{"id":542684,"date":"2026-03-15T21:21:15","date_gmt":"2026-03-15T21:21:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/542684\/"},"modified":"2026-03-15T21:21:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-15T21:21:15","slug":"afl-2026-round-1-talking-points","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/542684\/","title":{"rendered":"AFL 2026, Round 1 Talking Points"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The first full round of footy is in the books, though the fact some teams have already played twice continues to frustrate fans and coaches alike.<\/p>\n<p>From the messy fixture, to a worrying win and to years of pain continuing, the big issues from Round 1 are analysed in Foxfooty.com.au\u2019s Talking Points!<\/p>\n<p>Watch every match of every round of the Premiership Season LIVE and ad-break free during play on FOX FOOTY, available on Kayo Sports | New to Kayo? <a href=\"https:\/\/kayosports.com.au\/?pg=default&amp;extcamp=fsaeditoriallinkafl-edt-fsp-lnk-awr-grc-afl-kyo&amp;channel=fsa&amp;campaign=fsacontra&amp;voucher=\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Join now and get your first month for just $1.<\/a><\/p>\n<p><img class=\"i-amphtml-fill-content i-amphtml-replaced-content\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/poster-fallback.png\"\/><\/p>\n<p>PROBLEM WITH COACH\u2019S OPENING ROUND \u2018ADVANTAGE\u2019 WHINGE<\/p>\n<p>Hang on, Justin Longmuir, are you suggesting there might be something a bit unfair with the AFL fixture?<\/p>\n<p>Surely not.<\/p>\n<p>The Fremantle coach gave voice to a growing concern among the footy commentariat on Saturday following his<a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxsports.com.au\/afl\/teams\/fremantle-dockers\/afl-2026-justin-longmuir-post-match-press-conference-video-fremantle-dockers-loss-to-geelong-cats-opening-round-advantage-latest-news\/news-story\/aee5595243b7e4630877e77c94462e77\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"> side\u2019s collapse in Geelong.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Dockers led by almost six goals but the Cats eventually overran them, with Longmuir linking Geelong getting to play in Opening Round to their late-game fitness edge.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think anyone who has been around football would realise this is an advantage,\u201d he said in his press conference.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe should all start the season the same way. There should be no competitive advantage in teams having played a game before they play another team.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt just makes so much sense to people in the industry. We\u2019ve just got it wrong.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Longmuir: &#8216;Lost a bit of composure&#8217; | 05:21<\/p>\n<p>The theory is certainly logical. Teams are often shaky with their skills in their first game of the season and then improve; combine that with their bodies being more accustomed to running out a full, competitive game (which you simply can\u2019t practice, no matter how hard you try).<\/p>\n<p>The problem is finding the actual evidence.<\/p>\n<p>In Fremantle\u2019s case, they probably should\u2019ve won anyway given their six-goal lead. And it\u2019s worth noting they had the exact same Round 1 fixture last year &#8211; vs Geelong at GMHBA &#8211; and lost by 78 points, when neither team had played in Opening Round.<\/p>\n<p>On the surface, Round 1 games between Opening Round teams and Not Opening Round teams show a clear trend, but this is a clear case where stats can be abused &#8211; because almost all of those games were simply won by the favourite.<\/p>\n<p>Round 1 games between Played In Opening Round and Didn\u2019t Play In Opening Round<\/p>\n<p>2024: Melbourne (played in OR) def Western Bulldogs (didn\u2019t play in OR) &#8211; Melbourne favourite<\/p>\n<p>2024: Fremantle (didn\u2019t play in OR) def Brisbane (played in OR) &#8211; Brisbane favourite<\/p>\n<p>2024: Gold Coast (played in OR) def Adelaide (didn\u2019t play in OR) &#8211; Gold Coast favourite<\/p>\n<p>2024: GWS (played in OR) def North Melbourne (didn\u2019t play in OR) &#8211; GWS favourite<\/p>\n<p>2025: Brisbane (didn\u2019t play in OR) def Sydney (played in OR) &#8211; Brisbane favourite<\/p>\n<p>2025: Hawthorn (played in OR) def Essendon (didn\u2019t play in OR) &#8211; Hawthorn favourite<\/p>\n<p>2025: GWS (played in OR) def Melbourne (didn\u2019t play in OR) &#8211; GWS favourite<\/p>\n<p>2025: Collingwood (played in OR) def Port Adelaide (didn\u2019t play in OR) &#8211; Collingwood favourite<\/p>\n<p>2026: Carlton (played in OR) def Richmond (didn\u2019t play in OR) &#8211; Carlton favourite<\/p>\n<p>2026: Gold Coast (played in OR) def West Coast (didn\u2019t play in OR) &#8211; Gold Coast favourite<\/p>\n<p>2026: Geelong (played in OR) def Fremantle (didn\u2019t play in OR) &#8211; Geelong favourite<\/p>\n<p>2026: Hawthorn (played in OR) def Essendon (didn\u2019t play in OR) &#8211; Hawthorn favourite<\/p>\n<p>2026: Adelaide (didn\u2019t play in OR) def Collingwood (played in OR) &#8211; Collingwood favourite<\/p>\n<p>2026: Melbourne (didn\u2019t play in OR) def St Kilda (played in OR) &#8211; St Kilda favourite<\/p>\n<p>Record for teams who played in Opening Round: 10-4<\/p>\n<p>Record for the betting favourite: 11-3<\/p>\n<p>To us, these numbers suggest the \u2018Opening Round advantage\u2019 theory is true to a minor degree, but we also think people are retrofitting a narrative to suit their case.<\/p>\n<p>The simplest explanation? Bad teams usually don\u2019t play in Opening Round, so for the most part, this is a situation where good teams are simply winning games they should.<\/p>\n<p>Having said that, it\u2019s unusual for favourites to be winning quite this often (especially in Round 1 which is more unpredictable than most); so if you wanted to argue that these good teams had an additional, minor advantage from being match-hardened, we could see that being true.<\/p>\n<p>But that is still completely theoretical. Sure, in the case of Fremantle-Geelong, the Cats ran out the game better&#8230; but Carlton didn\u2019t on Thursday night. They looked terrible and exhausted in the second half of their win over Richmond. (Admittedly, Carlton basically always looks like that.)<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile Melbourne had the running power all day against St Kilda, with 34-year-old Max Gawn easily outperforming his younger, theoretically more athletic opponent Tom De Koning in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n<p>Ryan Soars for MOTY Contender | 00:47<\/p>\n<p>In the end, we suspect it\u2019s similar to teams coming off a mid-season bye playing teams who haven\u2019t had theirs yet; there\u2019s the advantage of rest, but the disadvantage of rust, and there\u2019s no discernible trend in how it determines results.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019re not disagreeing with the logic of \u2018a team that played a game last week is more ready than a team that didn\u2019t\u2019, but there is no real proof it\u2019s deciding matches.<\/p>\n<p>Is it something the AFL should ideally try to avoid? Yes, just like they should ideally try to match up teams coming off a mid-season bye against each other.<\/p>\n<p>But the league clearly has different priorities, like trying to create more appetising match-ups during the bye rounds. They do not promise nor try to create a perfectly balanced fixture focused entirely on competitive balance because they want to both run a sports league and maximise revenue; and those two goals are sometimes in conflict.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s not an excuse, but it\u2019s the reality, in the same way that the mere existence of Opening Round draws plenty of complaints.<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re gonna keep persisting with that too, because viewership and attendance continues to be high, and because it creates additional primetime games (taking away games from lesser timeslots) without actually adding another game to the fixture.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s nothing wrong with being critical, but understanding why something is or isn\u2019t happening can only help.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Max Laughton<\/p>\n<p>Larkey kicks four as North dominate Port | 05:16<\/p>\n<p>\u2018REALITY\u2019 BLUES CAN\u2019T IGNORE&#8230; BUT WITH THE PERFECT FIGURE PULLING THE STRINGS<\/p>\n<p>Carlton got back on the winner\u2019s list after <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxsports.com.au\/afl\/live-afl-2026-carlton-blues-vs-richmond-tigers-round-1-live-updates-scores-blog-stats-start-time-aedt-and-how-to-watch-stream-latest-news\/news-story\/b453655cb86612039b31c270df8c94cd\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">holding off a late Tigers charge.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>But there\u2019s a \u201creality\u201d facing the Blues in what feels like something of a gap year.<\/p>\n<p>Carlton effectively pushed a mini reset button in the off-season by trading Charlie Curnow for an assortment of picks and bringing in several recruits via trade and free agency.<\/p>\n<p>Which, sure, added depth. But along with the departures of Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni, lowered their star factor and overall ceiling.<\/p>\n<p>That transition was clear when the club unearthed seven new players against Sydney in Opening Round.<\/p>\n<p>It puts the Blues in a unique, betwixt and between position \u2014 where they\u2019re essentially building for the future yet trying to remain competitive as Michael Voss coaches for his fate.<\/p>\n<p>The club is very well positioned from a draft capital perspective after the Curnow trade \u2014 it has four first-round picks over the next two drafts \u2014 its own and Sydney\u2019s.<\/p>\n<p>The two extra picks this year will come in particularly handy with father-son prospect Cody Walker a potential No. 1 pick. The tightening of the draft bidding system makes those extra selections all the more valuable. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>But Carlton fans who haven\u2019t seen premiership success in over 30 years don\u2019t care about draft picks or Walker right now. And they\u2019ve already lived through multiple eras of so much promise \u2014 from Chris Judd\u2019s arrival to the recent iteration that led Brisbane by five goals in a prelim.<\/p>\n<p>Blues win in 4-point thriller at MCG | 03:40<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe reality here is Carlton basically knows this and it hasn\u2019t admitted it \u2013 its list is still a mile off,\u201d Herald Sun reporter Jon Ralph said on Fox Footy.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt trades out Charlie Curnow and needs to bring in more run, more dash and some more forward options. It needs to bring in some more points for Cody Walker, which it has done.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBut it\u2019s left it really dangerously thin in some parts, there\u2019s certainly some players that will move on and not be part of the next premiership side.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>So how much more aggressive does Carlton get in turning over this list?<\/p>\n<p>Do they cut even deeper and aggressively attack the draft and stockpile more picks to prioritise a young nucleus around the likes of Walker, Jagga Smith and Harry Dean?<\/p>\n<p>Michael Voss, Senior Coach of the Blues walks the boundary during the 2026 AFL Round 01 match between the Carlton Blues and the Richmond Tigers,Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSo are they toe in the water with this? We look at what Richmond did, you\u2019ve got to few out the door to get a few picks in in a hurry and bank a glut of picks year in year,\u201d Kangaroos great David King said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cDo they need to explore (trading) another two or three at the end of this year that are high-commodity players?<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat about (to get) elite picks coming back, are you looking at Jacob Weitering, Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps \u2014 the star factor players?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>One thing\u2019s for sure. With new footy boss Chris Davies installed and chief executive Graham Wright pulling the strings from a bigger picture perspective, the club will be ruthless in its decision-making moving forward.<\/p>\n<p>In the best interests of one entity and one entity only \u2014 Carlton. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We were targeted all week&#8221; | 09:08<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think that\u2019s the best thing about Chris Davies coming across from Port Adelaide, he doesn\u2019t have any allegiances or loyalty to previous players,\u201d Ralph continued.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cGraham Wright is cold-hearted. He will look you in the face, slap you and trade you if that\u2019s the best thing for Carlton. They\u2019ve said Carlton first.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf Carlton first is, let\u2019s not talk about trading Patrick Cripps in Round 1. But if there are players out there that have collateral and they feel they value them less than another club, I think a lot of things will be open at the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe would love to see Michael Voss carry on, but they\u2019ll make some pretty cold, ruthless decisions that will be for the betterment of the long-term future of Carlton.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u2018WORRYING FACTOR\u2019: NEW YEAR, SAME PROBLEM IN BOMBERS BEATDOWN<\/p>\n<p>The AFL sphere should take caution in judging Essendon harshly against a preliminary finalist in Hawthorn &#8211; but what we saw on Friday night wasn\u2019t promising. <\/p>\n<p>And an AFL Hall of Fame Legend believes there\u2019s one factor in particular that should concern the Bombers\u2019 faithful as the club looks to flip its fortunes this year. <\/p>\n<p>Not only do Essendon\u2019s defensive issues remain &#8211; and sank to near-worst levels &#8211; but it was hard to decipher what improvements were made to the way the side defends. <\/p>\n<p>The Bombers had just about a full complement of back-half personnel available &#8211; sans Jordan Ridley &#8211; yet their 145 points conceded was their fifth-worst result under Brad Scott. <\/p>\n<p>Further, their 93 points conceded from turnover alone was the seventh-worst result under Scott. <\/p>\n<p>One more? The rate at which they allowed Hawthorn to transition the footy from defensive 50 to forward 50 &#8211; 41 per cent &#8211; was the fourth-worst outcome under Scott. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t know about expectation, but (the fans) come to the game today saying \u2018OK, last year is what it was\u2019 \u2026 and then you come up for your Round 1 game after six months of training, you put your best side out there \u2026 and then you get split open like this,\u201d Garry Lyon said during Fox Footy\u2019s post-match coverage on Friday. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cAnd some of these numbers &#8211; defensively, they\u2019d been poor for a long time, and it just didn\u2019t look like they had made any adjustments.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Hawks fly high over Merrett and Bombers | 02:26<\/p>\n<p>Dunstall said it was \u201chard to tell what they worked on\u201d in terms of stopping the opposition, in what was a low-pressure affair at the MCG. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou\u2019ve worked all preseason on things, you think \u2018we\u2019re better, we\u2019ve improved, we\u2019ve developed players \u2026\u2019, and then you get this harsh reality that you find \u2018oh, is that a mulligan, or are we still showing the same signs that we had last year?\u2019\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cI didn\u2019t see much that had changed from last year &#8211; that was the worrying factor, from an Essendon perspective, for me. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe defensive frailties are still there, and it\u2019s hard to tell exactly what it is that they worked on. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cI know they had to turn their list over so much with the injuries they had last year \u2026 it\u2019s just hard &#8211; you want to see progress going forward, and you just don\u2019t see any in Round 1, what\u2019s the mindset?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s been a rough start for the Bombers.Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>Former Geelong champion spearhead Tom Hawkins focused the conversation on Essendon\u2019s lack of pressure &#8211; something any team, no matter skill level, can hang their hat on. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cI just would love to have seen their pressure rating higher,\u201d Hawkins said. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThey had just about the side on paper that they would like to play with, yet their pressure rating was so poor. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think, as a side, when you don\u2019t have the continuity of playing together each week, pressure is something that you can control.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>An interesting part of the discussion &#8211; tying into Hawkins\u2019 comments &#8211; revolves around Hawthorn\u2019s skipper\u2019s comments with regard to uncontested marks. <\/p>\n<p>The Hawks took 150 uncontested marks for the game, but skipper James Sicily remarkably said it wasn\u2019t a focus for his side, rather just taking what the Bombers allowed them. <\/p>\n<p>Scott sees positives despite drubbing | 10:49<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNah, not really, to be honest,\u201d Sicily told a flummoxed Fox Footy panel post-game. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat was just sort of what they gave us. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think with those sorts of games, when there\u2019s high uncontested marks, there\u2019s not a whole lot of pressure in the game.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Hawthorn had 295 uncontested possessions on Friday. For context, last year\u2019s league leader for uncontested possessions &#8211; the Bulldogs &#8211; averaged 236 per game. <\/p>\n<p>As for marks, Brisbane averaged 104.4 last year to top the competition. The Hawks took 157 against the Dons. <\/p>\n<p>Even if playing a lower-pressure game was the aim for Scott\u2019s Bombers, they surely weren\u2019t planning on letting the Hawks control proceedings to that astronomical extent.<\/p>\n<p>Bevo&#8217;s cold response to Bont vs Daicos | 14:19<\/p>\n<p>\u2018GOT WHAT THEY DESERVED\u2019: GIANTS ROASTED FOR BONT BLUNDER<\/p>\n<p>He\u2019s a three-time Leigh Matthews Trophy winner as the AFL Players\u2019 Association MVP, but Bulldog Marcus Bontempelli was left without a tag in Saturday\u2019s big win over the Giants.<\/p>\n<p>GWS coach Adam Kingsley paid a hefty price.<\/p>\n<p>By half time, the Bont had racked up 18 disposals and three goals as his side opened up a 38-point buffer.<\/p>\n<p>And they were never challenged from there.<\/p>\n<p>Two-time premiership Roo David King was shocked by the decision not to send someone to Bontemeplli.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHe\u2019s got Brownlow votes in three of the last six times they\u2019ve played against this mob (GWS),\u201d King lamented.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAdam Kingsley knows what\u2019s coming, yet decided not to tag him!<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHe didn\u2019t have anyone near him.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think it\u2019s the most disrespected this man (Bontempelli) has been in a decade.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHe\u2019s a high-level player \u2013 when he\u2019s up and going, he finishes games.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThey let him run around unopposed for the first 60 minutes of this football match and they got what they deserved.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Bulldogs skipper would finish with 33 disposals \u2013 14 contested, more than 670m gained, 11 score involvements, six clearances, three tackles and 3.1.<\/p>\n<p>It was a remarkable output given statistically, Bontempelli averages his third worst disposals against GWS in the 19 meetings he\u2019s had with the Giants.<\/p>\n<p>Bulldogs start 2-0 after battering GWS | 02:37<\/p>\n<p>Speaking after the match, Kingsley defended his decision to let Bontempelli roam free.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe didn\u2019t start with one (a lock on Bont),\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe went to it at halftime. We put O\u2019Halloran to him and gave him a greater responsibility.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou know, if you consider the numbers Bontempelili for instance, 18 (disposals) and three goals at half time \u2013 he had 15 touches and no score in the second half. It\u2019s a better result.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s not completely shutting him out of the game \u2013 and I don\u2019t think anyone ever will.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOur numbers internally would suggest we get a better output without tagging a specific player through our midfield \u2013 that\u2019s not always the case.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>And the Giants\u2019 tagging tactics will no doubt be tested when they come up against the likes of Saint Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Magpie Nick Daicos in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI trust our midfield \u2013 we\u2019ve got a lot of good players through there. We just didn\u2019t play well,\u201d Kingsley said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s one week.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cUnfortunately, it was almost like a carbon copy of last year in this moment at this ground against this opposition.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Scott spray inspires epic Cats comeback | 03:59<\/p>\n<p>Bontempelli\u2019s dominance \u2013 one week after teammate Ed Richards played a starring role in the side\u2019s win over Brisbane, led Fox Footy\u2019s Jay Clark to question who is Batman and who is Robin in the duo\u2019s pairing.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLast week it was Ed Richards who went off against the Lions. Played a game we haven\u2019t seen statistically since Garry Ablett Junior,\u201d Clark said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c(Against GWS) it looked like (Clayton) Oliver was more concerned by Richards and that frees up Bontempelli.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat threat in that engine room is just so spread! What a beauty for Luke Beveridge.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The first full round of footy is in the books, though the fact some teams have already played&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":542685,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[560],"tags":[638,64,63,55,639,85],"class_list":["post-542684","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-afl","tag-afl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-australian-football-league","tag-australianfootballleague","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/542684","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=542684"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/542684\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/542685"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=542684"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=542684"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=542684"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}