For all of our sakes, let\u2019s hope that Donald Trump\u2019s Operation Epic Fury doesn\u2019t turn into Operation Epic Fail.<\/p>\n
It could still go either way.<\/p>\n
And although I\u2019ve written here before that hope is not a strategy<\/a>, the rapid disintegration of the global order means there\u2019s little else to lean on in this moment.<\/p>\n Last year, in an interview with the New York Times<\/a>, Donald Trump said<\/a> the only constraint to his power as US president was: \u201cMy own morality, my own mind. It\u2019s the only thing that can stop me.\u201d<\/p>\n He added: \u201cI don\u2019t need international law.\u201d<\/p>\n Sign up: AU Breaking News email<\/a><\/p>\n Today, we\u2019re living that quote from the \u201capex opportunist\u201d, as the Liberal MP and SAS veteran Andrew Hastie rightly describes Trump<\/a>, who aims to hoover up global oil supplies (via first Venezuela and now Iran) as much as anything else.<\/p>\n Hastie also says anyone who thinks the global rules-based order still exists is in \u201cfantasyland\u201d.<\/p>\n The attacks on Iran are a vindication of the Canadian prime minister\u2019s viral Davos speech<\/a>, where Mark Carney rightly declared: \u201cNostalgia is not a strategy \u2026 Stop invoking a rules-based international order as though it still functions as advertised.\u201d<\/p>\n We can hardly expect to influence the behaviour of others \u2013 China in relation to Taiwan, for example \u2013 when the world\u2019s biggest democracy is taking a \u201cmight is right\u201d stance.<\/p>\n It\u2019s clear any means of accountability or consistent application of international law is lost. We are in territory not seen this side of the second world war, when structures were built and processes implemented via the 1945 UN charter to mitigate the risk of another global conflict.<\/p>\n We are now seeing just how fragile those systems are.<\/p>\n When I was a foreign correspondent, I witnessed the fragility of societal systems first-hand. Amid disasters, law and order rapidly broke down, and looters emerged as power lines fell and communications were cut. We are seeing this breakdown now on a macro scale, in the global order, with the boundaries broken and the lines of trust breached.<\/p>\n In this, governments such as Australia\u2019s sit precariously as middle powers, aware of the potential need for a big protector like the United States but at risk of following them into a spreading disaster. Carney is right to suggest that such powers should close ranks. What other option is there?<\/p>\n The US has largely had its way so far, but we\u2019re already seeing mission creep, without an exit strategy, if there is a strategy at all.<\/p>\n The potential for unintended consequences is real.<\/p>\n We\u2019re still dealing with the American folly in imposing regime change in Iraq as we grapple with what to do with the Australian families linked to Islamic State fighters<\/a> detained in Syria. Afghanistan, amid economic collapse, is back in Taliban control.<\/p>\n In 2003, the then Labor opposition leader, Simon Crean, declared the Iraq war to be \u201cillegal, unnecessary and unjust\u201d when the Howard government joined the US-led invasion to topple Saddam Hussein.<\/p>\n History, of course, has since shown that war was based on a false premise \u2013 to dismantle weapons of mass destruction that were never found.<\/p>\n As recently as 2023, the current defence minister, Richard Marles, said he would \u201cdefinitely support the position that Simon Crean as our Labor leader took then\u201d<\/a>.<\/p>\n He added: \u201cThe terms on which we engage in armed conflict end up being as significant a set of decisions as any government can make.\u201d<\/p>\n As yet, the government has been careful to point out that Australia is not a party to the US-Israel war on Iran, however, the rapid support shown by Anthony Albanese<\/a> for actions that do not adhere to international law stands in stark contrast to the principles demonstrated by Labor two decades ago.<\/p>\n \u201cWe support the United States acting to prevent Iran<\/a> from obtaining a nuclear weapon and to prevent Iran continuing to threaten international peace and security,\u201d the prime minister said, in a joint statement with Marles and the foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong.<\/p>\n The above statement is not unreasonable and evidently carefully crafted.<\/p>\n The behaviour of the Iranian regime towards its own people \u2013 and others \u2013 is indefensible.<\/p>\n