![\"James](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/56a1d65382c02677ae34975d72948a96b0c7464d.png\")
<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
March 15, 2026 \u2014 6:00pm<\/p>\n
Save<\/p>\n
You have reached your maximum number of saved items.<\/p>\n
Remove items from your saved list<\/a> to add more.<\/p>\n Save this article for later<\/p>\n Add articles to your saved list and come back to them anytime.<\/p>\n Got it<\/p>\n AAA<\/p>\n Key pointsOne Nation\u2019s primary vote has surged to 24 per cent, overtaking the Coalition for the first time in Resolve polling.The federal opposition\u2019s primary support has plummeted to a record low of 22 per cent despite a leadership change.Labor\u2019s primary vote has also regressed to 29 per cent, its lowest mark in a year as half of all respondents said they would not vote for one of the major parties.<\/p>\n A rampant One Nation has begun taking support from the Albanese government, while the federal opposition\u2019s primary vote has for the first time fallen behind Pauline Hanson\u2019s crossbench party to hit a record low.<\/p>\n The Coalition\u2019s low primary vote stands in contrast to the reaction to the Liberal Party\u2019s decision to dump Sussan Ley and switch to Angus Taylor. The new opposition leader recorded a net score of plus 9 percentage points for his performance, compared to minus 17 points for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and a woeful minus 23 points for Ley in the final poll before she was forced out last month.<\/p>\n But the switch to Taylor has had little impact on the Coalition\u2019s primary vote and Labor has gone backwards too. The ALP\u2019s primary vote fell 3 percentage points to 29 per cent. The Coalition fell by 1 percentage point to 22 per cent, a record low, and One Nation\u2019s primary vote rose by 2 percentage points to 24 per cent.<\/p>\n The poll, conducted by Resolve<\/a> from March 9 to 14, was run against the backdrop of a sudden, sharp rise in fuel prices because of the Iran war and rising cost-of-living pressures.<\/p>\n A whopping 50 per cent of voters indicated they would support a political party other than the major parties and that they would instead back One Nation, the Greens or independents, the first time this has occurred in the Resolve Political Monitor. It is another sign that voters\u2019 support for the major parties has cratered.<\/p>\n Labor\u2019s support is at 29 per cent, dropping from a 34.6 per cent primary vote in the May election. It was last below 30 per cent in March 2025.<\/p>\n Last March, support for the Coalition was 37 per cent, which means that support for the federal opposition has dropped 15 percentage points, to 22 per cent, in a year. One Nation\u2019s support was at 7 per cent last March and 6.4 per cent at the May election. The party had never polled a primary vote of over 10 per cent until September 2025, when it reached 12 per cent.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n But just three months after former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce quit the party and joined One Nation, support for the party is now at 24 per cent \u2013 and it is higher than the official opposition for the first time.<\/p>\n The findings come as the Coalition, One Nation and independent Michelle Milthorpe gear up for the Farrer byelection, which will be held on May 9. On Sunday the Liberal Party pre-selected Albury councillor and lawyer Raissa Butkowski as its candidate for the seat, which had been held by Ley for 25 years.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Support for the Greens and independents increased by 1 percentage point each, to 12 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively.<\/p>\n This masthead has chosen not to publish the two-party-preferred vote between the Coalition and Labor because the huge surge in support for One Nation makes any preference vote potentially misleading.<\/p>\n Only a seat-by-seat two-candidate-preferred vote count could indicate which seats One Nation could potentially win, given the party\u2019s support is typically concentrated in a smaller group of seats than that of major parties.<\/p>\n Resolve pollster Jim Reed said Taylor seemed to have started off well: his leadership rating equals Ley\u2019s highs over the past year.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \u201cBut the challenge will be to sustain his competitiveness to turn it into votes, and already voters don\u2019t seem to have seen much of him since he took over,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cLabor have lost vote share to minor parties and are sitting at their lowest point this term. This follows the interest rate rise and fuel shortages, which are the straw that broke the camel\u2019s back for voters who have been struggling with the cost of living for four years now.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \u201cThis proves our thesis that One Nation are acting much like Reform in the UK, first taking vote share from the right and then the left. They are taking votes from those who feel ill served, ignored or rejected by the major parties, and they\u2019re voting for change, any change.\u201d<\/p>\n Voters\u2019 disillusionment with the major parties was discussed in focus groups conducted by Resolve. People offered comments such as \u201cthe major parties are just arguing in parliament about ISIS brides while the world\u2019s burning!\u201d and \u201cnow leaning towards One Nation because at least Pauline loves her country\u201d.<\/p>\n And while voters\u2019 appraisal of Taylor\u2019s performance as leader was a huge improvement on his predecessor Ley, Albanese remains preferred prime minister \u2013 though by a much reduced margin.<\/p>\n Albanese led Ley 38-22 as preferred prime minister, with 40 per cent undecided. He leads Taylor by just 4 percentage points, 35-31, with 34 per cent of voters undecided.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Voters\u2019 No.1 policy priority remains keeping the cost of living low: 43 per cent of voters nominated this issue, including 11 per cent of people within that group specifically nominating house and rental prices and availability.<\/p>\n No other issue or topic, ranging from economic management through to energy and climate to immigration, recorded a score in double figures.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n The poll had 1803 respondents and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 per cent.<\/p>\n Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter<\/a>.<\/p>\n Save<\/p>\n You have reached your maximum number of saved items.<\/p>\n Remove items from your saved list<\/a> to add more.<\/p>\n![\"Anthony](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/7ff67757b9df0f76405059c1f8641eff7d39945e.jpeg\")
Anthony Albanese, Pauline Hanson and Angus Taylor. Both major parties have lost support to One Nation.Aresna Villanueva<\/p>\n![\"James](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/1769886552_100_56a1d65382c02677ae34975d72948a96b0c7464d.png\")
James Massola<\/a> is chief political commentator. He was previously national affairs editor and South-East Asia correspondent. He has won Quill and Kennedy awards and been a Walkley finalist. Connect securely on Signal @jamesmassola.01Connect via X<\/a> or email<\/a>.From our partners<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"March 15, 2026 \u2014 6:00pm Save You have reached your maximum number of saved items. Remove items from…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":542293,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[43,44,41,39,42,40],"class_list":["post-542292","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-headlines","tag-news","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/542292","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=542292"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/542292\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/542293"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=542292"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=542292"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=542292"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}