{"id":535016,"date":"2026-03-12T07:06:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T07:06:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/535016\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T07:06:09","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T07:06:09","slug":"mercedes-favourites-to-win-constructors-championship-ferrari-chances-of-catching-up-lewis-hamilton-says-season-already-over-analysis-latest-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/535016\/","title":{"rendered":"Mercedes favourites to win constructors championship, Ferrari chances of catching up, Lewis Hamilton says season already over, analysis, latest news"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Lewis Hamilton was in good form at the Australian Grand Prix, the seven-time champion starting his follow-up Ferrari season looking refreshed and rejuvenated after a demoralising 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Then he saw the results.<\/p>\n<p>Ferrari had been competitive in the opening phase of the grand prix, with Charles Leclerc trading blows with George Russell for the lead while Hamilton maintained a watching brief from third. Mercedes had dominated qualifying, but in race trim the Italian team looked as feisty as some had suggested during pre-season testing.<\/p>\n<p><img class=\"i-amphtml-fill-content i-amphtml-replaced-content\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/poster-fallback.png\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Fox Sports, available on Kayo Sports, is the only place to watch every practice, qualifying session and race in the 2026 FIA Formula One World Championship\u2122 LIVE in 4K. <a href=\"https:\/\/kayosports.com.au\/?pg=f1&amp;extcamp=fsaeditoriallinkmotorsport-edt-fsp-lnk-awr-grc-mtr-kyo&amp;channel=fsa&amp;campaign=fsacontra&amp;voucher=\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">New to Kayo? Join now and get your first month for just $1.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>But then a virtual safety car set the two teams down different strategy paths. Mercedes picked the right one, allowing Russell and teammate Andrea Kimi Antonelli to cruise to a comfortable one-two finish.<\/p>\n<p>Despite having fresher tyres, Leclerc gained just two seconds on Russell over the last 32 laps of the grand prix. Hamilton fared a little better, reducing his six-second deficit to Leclerc to just 0.6 seconds at the flag, but it wasn\u2019t enough to leave any real impression that he could have caught the Mercedes drivers in different circumstances.<\/p>\n<p>Mercedes and Ferrari were clear at the front of the field, but the German marque had an obvious edge that hadn\u2019t been apparent previously.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t understand it exactly,\u201d Hamilton lamented after the race. \u201cThey didn\u2019t show that they could turn it up in testing, and now they\u2019ve got this extra power from somewhere and we need to understand what that is.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI hope it\u2019s not this compression ratio thing, hopefully it\u2019s just pure power and we\u2019ve got to do a better job.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The compression ratio controversy had barely got a look-in before Hamilton\u2019s comments during a weekend replete with talking points of its own.<\/p>\n<p>Mercedes had long been suspected by rival teams to have exploited the regulation measuring the compression ratio of its internal combustion engine \u2014 in effect, how much pressure the cylinder head can apply to the air and fuel mixture before ignition.<\/p>\n<p>The rules stated explicitly that the compression ratio was measured at ambient temperature, but Mercedes had apparently found a way to increase compression when the engine was running hot, a trick some manufacturers thought could be worth several tenths of a second.<\/p>\n<p>A mighty political brawl ensued, and the FIA, determined not to have the issue overshadow the start of the season, made a compromise. The rule would remain until June, before the Monaco Grand Prix, after which the compression ratio would be measured both at ambient and at operating temperature, closing the loophole and putting the matter to bed.<\/p>\n<p>PIT TALK PODCAST: The 2026 Formula 1 season is underway, with George Russell leading a Mercedes one-two to victory in Melbourne. But not every driver was thrilled with their first experience of the new rules.<\/p>\n<p>But after being on the receiving end of a thorough beating by Mercedes, Hamilton didn\u2019t think it was enough.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf it is the compression ratio, then I\u2019ll be disappointed that the FIA have allowed that to be the case,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s not to the [rule] book, and I\u2019ll be pushing my team to do the same thing so we can get more power.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The issue, he said, was imperative.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf they have a few months of that, then the season\u2019s done \u2014 I mean, not done, but seven races, a few months, you lose a lot of points with a second behind in quali,\u201d he argued.<\/p>\n<p>One should always be wary about making sweeping statements about the outcome of the championship after just one race.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s especially when the rules are so new and when there\u2019s still so much uncertainty about how the 2026 engines will respond to different circuits with different demands.<\/p>\n<p>Then again, Hamilton would recognise all the signs of impending domination \u2014 he was the one meting out the punishment for most of the last decade with Mercedes. He knows what the team is capable of.<\/p>\n<p>So is the season really over just as it\u2019s beginning? Or can we still hope for the wide-open competition we were teased at the start of the year?<\/p>\n<p>Is McLaren the right place for Piastri? | 02:24<\/p>\n<p>FERRARI LOOKS COMPETITIVE<\/p>\n<p>Hamilton and his Ferrari team are one of the principal reasons to be cautious about writing off the year in Mercedes\u2019s favour. Though it wasn\u2019t in the fight for victory after the first 11 laps, the team gave Mercedes a good run for its money at the start of the race.<\/p>\n<p>There are two reasons this is heartening.<\/p>\n<p>One is that, even if Mercedes\u2019s exploitation of the compression ratio loophole has given it a power boost, Ferrari has a handy trick of its own that\u2019s clearly working to devastating effect.<\/p>\n<p>Its smaller turbocharger generates a mighty kick off the line. Leclerc used to it rocket from fourth on the grid into the lead by the first corner. Hamilton followed him forward, rising from sixth to third on the first lap.<\/p>\n<p>That same engine design also gives the Ferrari a real punch out of slower corners. That was only just perceptible at Albert Park, where most of the slower corners were expunged at the start of the decade, but it will be more evident at other tracks.<\/p>\n<p>The advantage of getting a head start that can be serviced out of the corners is clear, and it\u2019s boosted by the fact other teams can\u2019t redesign their engines during the season \u2014 and we\u2019ll have to see if they try to follow suit next year.<\/p>\n<p>The second is that these regulations appear to make it hard for a driver to overwhelm another with superior pace. The strategic use of the electric motor means it\u2019s difficult to execute an overtake without making yourself vulnerable to a battery-assisted move later around the lap.<\/p>\n<p>This aspect of the rules has been criticised by some as making the racing artificial, but there\u2019s no doubting that it kept the competition close, with neither Leclerc nor Russell able to break away from each other, which also allowed Hamilton into the fight.<\/p>\n<p>The performance profile of Ferrari\u2019s engine, then, seems ideally suited to these regulations.<\/p>\n<p>The car has also been praised by rivals, with the SF-26 the fastest through the corners. Its aerodynamic philosophy \u2014 albeit at this extremely early stage of the season \u2014 seems like a fruitful one.<\/p>\n<p>If it can be developed quickly and Ferrari can say in the same ballpark as Mercedes, there\u2019s no reason to think it can\u2019t be a contender.<\/p>\n<p>Was OP&#8217;s crash a car or driver error? | 02:47<\/p>\n<p>MERCEDES IS BEST PREPARED \u2014 BUT THAT DOESN\u2019T MEAN IT CAN\u2019T BE CAUGHT<\/p>\n<p>The reverse is also true of Mercedes. Though it\u2019s clear the German marque turned up to Melbourne as by far the best prepared team in Formula 1, it can\u2019t rely on that advantage lasting for the entire season.<\/p>\n<p>We know one element of its performance will definitely be curtailed in the next few months once the new compression ratio regulation comes into effect in June.<\/p>\n<p>Hamilton lamented that it would arrive seven races too late, once the season was almost one-third of the way through.<\/p>\n<p>Given the probable cancellation of the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian grands prix, however, that amnesty time could end up lasting just five races \u2014 still enough to do some damage, but with a long time still to run before the season finale in December.<\/p>\n<p>There are other rule tweaks looming that could also hamstring Mercedes and benefit its rivals.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s clear Mercedes has done the best job mastering the new power unit regulations, but given the widespread criticism of the way the new motors need to be managed after Melbourne, the FIA appears poised to make changes to the regulations as soon as after the Chinese Grand Prix this weekend.<\/p>\n<p>If the sport does resolve to make modifications, they are likely to help teams recover electrical energy more easily. At some point the sport might consider detuning the electric motors to help the batteries last longer.<\/p>\n<p>Given Mercedes is most on top of both these elements, rule changes in these areas could serve to neuter the team\u2019s advantage by levelling the playing field to benefit other engine builders.<\/p>\n<p>And given the centrality of the engine to the new rules \u2014 the better the engine, the more you can focus on charging the battery without hurting lap time, which makes the engine better and so on \u2014 any such boost could potentially have a significant effect in closing the gaps between manufacturers.<\/p>\n<p>Not that the gaps are that significant. Ferrari proved at Albert Park \u2014 which is one of the top four most difficult circuits for the new engine \u2014 that it\u2019s thereabouts. At a track closer to the average, like at this weekend\u2019s Chinese Grand Prix, the gap might naturally be smaller \u2014 and the Scuderia already showed it was close enough in Melbourne to hold the lead early in the race.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s just so much unknown about how these cars and engines will work together over the season, and there\u2019s so much development still to come and lessons still to be imparted, that the form guide should still be considered fluid just week into the year.<\/p>\n<p>&#8216;Oscar are you OK?&#8217; Aussie in pure shock | 00:28<\/p>\n<p>ANTONELLI COULD AT LEAST GIVE US A FIGHT<\/p>\n<p>But let\u2019s say Mercedes really does have an unimpeachable advantage this year and that Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull Racing have no hope of catching up.<\/p>\n<p>That doesn\u2019t mean the tile fight has to be over.<\/p>\n<p>Antonelli, in just his second season in Formula 1, had the pace in Australia to suggest he could be a real thorn in Russell\u2019s side.<\/p>\n<p>The Italian blew hot and cold in his debut season but came on strong late in the year with some impressive and complete weekends, most notably in Brazil, where he had his teammate\u2019s measure all weekend. He also held back title contender Piastri throughout the Las Vegas Grand Prix to earn himself a place on the podium.<\/p>\n<p>Mercedes is adamant that Antonelli can be Formula 1\u2019s next big thing, and in Melbourne he demonstrated why, even if he took the most convoluted route to his strong second-place finish.<\/p>\n<p>The Italian\u2019s big crash in FP3 \u2014 though it sits in the category of odd engine-related drama \u2014 came close to ruling him out of qualifying. He only just got out in Q1 \u2014 ironically thanks to Max Verstappen\u2019s motor-related off \u2014 but didn\u2019t have time to set up the car to his liking.<\/p>\n<p>He cruised through to Q3, but he binned his first lap running off the road. No matter \u2014 his second lap was enough to pinch provisional pole from Russell until the Briton took back top spot.<\/p>\n<p>Antonelli lost five places off the line after being swamped at the first turn thanks to a depleted battery but was back up to fourth place at the first virtual safety car. Double stacked with Russell, he rejoined sixth but was the faster Mercedes driver during the long final stint, ending the race less than three seconds behind his teammate.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHe\u2019s literally learning it the hard way, which makes him stronger,\u201d team boss Toto Wolff said. \u201cHe was very, very strong on Friday, and his pace on Saturday was there, but then the accident happened \u2014 and that can happen.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s a miracle that the mechanics were able to put the car back on track for qualifying. You can see that it\u2019s just a very solid base of a car \u2014 there wasn\u2019t any set-up on it. We didn\u2019t measure the car, and he was able to qualify so well and then execute in the race.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAt the end it\u2019s a very good second place. He was very fast at the end. He had the pace, and there\u2019s more to be expected \u2014 he will expect more from him and we will expect more performance from the car and to get rid of those gremlins and have the two race each other fair and square, hopefully with some of the other cars.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Sometimes teammate battles make for the most tense championship duels.<\/p>\n<p>But even if Antonelli can\u2019t go the distance with an in-form Russell, he could delay the Briton opening a championship advantage for long enough that rivals can catch up \u2014 just as Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri almost opened the door to an unlikely Max Verstappen title last year.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s yet another reason to believe that the 2026 season is far from finished, despite Hamilton\u2019s pessimism.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Lewis Hamilton was in good form at the Australian Grand Prix, the seven-time champion starting his follow-up Ferrari&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":535017,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[573],"tags":[2095,265518,12295,64,63,689,265524,11308,22783,13275,84696,265521,220229,241751,236213,265529,265522,220200,32372,24320,152577,38758,265517,265513,241737,246252,817,25621,813,816,265519,3875,2093,2105,841,14211,148574,265251,2101,1737,2082,825,647,2041,2067,677,4585,2119,223968,265523,265525,127081,265526,32913,16193,265262,16205,265527,25598,35454,33195,22305,11298,85,265528,265515,265516,265514,265520,2614,660],"class_list":{"0":"post-535016","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-formula-1","8":"tag-america","9":"tag-amnesty-time","10":"tag-andrea-kimi-antonelli","11":"tag-au","12":"tag-australia","13":"tag-australia-and-new-zealand","14":"tag-back-title-contender","15":"tag-brazil","16":"tag-championship-advantage","17":"tag-charles-leclerc","18":"tag-combustion-engine","19":"tag-comfortable-one-two-finish","20":"tag-compression-ratio","21":"tag-compression-ratio-controversy","22":"tag-compression-ratio-loophole","23":"tag-compression-ratio-regulation","24":"tag-compression-ratio-thing","25":"tag-cylinder-head","26":"tag-david-croft","27":"tag-debut-season","28":"tag-driver-error","29":"tag-drivers-parade","30":"tag-electric-motor-means","31":"tag-engine-advantages","32":"tag-engine-builders","33":"tag-engine-design","34":"tag-f1","35":"tag-final-stint","36":"tag-formula-1","37":"tag-formula1","38":"tag-fuel-mixture","39":"tag-george-russell","40":"tag-german-marque","41":"tag-getty-images-inc","42":"tag-grand-prix","43":"tag-grands-prix","44":"tag-head-start","45":"tag-hurting-lap-time","46":"tag-italian-team","47":"tag-lando-norris","48":"tag-mark-thompson","49":"tag-max-verstappen","50":"tag-melbourne","51":"tag-north-america","52":"tag-northern-america","53":"tag-oceania","54":"tag-panel-debate","55":"tag-pit-talk","56":"tag-power-unit-regulations","57":"tag-principal-reasons","58":"tag-probable-cancellation","59":"tag-provisional-pole","60":"tag-real-impression","61":"tag-receiving-end","62":"tag-regulation-changes","63":"tag-right-place","64":"tag-rule-changes","65":"tag-rule-tweaks-looming","66":"tag-safety-car","67":"tag-season-finale","68":"tag-season-opener","69":"tag-seven-time-champion","70":"tag-south-america","71":"tag-sports","72":"tag-strategy-paths","73":"tag-teammate-battles","74":"tag-tense-championship-duels","75":"tag-tile-fight","76":"tag-trading-blows","77":"tag-united-states-of-america","78":"tag-victoria"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/535016","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=535016"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/535016\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/535017"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=535016"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=535016"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=535016"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}