{"id":539886,"date":"2026-03-14T12:07:21","date_gmt":"2026-03-14T12:07:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/539886\/"},"modified":"2026-03-14T12:07:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-14T12:07:21","slug":"experts-caution-as-fuel-subsidy-soars-to-rm3-2bil-a-month","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/539886\/","title":{"rendered":"Experts caution as fuel subsidy soars to RM3.2bil a month"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>PETALING JAYA: The transition from RM700mil to RM3.2bil in monthly fuel support provides a critical buffer against global volatility, but economists say the move is sustainable only if it serves as a bridge to comprehensive, long-term structural pivots.<\/p>\n<p>They said the sharp rise in expenditure is designed to maintain the RM1.99 ceiling for RON95 and subsidised diesel amidst volatile global crude oil prices.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>While the measure protects consumers from price surges, Professor Emeritus Dr Barjoyai Bardai argued that long-term fiscal health depends on diversifying energy sources and fixing systemic productivity gaps.<\/p>\n<p>He emphasised that the subsidy spike is a reactive necessity rather than a policy choice.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis does not mean we are increasing subsidies; it is a budget that accounts for rising crude oil prices.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf the government wants to maintain the RM1.99 ceiling, it has no choice but to provide this additional allocation,\u201d he said when contacted yesterday.<\/p>\n<p>However, he cautioned that the projected RM4bil saved from recent diesel reforms is only a temporary cushion.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cShort-term initiatives are fine, but mid- and long-term steps are essential.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe must reduce fossil fuel reliance by intensifying solar and hydrogen energy, and exploring electric vehicles (EVs),\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Barjoyai also said that as a net importer needing an extra 20 million tonnes of oil stocks, Malaysia must identify new sources and funding.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>He suggested that a 20% expected rise in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) prices could bolster Petronas\u2019 profits, potentially leading to higher dividends to support the treasury.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Sunway University economics professor Dr Yeah Kim Leng said a RM3.2bil monthly increase in subsidies for RON95 and diesel over the next nine months is estimated to increase the country\u2019s fiscal deficit by 1.5% points from the targeted 3.5% of GDP to around 5% this year.<\/p>\n<p>ALSO READ:\u00a0<a data-content-author=\"NA\" data-content-category=\"News\/Nation\" data-content-id=\"1833473\" data-content-sp=\"NA\" data-content-title=\"Enough fuel for Hari Raya\" data-content-type=\"Article\" data-list-position=\"2\" data-list-type=\"Paged Stories\" data-list-variant=\"News\/Nation\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thestar.com.my\/news\/nation\/2026\/03\/14\/enough-fuel-for-hari-raya\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Enough fuel for Hari Raya<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u201cSince much of the deficit financing is likely through borrowings, the country\u2019s debt will rise by an equivalent amount.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis is deemed to be a significant deterioration of the country\u2019s fiscal position, more so, considering that the spending is on fuel consumption rather than on productive purposes such as infrastructures, healthcare and education,\u201d said Yeah.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhile it will keep a lid on inflation, a more prudent, sustainable approach, is to share the fuel subsidy burden with households and businesses especially if the world oil price level stays high for longer,\u201d Yeah added.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, Yeah explained that Malaysia is a net energy exporter and the higher petroleum and gas export earnings provide a buffer against a sharp oil supply as well as a price shock.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAsean peers like Thailand, Phillipines, and Indonesia are more dependent on oil imports than Malaysia, increasing significantly their exposure to world oil supply shocks,\u201d said Yeah.<\/p>\n<p>Centre for Market Education chief executive officer Dr Carmelo Ferlito was of the opinion that the subsidy surge exposes the vulnerability of public finances when price controls meet external volatility.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSubsidies create the illusion of stability while accumulating hidden costs,\u201d Ferlito said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>He explained that when subsidies become structural, they transfer the burden directly to the fiscal system, resulting in higher pressure elsewhere.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere are no free meals; someone is always paying for the benefit enjoyed by someone else.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>On food security, he argued that while stockpiling is a precautionary measure, it should remain an emergency tool rather than a substitute for domestic competitiveness.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFood security has two fundamental pillars \u2013 innovation and productivity growth, and free trade,\u201d he added, warning that administrative stock management can become inefficient without broader agricultural reforms.<\/p>\n<p>Williams Business Consultancy Sdn Bhd founder Geoffrey Williams highlighted the sheer scale of the fiscal burden.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>He said while the subsidy cost per litre rose by 88%, the total monthly bill has ballooned by 360%.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe new estimates suggest that all of the savings from the Budi95 rationalisation reforms will be wiped out,\u201d Williams warned.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Since these costs are not in the current budget, he said the government would need to reallocate funds or cut spending if the trend persists.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the fiscal pressure, Williams assured the public that fuel and food supplies remain secure, at least until June.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere is no need for panic buying,\u201d he said, adding that while Malaysia faces fewer supply issues than its Asean neighbours, its unique challenge lies in balancing the heavy burden of subsidies against fiscal sustainability.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"PETALING JAYA: The transition from RM700mil to RM3.2bil in monthly fuel support provides a critical buffer against global&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":539887,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,164,6675],"class_list":["post-539886","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-na"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/539886","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=539886"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/539886\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/539887"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=539886"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=539886"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=539886"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}