{"id":524936,"date":"2026-03-07T15:52:07","date_gmt":"2026-03-07T15:52:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/524936\/"},"modified":"2026-03-07T15:52:07","modified_gmt":"2026-03-07T15:52:07","slug":"afc-win-totals-odds-leans-predictions-for-nfl-season-ahead-of-free-agency","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/524936\/","title":{"rendered":"AFC win totals: Odds, leans, predictions for NFL season ahead of free agency"},"content":{"rendered":"

Just 10 years ago, you couldn’t find NFL<\/a> win totals anywhere until late in the summer, much closer to the start of the regular season. We now get them in February. We’re going to check in on all the offerings DraftKings<\/a> has in the market, first with the NFC and then now with the AFC.\u00a0<\/p>\n

These will change dramatically thanks to three factors: free agency, the draft and the actual release of the 2026 NFL schedule<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

And it’s extremely early, even with the knowledge of those three things, to be betting on these if you don’t have supreme confidence in a particular number, especially if you’re betting on Overs. Injuries are going to happen in the offseason, so be cautious with that knowledge as well. We want to be early on a team, but not too early if the number is too high.<\/p>\n

We’ll be checking back in on these after the schedule release, as well as before the start of the season in various forms, but the goal is to identify some early looks that might result in some good closing line value in a few weeks by identifying potential movers in free agency.\u00a0<\/p>\n

More than likely there will just be a couple of bets below, with plenty of leans.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bet on NFL win totals and more at DraftKings:<\/a><\/p>\n

Baltimore Ravens<\/p>\n

Over 10.5 (-145) \/ Under (+120)<\/p>\n

For the first time in a long time, there’s a head coaching change to consider with the Ravens<\/a>. John Harbaugh is out and Jesse Minter is in. The Harbaughs and Michigan and their defensive coordinators are kind of a wild ride, but essentially the Ravens are hoping Minter becomes their version of Mike McDaniel, who they let get away only to see him win a Super Bowl<\/a> with the Seahawks<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Baltimore just traded for Maxx Crosby<\/a>, which will help their defense in a big way. But this total will ultimately come down to whether Lamar Jackson<\/a> plays at an MVP level. It’s easy to be optimistic: DeClan Doyle, who was hand-picked by Ben Johnson<\/a> off Sean Payton’s staff for the Bears<\/a> offensive coordinator gig last year, takes over as OC under Minter. I’m expecting fireworks from Jackson this year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Ravens draw the Chargers\/Cowboys\/Bills as second-place schedule markers, which is brutal, but the AFC South and NFC South on the dance card this season makes this a very attractive Over look if the coaching staff is a wholesale upgrade. A Crosby deal probably bumps this to 11.5, where I’d probably be more interested (12-5 is easily doable if Lamar is healthy) closer to the season.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Verdict: Over is good but wait and get better juice later in the offseason<\/p>\n

Buffalo Bills<\/p>\n

Over 10.5 (-145) \/ Under (+120)<\/p>\n

Another high-profile team that made high-profile changes, the Bills<\/a> have had a weird offseason already. They fired Sean McDermott while blaming the coaching staff for drafting Keon Coleman<\/a> and then hired … someone from the coaching staff in Joe Brady to run things. OK! Trading for D.J. Moore makes a lot of sense (and moved this Over price up 25 cents), but trading a second-round pick for him and his contract sure doesn’t.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Offensively, this team should be upgraded with Moore. And we don’t care about the cost of the trade for a win total bet. But I definitely have questions about how this team will look on defense without McDermott running things. Jim Leonhard<\/a> was a nice pull this offseason by Brady, but the personnel is lacking for this to be an elite unit.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Bills get the Texans<\/a>, Rams<\/a> and Ravens as second-place matchups, plus the AFC West and NFC North. That probably gives them a five-free-win floor built into the schedule. Which means you have to bet on Josh Allen<\/a> going 5-7 in his other games if you want to take this Under. No thanks!\u00a0<\/p>\n

Verdict: Over is the only look but too pricey with the changes at this stage<\/p>\n

Cincinnati Bengals<\/p>\n

Over 9.5 (-115) \/ Under (-105)<\/p>\n

The quintessential “don’t bet their Over in March” team, the Bengals<\/a> are hoping to bounce back from yet another disappointing season in the Joe Burrow<\/a> Era. Problem is, they haven’t fixed much. Burrow is healthy now, having returned last season for a playoff push, but given all his offseason injuries you’d be crazy to bet Cincy’s Over right now.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That’s also why it’s installed as a 9.5 win total. That and the defensive issues: Trey Hendrickson<\/a> is going to be gone, so Cincy will be shorthanded on that side of the ball once again after Al Golden failed to provide any sort of upgrade from Lou Anarumo in his first year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Getting a third-place matchup against Patrick Mahomes<\/a> is a brutal beat, even if the Dolphins<\/a> and Commanders<\/a> are OK matchups. The AFC South and NFC South are good divisional scheduling breaks, and I would lean to the Over here but you couldn’t pay me to bet it until we’re closer to the season.<\/p>\n

Verdict: Lean Over but the defense and Burrow medical history are red flags<\/p>\n

Cleveland Browns<\/p>\n

Over 6.5 (+105) \/ Under 6.5 (-125)<\/p>\n

The Browns<\/a> rebooted the entire coaching staff this offseason and bring in Todd Monken, who gets to run an offense that will feature “Pro Bowl” quarterback Shedeur Sanders<\/a> under center … we think. Monken is a great offensive mind, but he’s definitely operating behind the 8 ball on this one with what the Browns have for weapons.<\/p>\n

Defensively, Myles Garrett<\/a> is always a threat to make trouble on any given week and the Browns should be pretty good on that side of the ball, but the resignation of Jim Schwartz has to be a red flag.<\/p>\n

So why exactly are they getting 6.5-win love from Vegas? Let’s look at the schedule! The Jets<\/a>, Giants<\/a> and Raiders<\/a> is about as favorable a standings matchup as you can draw, the Steelers<\/a> might not be great this year and the Browns get the AFC South and NFC South. Still, given the new coaching staff and the roster, it’s a pretty easy pick here.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Verdict: Bet the Browns Under 6.5<\/p>\n

Bet the Under on the Browns at DraftKings:<\/a><\/p>\n

Denver Broncos<\/p>\n

Over 9.5 (-110) \/ Under 9.5 (-110)<\/p>\n

This past year was an incredible season for Sean Payton and Bo Nix<\/a>, even if the ending was rough because of an injury to the latter and it felt like a large portion of their wins came in miraculous fashion. Now Payton needs the offense, with hot-candidate name Davis Webb<\/a> calling plays, to take a step forward in Nix’s third year. We’ll see how well that works, but it’s not unreasonable for Nix to level out and take a leap in Year 3.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Defensively, this is a sick unit that should keep the Broncos<\/a> in just about every game, particularly if they get a full season out of Patrick Surtain.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Getting the Jags, Panthers<\/a> and Steelers as first-place matchups while drawing the AFC East should boost their ability to get double-digit wins, even if the NFC West is a bear to play against.<\/p>\n

Verdict: Bet the Broncos Over 9.5<\/p>\n

Houston Texans<\/p>\n

Over 9.5 (-115) \/ Under 9.5 (-105)<\/p>\n

It’s hard to classify the 2025 Texans season, which featured a playoff berth but not a lot of offensive success. Things got so bad there were trade rumors involving C.J. Stroud<\/a> leading into the offseason.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Any team with DeMeco Ryans<\/a> is going to be great defensively, in my opinion, but unless the offensive line can take a step forward, it’s difficult to imagine the Texans becoming some high-flying machine, not that they necessarily want to operate like that — adding David Montgomery<\/a> via trade only solidifies their interest in pounding the football.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Packers<\/a>, Bills and Chargers<\/a> are brutal matchups to pull if you don’t win your division and although the NFC East and AFC North are middle of the road division matchups combined, I’m a little hesitant about backing the Texans if I can’t be sure they’ll have a historically great defense again.<\/p>\n

Verdict: Strong lean to the Under, want to wait and see<\/p>\n

Bet on NFL win totals at Fanduel, where new users get $100 if their first bet wins:<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Indianapolis Colts<\/p>\n

Over 8.5 (+100) \/ Under 8.5 (-120)<\/p>\n

The Colts<\/a> were the story of the first half of the 2025 NFL season, with Daniel Jones<\/a> and Jonathan Taylor<\/a> leading the way. They were the story of the end of the season, but only because Philip Rivers<\/a> had to come out of retirement to try and save their playoff hopes. It didn’t work, and now we’re left to wonder what happens at quarterback this year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The win-total number reflects that, with the Colts 8.5 juiced to the Under as we wait and see what happens with them under center.\u00a0<\/p>\n

At this point, it would be foolish to speculate on an Over here, and taking the Under could certainly backfire if Jones is healthy or they’re able to upgrade at the position.<\/p>\n

Verdict: Hard pass until the QB situation is clarified<\/p>\n

Jacksonville Jaguars<\/p>\n

Over 9.5 (+100) \/ Under 9.5 (-120)<\/p>\n

The Jaguars<\/a> benefited big time from the Colts’ meltdown, swooping in to win the division as Trevor Lawrence<\/a> played the best football of his career in the second half of last year. Travis Etienne<\/a> is likely out the door, and his success last year was huge for the offense. We’ll wait and see what they do with Brian Thomas, Jr.; it seems insane to me they’d even consider trading him.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Turnovers drove the defense, and maybe we get some regression on that front in 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Bears, Broncos and Patriots<\/a> are a fun trio of first-place team for the Jaguars to play, considering all three are kind of breakout candidates of their own, not that they’ll be easy matchups. The AFC North and NFC East give Jacksonville some good looks at wins, and considering Lawrence could take another step in year two with Liam Cohen, I’m inclined to think Jacksonville is a touch under-priced.<\/p>\n

Verdict: Strong lean to the Over<\/p>\n

Kansas City Chiefs<\/p>\n

Over 10.5 (-105) \/ Under 10.5 (-115)<\/p>\n

Last year was a nightmare for Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, the latter of whom suffered the first serious injury of his career and missed the last few games. I’d fully expect Mahomes, because of the way he’s healed in the past, to be ready for the start of the season.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But the Chiefs<\/a> have bigger issues: they need to figure out who is going to be the next alpha pass catcher for them as Travis Kelce<\/a> continues his swan song. There are also concerns along the offensive line.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trading Trent McDuffie<\/a> makes sense as the Chiefs attempt to reload on young, cheaper talent, but it also makes life more difficult when it comes to their defensive production. The Falcons<\/a>, Bengals and Colts are all mystery boxes this year but the NFC West is a gauntlet and the AFC East has plenty of land mines. Still, I’d be inclined to take a cheap Over on a Reid and Mahomes bounceback but I’d wait and see if the price gets better.<\/p>\n

Verdict: Lean Over, want to get a better number\/juice if possible<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Chargers<\/p>\n

Over 10.5 (+110) \/ Under 10.5 (-130)<\/p>\n

The hype around the Chargers will once again be significant, with the Bolts adding Mike McDaniel as their offensive coordinator to replace Greg Roman and the expectation being they’ll take a big step forward on that side of the ball. They probably will, but it likely comes down to the health of Joe Alt<\/a> and Rashawn Slater<\/a>. If they have both tackles and McDaniel cooking, watch out for a huge Justin Herbert<\/a> season.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Losing Jesse Minter is a big blow, although I trust Jim Harbaugh implicitly when it comes to hiring defensive coordinators. He hasn’t missed much.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Ravens, Texans and Bucs are a tough pull for a second-place draw but not unreasonable. The NFC West, as we’ve noted, is hard. The AFC East should offer a couple of wins at least. I’d want to back the Chargers on the Over here, but I don’t think it’ll get much more expensive and I’d like to see how they come into camp from a health perspective.<\/p>\n

Verdict: Lean Over but definitely wait\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bet on NFL win totals and more futures at DraftKings:<\/a><\/p>\n

Las Vegas Raiders<\/p>\n

Over 5.5 (+120) \/ Under 5.5 (-145)<\/p>\n

The expectations are low for a Raiders team that is likely to draft Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick thanks to a season that was somehow much worse than anyone expected in Pete Carroll’s single year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Maxx Crosby has been traded, which means the expectations might be completely founded. But NFL teams<\/a> stumble into five wins in a season all the time. If Klint Kubiak can work his magic with Mendoza and Ashton Jeanty<\/a> in an offensive system that could boost the offensive line production, maybe we get a decently frisky Raiders team??<\/p>\n

The AFC West is a brutal gauntlet, but the Raiders also get to play the Jets, Browns, Titans<\/a>, Saints<\/a> and Dolphins, They can steal a couple of wins, maybe…\u00a0<\/p>\n

Verdict: Kind of want to wait for a stinky Over 4.5<\/p>\n

Miami Dolphins<\/p>\n

Over 4.5 (-110) \/ Under 4.5 (-110)<\/p>\n

The lowest win total for any NFL team, the Dolphins are rebooting it across the board. They have a new GM, a new coach, someone other than Tua under center and they have already moved on from Tyreek Hill<\/a>, as expected.\u00a0<\/p>\n

There is a very good case to be made it’s the worst team in football, even if Jeff Hafley is a good coach. I’m not super enticed with what Bobby Slowik will do with this offense, although he could definitely feed the heck out of De’Von Achane<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Miami moved on from a lot of defensive players as well this offseason, making this a full-scale rebuild.<\/p>\n

Verdict: Currently hard to get on board with this Over<\/p>\n

New England Patriots<\/p>\n

Over 9.5 (-140) \/ Under 9.5 (+115)<\/p>\n

The defending AFC champions come into 2026 feeling great about what they just did … but also with a bit of skepticism. The Patriots dominated last year thanks in large part to an extremely easy schedule, although you can only beat who you play. Drake Maye<\/a> is the real deal, and they should be aggressive about trying to get him a true No. 1 weapon after moving on from Stefon Diggs<\/a>. They’re rightfully one of the favorites to potentially land A.J. Brown<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Mike Vrabel teams are going to play great defense, so I don’t expect any kind of major dropoff from them on that side of the ball. If anything, I think the Pats could improve as an overall unit. Vrabel has a great vision for what he wants from his defense and they mirror that.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The schedule is much tougher — they won the division and get three No. 1 seeds in the Seahawks, Bears and Steelers as a result, although that could be much worse. The AFC West and NFC North don’t offer many free wins, but I’m surprised this number is below 10. I don’t think they have that big a dropoff.<\/p>\n

Verdict: Would bet the Over, think it absolutely gets to 10.5 if they trade for a WR<\/p>\n

New York Jets<\/p>\n

Over 5.5 (+105) \/ Under 5.5 (-125)<\/p>\n

Well that wasn’t very good was it? The Jets’ “plan” with Justin Fields<\/a> worked out as expected. And their big move this offseason, after dumping a bunch of players midseason, has been to franchise tag a running back. Not sure I love it. The quarterback situation is a complete unknown and unless they land Kyler Murray<\/a>, it’s kind of hard to see them ending in a huge upgrade.<\/p>\n

The defense has to be better, right? They didn’t intercept a single pass last year. But they also traded away a ton of players and are clearly rebuilding for the future. So they’re gonna be young for a while.\u00a0<\/p>\n

I think it’s Under or bust for the Jets right now, and good luck finding someone who disagrees.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Verdict: Would only play Under at the moment<\/p>\n

Bet the Over on New England at Fanduel:<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Steelers\u00a0<\/p>\n

Over 8.5 (+120) \/ Under 8.5 (-145)<\/p>\n

We know Mike McCarthy will be the coach, but we still don’t know who the quarterback will be in Pittsburgh, although it seems fairly reasonable that Aaron Rodgers<\/a> will come back and play one year for his old Green Bay coach. If he does, the Steelers are a lot more intriguing from a floor perspective, although long-term it’s definitely tough to suss out how this will work.\u00a0<\/p>\n

There’s plenty of talent defensively for this team to be in the mix, assuming Patrick Graham works out as a coordinator. McCarthy’s teams in his last stop with Dallas were hit or miss almost entirely on the DC.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A first-place schedule that includes the Broncos, Eagles<\/a> and Patriots is brutal. Getting the AFC South and NFC South helps a lot. But you’d be crazy to back this over without knowledge of the QB situation. This is probably a stayaway for me no matter what.<\/p>\n

Verdict: Monitor and pounce on the Over when Rodgers signs if you like it<\/p>\n

Tennessee Titans<\/p>\n

Over 6.5 (-125) \/ Under 6.5 (+105)<\/p>\n

Expectations are apparently much higher than last year in Tennessee, with the Titans catching a fairly robust total already, one that’s moved up steadily with a strong offseason. Robert Saleh gets the most out of the defenses he coaches, so we should see a better unit on that side of the ball.<\/p>\n

And Cam Ward<\/a> isn’t an MVP sleeper but he’s probably the best longshot, a second-year quarterback with a good OC in Brian Daboll.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Titans pulling the Lions<\/a> as part of a last-place schedule is unfair, but the Raiders and Jets are big helps. The NFC East and AFC South aren’t the worst divisions in the world to play and, quite frankly, the Titans would have won several more games with a competent coaching staff last year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Verdict: Bet Titans Over<\/p>\n

\u00a0Bet on Tennessee to go Over its win total at DraftKings:<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Just 10 years ago, you couldn’t find NFL win totals anywhere until late in the summer, much closer…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":524937,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[559],"tags":[261252,28656,626,1281,1276,64,63,631,261243,22816,615,17469,1261,5377,5372,261242,1257,1248,1252,1238,261246,1277,28660,211904,40815,5382,1256,3055,5374,62708,261244,261251,1243,1255,1246,1237,221247,80738,629,5364,6580,5368,24606,1240,6291,5380,628,1250,261247,3052,1263,16818,1233,16820,1231,1249,1242,1235,261241,593,261240,261248,261245,6584,1260,188077,1241,261249,43812,261250,1254,1244,85,15203,1253,53911,14068,39786,6578,1259,5385,1272],"class_list":{"0":"post-524936","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nfl","8":"tag-49ers-win-total","9":"tag-a-j-brown","10":"tag-aaron-rodgers","11":"tag-ashton-jeanty","12":"tag-atlanta-falcons","13":"tag-au","14":"tag-australia","15":"tag-baltimore-ravens","16":"tag-bears-win-total","17":"tag-ben-johnson","18":"tag-betting","19":"tag-bo-nix","20":"tag-buffalo-bills","21":"tag-c-j-stroud","22":"tag-cam-ward","23":"tag-cardinals-win-total","24":"tag-carolina-panthers","25":"tag-chicago-bears","26":"tag-cincinnati-bengals","27":"tag-cleveland-browns","28":"tag-cowboys-win-total","29":"tag-daniel-jones","30":"tag-david-montgomery","31":"tag-davis-webb","32":"tag-devon-achane","33":"tag-demeco-ryans","34":"tag-denver-broncos","35":"tag-detroit-lions","36":"tag-drake-maye","37":"tag-eagles-win-total","38":"tag-falcons-win-total","39":"tag-giants-win-total","40":"tag-green-bay-packers","41":"tag-houston-texans","42":"tag-indianapolis-colts","43":"tag-jacksonville-jaguars","44":"tag-jim-leonhard","45":"tag-joe-alt","46":"tag-joe-burrow","47":"tag-jonathan-taylor","48":"tag-josh-allen","49":"tag-justin-fields","50":"tag-justin-herbert","51":"tag-kansas-city-chiefs","52":"tag-keon-coleman","53":"tag-kyler-murray","54":"tag-lamar-jackson","55":"tag-las-vegas-raiders","56":"tag-lions-win-total","57":"tag-los-angeles-chargers","58":"tag-los-angeles-rams","59":"tag-maxx-crosby","60":"tag-miami-dolphins","61":"tag-myles-garrett","62":"tag-new-england-patriots","63":"tag-new-orleans-saints","64":"tag-new-york-giants","65":"tag-new-york-jets","66":"tag-nfc-win-totals","67":"tag-nfl","68":"tag-nfl-win-totals","69":"tag-packers-win-total","70":"tag-panthers-win-total","71":"tag-patrick-mahomes","72":"tag-philadelphia-eagles","73":"tag-philip-rivers","74":"tag-pittsburgh-steelers","75":"tag-rams-win-total","76":"tag-rashawn-slater","77":"tag-seahawks-win-total","78":"tag-seattle-seahawks","79":"tag-shedeur-sanders","80":"tag-sports","81":"tag-stefon-diggs","82":"tag-tennessee-titans","83":"tag-travis-etienne","84":"tag-travis-kelce","85":"tag-trent-mcduffie","86":"tag-trevor-lawrence","87":"tag-trey-hendrickson","88":"tag-tyreek-hill","89":"tag-washington-commanders"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/524936","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=524936"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/524936\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/524937"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=524936"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=524936"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=524936"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}