{"id":533055,"date":"2026-03-11T10:19:14","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T10:19:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/533055\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T10:19:14","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T10:19:14","slug":"asteroid-2024-yr4-will-narrowly-miss-the-moon-new-data-shows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/533055\/","title":{"rendered":"Asteroid 2024 YR4 will narrowly miss the moon, new data shows"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqmvfg000x27qgdfh9dexs@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            The possibility that a huge space rock \u2014 once deemed the riskiest asteroid ever observed \u2014 could hit the moon now appears to be off the table.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46g000d356rpjr6g45u@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Discovered at the end of December 2024, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/07\/25\/science\/asteroid-2024-yr4-potential-lunar-impact\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">asteroid 2024 YR4<\/a> at first seemed a serious threat to Earth, with scientists estimating as much as a 3.1% chance of it impacting our planet on December 22, 2032. A series of observations from ground- and space-based telescopes quickly helped rule that out, but by June 2025, a new concern emerged: a 4.3% chance YR4 would slam into the moon instead.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46g000e356rogqn6iwr@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            While Earth wouldn\u2019t face any significant physical danger if the building-size asteroid struck the moon, researchers suggested that any astronauts or infrastructure on the lunar surface at the time <a href=\"https:\/\/science.nasa.gov\/blogs\/planetary-defense\/2025\/06\/05\/nasas-webb-observations-update-asteroid-2024-yr4s-lunar-impact-odds\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">could be at risk<\/a> \u2014 as could satellites that we depend on to keep vital aspects of life, including navigation and communications, running smoothly.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46g000f356r0f3sr6ui@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Astronomers didn\u2019t expect to get a chance to better assess the risk of a YR4 lunar impact until the asteroid came back into view from Earth\u2019s perspective in 2028. However, Dr. Andy Rivkin, planetary astronomer from the Johns Hopkins University\u2019s Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland, and Julien de Wit, associate professor of planetary science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, spied an opportunity for an earlier glimpse.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46g000g356rbuxg6l5p@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Rivkin and de Wit applied and received approval to use the James Webb Space Telescope, or JWST,  the only observatory with a chance of spotting the asteroid before 2028.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46g000h356risvsbcii@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Their observations, taken on February 18 and 26, improved the certainty of the asteroid\u2019s future position. Rather than colliding with the moon, YR4 will pass it from a relatively close distance of 14,229 miles (22,900 kilometers) \u2014 narrowly ruling out a once-in-a-lifetime lunar impact that humanity would have witnessed.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46g000i356rwrtj207z@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Rivkin and de Wit\u2019s Webb observations were among the faintest ever made of an asteroid, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/science.nasa.gov\/blogs\/planetary-defense\/2026\/03\/05\/new-nasa-asteroid-observations-eliminate-chance-of-2032-lunar-impact\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">NASA<\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.esa.int\/Space_Safety\/Planetary_Defence\/Asteroid_2024_YR4_will_not_impact_the_Moon\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">European Space Agency<\/a> \u2014 and the detections weren\u2019t easy to come by given the narrow window of time to capture them.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46g000j356rz425chle@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            As the most powerful space telescope, Webb is perhaps a natural choice to aid the search for a potentially dangerous asteroid that could impact Earth or the moon. But YR4 presented a challenge.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46g000k356r94hcncs4@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            The researchers had to develop new techniques for using Webb\u2019s instruments to detect the asteroid as a nearly invisible speck amid the vastness of space, and their innovations could help future efforts if another similar threat arises.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46j000m356rexd1ehin@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Scientists have used Webb to observed a multitude of celestial wonders \u2014 many of them on a grand scale \u2014 since the telescope\u2019s first images were released in the summer of 2022. Sprawling galaxies and cosmic structures that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2023\/03\/31\/world\/bill-nye-light-year-scn\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">expand for light-years<\/a> have often been the focus of the observatory\u2019s infrared gaze, but so have distant, faint objects.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46j000n356rsaiy88qg@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            A team led by de Wit demonstrated in December 2024 that Webb was capable of spotting <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-024-08480-z\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">138 new asteroids<\/a> ranging from bus- to stadium-size in the main asteroid belt located between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter that were not observable with ground-based telescopes. The finding showed that Webb could study extremely faint objects in the solar system, de Wit said.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46j000o356r9lnfx4dz@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            When it was time to focus on YR4, de Wit and Rivkin leaned into Webb\u2019s capability as a planetary defense tool \u2014 except the challenge was greater.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46j000p356rmndvxt8p@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            YR4 is about 60 meters (about 200 feet) in diameter and in February was located millions of miles from Webb\u2019s orbit, which for de Wit and Rivkin was like looking for a dust particle against a backdrop of blinking stars.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46j000q356r3qsfze7x@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Previous Webb observations of YR4 had helped to determine the space rock\u2019s size in the spring of 2025. However, the asteroid appeared even fainter through the telescope\u2019s instruments last month, reflecting as much light as a single almond would at the distance of the moon, according to de Wit and Rivkin in a NASA release.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46j000r356rhs0ru5en@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Webb\u2019s sensitivity and stability, as well as its ability to accurately track moving targets, make it an excellent tool for making hours-long observations of YR4, they noted.\n    <\/p>\n<p>       <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/asteroid-2024-yr4.jpg\" alt=\"A green circle marks the observed position of YR4 determined with Webb, versus the red circle indicating an orbit that could have led to a lunar impact.\" class=\"image_large__dam-img image_large__dam-img--loading\" onload=\"this.classList.remove('image_large__dam-img--loading')\" onerror=\"imageLoadError(this)\" height=\"838\" width=\"992\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46j000s356ra7h78gvz@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Capturing images of the faint asteroid against bright stars required a novel approach to using the telescope\u2019s Near-Infrared Camera, which is normally used to study extremely distant galaxies or exoplanets that appear fixed, rather than moving. YR4, on the other hand, moves much more quickly when compared with distant stars.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46j000t356rcll1b229@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Rivkin and de Wit\u2019s team knew they only had a couple of five-hour windows to secure the observations in February due to the slim chances of YR4 appearing just bright enough to be detectable, as well as the restrictions around the direction in which Webb could look without interference from sunlight.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmksx1uy0008356ronws63jd@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Dr. Artem Burdanov, team member and research scientist at the MIT department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, identified the two brief observation windows with the best chances of seeing YR4 with Webb, Rivkin noted.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmktydmr00003b6rsw90y2rg@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            The techniques employed during the observations were a blend of ideas the team developed in advance, as well as those that couldn\u2019t be tested until the data was streaming in during the observations, requiring the astronomers to adapt quickly in the moment, Rivkin said.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46j000u356rsbl7toe5@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cTo observe the asteroid we designed an observing strategy that allowed JWST to track a fast-moving target while still preserving extremely precise astrometry, meaning measurements of the object\u2019s position relative to background stars,\u201d de Wit said.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46j000v356r0dfq9fde@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Carefully timed exposures enabled the team to detect the asteroid, which was 4 billion times fainter than what the naked eye can see and 20 to 30 times fainter than the smallest asteroids detectable with other observatories, de Wit said. The timing also meant that the precisely known position of the stars visible behind YR4 acted like a reference, allowing the astronomers to track the asteroid\u2019s position with extreme accuracy.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkssr5z0004356r2g1vrpie@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Three independent analyses of the observations were made by different members of the team, and despite varying approaches they all agreed very well, Rivkin said.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46j000w356r7xbsugyo@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cIn effect, we adapted an instrument optimized for deep cosmological imaging into a precision tracker for a rapidly moving asteroid, which is quite different from its usual use,\u201d de Wit explained.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46j000x356rhn3r2mf3@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            A paper detailing the observations and techniques will soon be available, he added.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkso6590000356r4ba22bm4@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            The new Webb results are exciting, said Dr. Paul Wiegert, a professor of astronomy and physics at the Western University in London, Ontario, and lead author of <a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2506.11217\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">a paper<\/a> analyzing the potential lunar impact. He was not involved in the observations.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkso95k0002356r3ibnwz62@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cThough a little disappointed not to get to study a large asteroid impact on the Moon, which would have been our first look at this kind of dramatic event, it\u2019s amazing what science and technical know-how can do to help us navigate the future,\u201d Wiegert wrote in an email.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46m000z356rrcg21wx2@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            The team\u2019s observations that the asteroid will pass about 14,229 miles (22,900 kilometers) from the moon, with a margin of error that is plus or minus 497 miles (800 kilometers), may not seem like a large distance, astronomically speaking. However, one of the key factors when assessing the future trajectory of an asteroid is reducing the unknowns of its orbit, de Wit said.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46m0010356r09t8awo3@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Observations improve precision in understanding an asteroid\u2019s position and reduce uncertainties, according to NASA, and the researchers are confident that a lunar impact can be ruled out.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46m0011356rsz1f8kml@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cEvery time we observe an asteroid, we reduce the range of possible trajectories,\u201d de Wit said. \u201cIn this case, the JWST observations both provided very precise positional measurements and significantly extended the time span over which the asteroid has been observed.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p>       <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/2024yr4.gif\" alt=\"This animation shows the uncertainty prior to the new Webb observations versus how close YR4 will actually come to the moon.\" class=\"image_large__dam-img image_large__dam-img--loading\" onload=\"this.classList.remove('image_large__dam-img--loading')\" onerror=\"imageLoadError(this)\" height=\"1152\" width=\"2752\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkt1jbg000c356rsmwe5jjh@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            The absolute distance YR4 will pass from the moon is small compared to the usual miss distances, but it is pretty big when compared with the size of the moon itself, Rivkin said.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkt2naq000f356ra2jgff9x@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cWhile calculations of the close approach distance may shift a little bit closer (or further!) when YR4 is next observed, we expect those shifts will be minimal, within the current margin of error, and will not include a lunar impact as a possibility,\u201d Rivkin wrote in an email.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46n0012356rye9vds6d@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Multiple new space observatories, including the Near-Earth Object Surveyor and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, are in development at NASA, along with the concept of the Habitable World Observatory. Such observatories could be used to spot asteroids or refine their orbits. But defining YR4\u2019s size and orbit have also demonstrated the role that Webb can play in protecting the planet from potentially wayward space rocks.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph-elevate inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph_elevate\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmmkqu46n0013356rtke9iq12@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cIf and when NASA\u2019s planetary defense assets discover another potentially hazardous object of interest, we will know that we could make these measurements in practice, not just in theory, and we have gained important experience in designing and analyzing those measurements,\u201d Rivkin and de Wit noted.\n    <\/p>\n<p data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/editor-note\/instances\/cmmkqqfx90001356rwosa3mec@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"editor-note\" class=\"editor-note-elevate vossi-editor-note_elevate inline-placeholder \" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n    Sign up for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/newsletters\/wonder-theory?source=nl-acq_article\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">CNN\u2019s Wonder Theory science newsletter<\/a>. Explore the universe with news on fascinating discoveries, scientific advancements and more.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The possibility that a huge space rock \u2014 once deemed the riskiest asteroid ever observed \u2014 could hit&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":533056,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[64,63,128,285],"class_list":["post-533055","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-space","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-science","tag-space"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/533055","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=533055"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/533055\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/533056"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=533055"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=533055"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=533055"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}