100 days out from polling day<\/a> to replace the underwhelming Vincent Tarzia \u2013 making her the party\u2019s fourth leader in four years \u2013 Liberals variously describe Hurn as \u201cterrific\u201d, hard-working\u201d and the \u201cfuture of the party\u201d.<\/p>\nBut all accept she is about to lead the Liberals to their heaviest election defeat, worse even than Labor\u2019s landslide loss after the collapse of the state bank in 1991.<\/p>\n
After Newspoll last month showed the SA Liberal primary vote at just 14%, Victorian federal senator, James Paterson, said no person \u201cin their sane mind\u201d would\u2019ve put their hand up to the lead the party.<\/p>\n
\u201cAt the end of the day, she is trying to whip a team that has done nothing for four years \u2013 she has done what she can,\u201d one senior Liberal said.<\/p>\n
The Liberals entered the 2026 campaign with 13 seats, 12 fewer than Marshall won in 2018.<\/p>\n
Hurn is expected to retain her seat of Schubert in the Barossa Valley wine region while the party can bank on keeping the Riverland seat of Chaffey.<\/p>\n
But beyond that, senior party figures struggle to agree on other guaranteed holds \u2013 much less the gains needed to form government \u2013 as the Liberals face a pincer movement from Labor in metropolitan Adelaide and One Nation and independents in the regions.<\/p>\n
Former federal Liberal senator Corey Bernardi is leading One Nation\u2019s South Australian leader. Photograph: Mike Bowers\/The Guardian<\/p>\n
The challenge is a microcosm of the bind the Liberal party finds itself in nationally: Where does it fit \u2013 if at all – in the modern landscape of Australian politics?<\/p>\n
Major party strategists expect One Nation to win two upper house seats but wouldn\u2019t be surprised if it doesn\u2019t win any lower seats, despite several opinion polls putting its primary vote in the 20s.<\/p>\n
The bigger threat to the Liberals in the regions might come from independents, although strategists concede the possible four-cornered contests are near impossible to predict with the uncertainty over how preferences will flow.<\/p>\n
\u2018A disappointment to the people\u2019<\/p>\n
Senior Liberal sources say the looming disaster can be traced back to that triumphant night eight years ago.<\/p>\n
\u201cInstead of building trust with the electorate and investing in advanced campaigning capabilities, ministers simply enjoyed the fruits of high office,\u201d one Liberal said of the Marshall government.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Marshall government was a disappointment to the people. This resulted in significant damage to the Liberal brand. The party has not yet been forgiven by voters.\u201d<\/p>\n
As complacency manifested in Liberal ranks after the 2018 election, Labor used a rare term in opposition to renew and rebuild.<\/p>\n
That included replacing the retiring Weatherill with the 37-year-old Malinauskas, a disciple of right-faction powerbroker Don Farrell who ran the socially conservative shoppies\u2019 union before entering state parliament.<\/p>\n
As other premiers consolidated power during the Covid-19 pandemic, Marshall eventually squandered his political capital by allowing the state\u2019s police and health chiefs to front the response while he alienated Adelaide\u2019s business community.<\/p>\n
At the same time, Malinauskas actively courted the private sector \u2013 a conduit to traditional Liberal voters \u2013 while still running a traditional Labor agenda on health and education.<\/p>\n
Hurn was at the centre of the Marshall regime as the premier\u2019s media director.<\/p>\n
Labor rocketed back to power in one term after winning eight Liberal-held seats at the 2022 election, including several in once-safe conservative seats.<\/p>\n
Behind the scenes, senator Alex Antic was reshaping the division as a flood of new members \u2013 many from local churches \u2013 helped him install hard-right figures in key positions, entrenching his influence and control.<\/p>\n
While the right has established organisational control, the party\u2019s past four parliamentary leaders \u2013 Marshall, David Speirs, Tarzia and now Hurn \u2013 are moderates or centrists.<\/p>\n
One right faction powerbroker argued the party had drifted too far to the left in recent years, creating the vacuum that One Nation was filling.<\/p>\n
The South Australian Liberals needed to \u201chit rock bottom\u201d, they argued, in order to rebuild as a true \u201ccentre-right party\u201d.<\/p>\n
Marshall did not respond to Guardian Australia\u2019s request for comment.<\/p>\n
\u2018Disoriented, outgunned and bewildered\u2019<\/p>\n
Senior Liberal sources believe the party is at serious risk of losing its remaining six seats in Adelaide, including Bragg, if One Nation sufficiently erodes its primary vote.<\/p>\n
Three of its metropolitan seats \u2013 Colton, Morialta and Unley \u2013 are held by well-known retiring MPs, making them even more vulnerable to falling to Labor.<\/p>\n
If the party was wiped out in Adelaide, one Liberal feared the organisation \u201cmay be at risk of total collapse\u201d.<\/p>\n
Other Liberals are less pessimistic, predicting the opposition will end up with 10 or so seats.<\/p>\n
Ryan Liddell, a former chief-of-staff to Bill Shorten who is now based in Adelaide as managing partner of Principle Advisory, said Malinauskas had a rare ability to appeal to one rusted-on Liberal voters.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019s like a heat-seeking missile for the political centre – always bringing the conversation back to the economy,\u201d Liddell said.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou almost feel a bit sorry for the Libs down here. They\u2019re up against a once-in-a-generation talent who\u2019s carving up the centre.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey look to the right and there\u2019s One Nation. They look to the left and they\u2019re left of Labor. They look disoriented, outgunned and bewildered.\u201d<\/p>\n
As Malinaukas has cemented Labor\u2019s stranglehold of the centre ground, the Liberal brand has been tarnished by rolling scandals \u2013 including former leader Spiers\u2019 arrest and conviction on drugs charges.<\/p>\n
\u201cThree leaders in four years with one prosecuted for drug offences. The hard right views of certain federal members, especially on the environment,\u201d one Liberal said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt all adds up to making the party unattractive to voters.\u201d<\/p>\n
The extent of that unattractiveness will be tested on 21 March.<\/p>\n
The verdict will be watched well beyond the borders of South Australia.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The sound of The Killers\u2019 song The Man was blaring at Adelaide\u2019s Hackney hotel as Steven Marshall waded…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":525779,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[64,63,44],"class_list":["post-525778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-australia","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/525778","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=525778"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/525778\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/525779"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=525778"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=525778"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=525778"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}