand the visceral desire for variety\u2014in all sorts of contexts. But I never quite get this complaint in tennis\/sports. Athletes play to win, not to be aesthetically pleasing or make a contribution to variance of style. If serving-and-volleying isn\u2019t in service of winning, it doesn\u2019t make sense to serve-and-volley. No matter how deeply it appeals to the salon. Same for the one-handed backhand. (Though note Lilli Tagger\u2019s wild card into Indian Wells!) And Steffi Graf-like slicing. And topspin lobs. And underarm serving\u2026.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-47\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"b1\">Ideally, all this uniformity creates a sort of arbitrage opportunity, an incentive to zig where others zag. Homogenization creates the opportunity to disrupt and differentiate. It\u2019s Nadal bringing a biting never-seen-before lefty serve-and-forehand combo. It\u2019s Alcaraz weaponizing the drop shot. It\u2019s Monica Seles slugging with two hands on both sides. It\u2019s my man, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/watch\/?v=1051606890456139\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>, using a different hand on both sides.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-48\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"b4\">But we\u2019re not talking about artists or writers or musicians here. There is a scoreboard that is the ultimate arbiter of success. If playing like everyone else gives you the best chance of posting the largest integers in the scoreboard, you\u2019re almost duty-bound to go with that.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-49\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"b7\">*: Can we discuss the elided \u201cE\u201d in the title. Was that really necessary? Is it really a nod to urban cred to pronounce \u201cdifferent\u201d as a two-syllable word? Did someone in the writers\u2019 room really think: People might be confused that they\u2019re all Upper East Siders, but let\u2019s go with \u201cdiff\u2019rent\u201d and THEN they\u2019ll get the whole fish-out-of-water conceit.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-50\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"ba\">Hi Jon,<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-51\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"bd\">When Novak Djokovic won his first gold medal in his fifth Olympic games, I thought, \u201cWell, that&#8217;s a feat we\u2019ll never see repeated.&#8221; Then <a href=\"https:\/\/www.si.com\/winter-olympics\/elana-meyers-taylor-team-usa-most-heartfelt-story-bobsled\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">this happened<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-52\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"bg\">Cheers, Ted Cornwell, Minneapolis<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-53\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"bj\">\u2022 I\u2019ll stick with Djokovic as the more impressive feat. But point taken.<\/p>\n<p id=\"inline-text-54\" class=\"my-[18px] [&amp;_a]:text-primary my-f-1.5\" q:key=\"0\" q:id=\"bm\">HAVE A GOOD WEEK, EVERYONE!<\/p>\n<p>More Tennis on Sports Illustrated<script async src=\"\/\/www.instagram.com\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Hey everyone \u2026 \u2022 Here\u2019s the latest Served podcast: \u2022 Happy Indian Wells Day, to those who celebrate\u2026.&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":518146,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[565],"tags":[64,63,85,747],"class_list":["post-518145","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-tennis","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-sports","tag-tennis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/518145","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=518145"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/518145\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/518146"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=518145"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=518145"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=518145"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}