{"id":544655,"date":"2026-03-16T19:33:10","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T19:33:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/544655\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T19:33:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T19:33:10","slug":"afl-2026-power-rankings-after-round-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/544655\/","title":{"rendered":"AFL 2026, Power Rankings after Round 1"},"content":{"rendered":"

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.<\/p>\n

Neither of last year\u2019s Grand Finalists has started impressively, with a shared issue threatening to bring them down. Plus why St Kilda\u2019s wobbly start is even worse than it appears.<\/p>\n

Watch every match of every round of the AFL Premiership Season LIVE and ad-break free during play on FOX FOOTY, available on Kayo Sports | New to Kayo? Join now and get your first month for just $1<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

See our ranking of every AFL club from best to worst after Round 1 below!<\/p>\n

How do the Power Rankings work? We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and\/or improve going forward. It\u2019s a little bit \u2018who\u2019s hot and who\u2019s not\u2019; part predictive, part analysis of what\u2019s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we\u2019d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.<\/p>\n

All times AEDT.<\/p>\n

Ryan Soars for MOTY Contender | 00:47<\/p>\n

1. GOLD COAST SUNS (2-0, 181.6%)<\/p>\n

Last week: Ranked 1st, def West Coast by 59 pts<\/p>\n

Halfway through the second quarter on Sunday night, it felt like the Suns could\u2019ve picked their margin, and we wouldn\u2019t have minded seeing them absolutely blow West Coast off the park with a massive score – the type the Suns themselves were conceding early in their history. (Not just as a statement, but to give themselves a healthy dose of percentage.) Still hard to find any flaws in their start to the year and we imagine Dimma will be keen to avoid a repeat of last year\u2019s shocking upset against the Tigers. Right now, there\u2019s nothing to criticise. We thought coming into 2026 they would be the \u2018start the season red hot and be flag favourite midway through the year\u2019 team and they\u2019re perfectly poised for that. But as we saw with Collingwood last year and Sydney before that, setting yourself up for success doesn\u2019t mean you\u2019ll find it.<\/p>\n

This week: Richmond at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm<\/p>\n

Hardwick: ‘A good day at the office!’ | 08:58<\/p>\n

2. WESTERN BULLDOGS (2-0, 154.1%)<\/p>\n

Last week: Ranked 3rd, def GWS by 81 pts<\/p>\n

The funny thing is, after pumping up the Bulldogs the last couple of years, we should be joining everyone else in celebrating how good they look… but we have to pump the brakes a little bit! We\u2019re definitely not saying they were lucky to beat the Giants, but they were fortunate to win by as much as they did, with a seven-goal swing on expected score. That follows an expected score impacted win over Brisbane in Opening Round. So they\u2019re clearly a very good team, and probably better than last year because of their noticeable defensive tweaks. But if we\u2019re gonna point out how much luck hurt them in recent years, we need to be balanced and point out how luck is helping them this year. It\u2019s pretty wild how they could have more wins against top eight quality sides after Round 2 than they did through all of 2025.<\/p>\n

This week: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval, Friday 7:40pm<\/p>\n

Bevo’s cold response to Bont vs Daicos | 14:19<\/p>\n

3. SYDNEY SWANS (2-0, 182.9%)<\/p>\n

Last week: Ranked 5th, def Brisbane by 44 pts<\/p>\n

You could easily put the Swans even higher than this, after an excellent win over Brisbane that saw Dean Cox\u2019s side living up to all the hype. But we\u2019re also looking forward and for the second straight year they\u2019re going to have to find a way to keep their brilliant ball movement going while missing Errol Gulden, without whom they were considerably worse in 2025. Given his inside-outside midfield mix we would argue he\u2019s their most important player right now, and being without him for four months probably pushes Sydney down from a top four near-certainty to fighting for the last spots in the top six. The good news is they\u2019ve got a couple of wins on the board so they\u2019re not going to be fighting out of a hole like last year, when they were 0-2 and then 2-5. They\u2019ve got some tricky games to come (Hawthorn away, Gold Coast in Gather Round, the SCG Derby and then the Bulldogs away) but they only need to pinch one of those (and beat West Coast in Round 4 which… duh) to have a winning record at Anzac Day.<\/p>\n

This week: Hawthorn at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm<\/p>\n

Cox reacts to Injury scare on star duo | 10:44<\/p>\n

4. BRISBANE LIONS (0-2, 77.2%)<\/p>\n

Last week: Ranked 2nd, lost to Sydney by 44 pts<\/p>\n

We\u2019re not massively concerned about the Lions but it\u2019s fair to flag their defence as an issue. They have primarily won games over the past two seasons without shutting down opponents – they\u2019re more likely to control a game with their uncontested mark dominance – and have conceded some massive scores even during their two premiership campaigns. So while they have some excuses, like arguably playing the game\u2019s two best attacks in their first two games along with their absences on the weekend, this is kinda just a continuing problem. They were 6th for points allowed last year so it wouldn\u2019t surprise us if they ended the season mid-table defensively. That limits their home and away ceiling but as long as they\u2019re in the top six when September starts, they can win it.<\/p>\n

This week: BYE<\/p>\n

Fagan defends ‘Undermanned’ 0-2 Lions | 06:28<\/p>\n

5. GEELONG (1-1, 79.6%)<\/p>\n

Last week: Ranked 4th, def Fremantle by 10 pts<\/p>\n

That comeback win over the Dockers may prove even more vital than it appeared at first glance, given the Cats\u2019 very tricky fixture, including games against Adelaide, Hawthorn and the Bulldogs over the next month. We\u2019re definitely concerned about their defence, having given up 100 points twice in a row – in particular on Saturday, given the Dockers only scored over 85 points once against a top eight opponent in 2025. They weren\u2019t incredible defensively last year, giving up a triple digit score five times, and they were even leakier in 2024… when they still hosted a prelim. It\u2019s something they can overcome but they are a long way off the standard of the 2022 Cats, who conceded just 11 goals a game.<\/p>\n

This week: BYE<\/p>\n

Scott unfazed by slow start against Freo | 06:11<\/p>\n

6. ADELAIDE CROWS (1-0, 117.7%)<\/p>\n

Last week: Ranked 6th, def Collingwood by 14 pts<\/p>\n

That was an excellent, professional win over the Magpies – the type of away victory that the great teams bank over the course of a season to build a top-four resume – in a great sign for the Crows\u2019 chances. They\u2019ll be underdogs again going into Friday night\u2019s big clash against the Bulldogs and there\u2019s every chance they\u2019ll continue to prove the footy media wrong (as we are, broadly speaking, ignoring them when discussing the AFL\u2019s best teams). We would be extremely impressed if they enter Gather Round with a winning record, given they\u2019ve also got Geelong away and Fremantle to come, but they\u2019re a chance of doing so.<\/p>\n

This week: Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval, Friday 7:40pm<\/p>\n

How Crows avenged 2025 losses to Pies | 10:58<\/p>\n

7. FREMANTLE (0-1, 90.9%)<\/p>\n

Last week: Ranked 9th, lost to Geelong by 10 pts<\/p>\n

Justin Longmuir was understandably frustrated with the loss to Geelong and we don\u2019t doubt the comparative lack of match fitness played some role in the game, but blaming Opening Round for the loss is silly<\/a> – especially given Adelaide and Melbourne won games later in the weekend against sides that had the same \u2018advantage\u2019. He was probably annoyed because it was a massive opportunity gone begging, especially with how good the Dockers looked in the first half. If they play like that all season, they\u2019ll be making the top four with a massive shot at a preliminary final (or better), so dropping four points makes more of an impact in that context. We said pre-season the Dockers absolutely had the potential to prove us wrong, and be a true contender rather than just making up the numbers, but we needed to see it to believe in them (because last year wasn\u2019t as good as everyone thought). That was a hell of a start, and it\u2019s why we have moved them up two spots despite losing.<\/p>\n

This week: Melbourne at Optus Stadium, Saturday 7:35pm<\/p>\n

Longmuir: ‘Lost a bit of composure’ | 05:21<\/p>\n

8. HAWTHORN (1-1, 117.1%)<\/p>\n

Last week: Ranked 8th, def Essendon by 62 pts<\/p>\n

The Hawks are in this weird place where we can\u2019t tell if they\u2019re legit contenders… yet we\u2019re pretty sure we\u2019re gonna tip them against a red-hot Sydney. Last Friday night\u2019s win was heavily influenced by the fact the concept of defence is stuck in traffic on the Tulla, so the Bombers are yet to be introduced to it – you can\u2019t look too deeply into how good Hawthorn looked, though it was still a promising sign. At their best the Swans could tear the Hawks apart like GWS did in Opening Round, but the Swans won\u2019t be at their best without Errol Gulden and Isaac Heeney. And so it\u2019s a great opportunity for Sam Mitchell\u2019s men to bank a pretty juicy win ahead of a very tough stretch after their Round 3 bye (Geelong, Bulldogs, Gold Coast, Collingwood and Fremantle away, with a likely win over Port sandwiched in there).<\/p>\n

This week: Sydney at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm<\/p>\n

Mitchell not getting carried away | 05:21<\/p>\n

9. GWS GIANTS (1-1, 76.4%)<\/p>\n

Last week: Ranked 7th, lost to Western Bulldogs by 81 pts<\/p>\n

To be fair, they also got smashed by the Bulldogs last year, and still had a pretty great home and away season – so that doesn\u2019t disqualify them from being contenders. So while we\u2019re not massively concerned about the Giants we were more impressed by a few other teams and thus had to move them down. They still feel pretty comfortably like a top 10 team; we like Melbourne but not THAT much, and Collingwood doesn\u2019t have a high ceiling with their offensive woes. The only other realistic team to break into the top 10 would be St Kilda… and, well, Saturday evening will be very instructive.<\/p>\n

This week: St Kilda at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm<\/p>\n

“Is that worst case scenario?” | 08:51<\/p>\n

10. COLLINGWOOD (1-1, 98.7%)<\/p>\n

Last week: Ranked 10th, lost to Adelaide by 14 pts<\/p>\n

They have proven us wrong before, but the Magpies don\u2019t look like they have the ceiling to become a premiership contender. They are defensively sound, professional and tough to beat. They will rarely be embarrassed this year. But do they have the capacity to score 120 points in a game, like the best attacks in the comp – Suns, Dogs, Swans, Lions – clearly do? The simple answer is \u2018they need a key forward like Ben King\u2019 and obviously that\u2019d help, likewise if Bobby Hill was back playing, but this feels a bit bigger than just one or two players. Collingwood is fine. But that may be it.<\/p>\n

This week: BYE<\/p>\n

McRae explains Daicos’ wing appearance | 07:13<\/p>\n

11. MELBOURNE (1-0, 112.1%)<\/p>\n

Last week: Ranked 15th, def St Kilda by 13 pts<\/p>\n

The Demons are fun! What a world! Arguably the biggest pleasant surprise of the weekend was Melbourne being involved in a shootout… and winning it. We were too cowardly to actually tip them against St Kilda, or to put them higher on our predicted ladder, even though a lot of the numbers we look at rated them higher than pretty much the entire footy media has. Our old mate Pythagoras\u2019 two strongest predictions<\/a> were the Bulldogs to improve (which looks great so far) and Melbourne to improve. Well, they sure looked better than a seven-win team on Sunday! We\u2019re not convinced any of the teams outside this ranking\u2019s top 10 will play finals, and we\u2019re not jumping off the Saints (who we tipped for 10th) just yet… but why can\u2019t the Dees win 11 or 12 games and sneak into the wildcard round? This week against Freo is a free hit, and in a way, this whole season is a free hit. That can only help them.<\/p>\n

This week: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Saturday 7:35pm<\/p>\n

‘Immense pride’ King kicks off new era | 08:14<\/p>\n

12. ST KILDA (0-2, 87.4%)<\/p>\n

Last week: Ranked 11th, lost to Melbourne by 13 pts<\/p>\n

In the big picture, the Saints are fine. They\u2019re not the finished product and still badly need Max King; we totally understand why Ross Lyon was pretty balanced and said they could be 2-0 right now. But they\u2019ve dropped two games to like types, with Collingwood and Melbourne looking like middle six teams, and the fixture stays tricky with games against GWS (away) and Brisbane over the next fortnight. Throw in consecutive Adelaide Oval games, where they almost never win, against Port Adelaide and Adelaide and there\u2019s a real risk they find themselves sitting 1-5 or even 0-6. It would probably be an unfair reflection of their quality but they have set themselves up for this. Saints fans may be thinking \u2018the media\u2019 is to blame for the pre-season hype – to be fair, we all agreed at the big secret pre-season meeting that we\u2019d go hard on the Saints because we\u2019re biased against them. Oops, shouldn\u2019t have mentioned that. Remember to delete this before publishing – but the club has pumped itself up. They asked to host that big Opening Round MCG game; they understand that as a smaller Victorian club they can\u2019t just be irrelevant, and they need to demand attention. That\u2019s probably the right thing to do to make the club richer and more successful in the years to come. But the risk was always short-term pain for long-term gain.<\/p>\n

This week: GWS at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm<\/p>\n

‘We’ll learn from this’ Lyon | 07:12<\/p>\n

13. CARLTON (1-1, 70.9%)<\/p>\n

Last week: Ranked 13th, def Richmond by 4 pts<\/p>\n

We heavily considered moving the Blues down, because absolutely nobody came out of Thursday night\u2019s game feeling good – not Carlton fans, not Richmond fans, and certainly not neutrals who made the regrettable decision to sit through it. It\u2019s incredible how predictable they are, fading away in the second half as always, and against the fittest and best teams they are going to be absolutely torn apart as they tire. They could still be 3-1, with winnable games against Melbourne and North Melbourne to come, though on the weekend both of those sides looked much more suited to this faster mode of footy 2026 is producing. The worst-case scenario would be sitting 1-3 heading into a pair of Thursday night games against Adelaide and Collingwood which they\u2019re already unlikely to win. At that point, they (and Michael Voss) will be the story. Don\u2019t say we didn\u2019t warn you.<\/p>\n

This week: BYE<\/p>\n

“We were targeted all week” | 09:08<\/p>\n

14. NORTH MELBOURNE (1-0, 168.7%)<\/p>\n

Last week: Ranked 16th, def Port Adelaide by 46 pts<\/p>\n

We don\u2019t want to go early on the Kangaroos based on one exciting home win – remember how we felt about North after they smashed Melbourne in Round 2 last year? – and it was kinda weird how Port Adelaide just allowed Alastair Clarkson\u2019s side to control the ball. That won\u2019t happen every week. But this was a game where the winner was going to come out of it eyeing a fast start to the season, and now with the Kangaroos facing West Coast, Essendon, Carlton and Richmond before Anzac Day (plus Brisbane in Gather Round), they\u2019re every chance of being 5-1. They have set themselves up nicely. More importantly, Tom Powell has become our favourite active footballer, because his goal song is Randy Orton\u2019s entrance theme (though we prefer the old one to Voices) and his favourite Pokemon is Lopunny (the cultured man\u2019s selection… look it up).<\/p>\n

This week: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Sunday 6:10pm<\/p>\n

Clarkson impressed by Roos resilience | 11:52<\/p>\n

15. PORT ADELAIDE (0-1, 59.3%)<\/p>\n

Last week: Ranked 12th, lost to North Melbourne by 46 pts<\/p>\n

So that stuff we said last week about them starting 4-0… that relied upon them being closer to the 2024 team than the 2025 one. The problem was they looked worse than either. Poor offensively and even more questionable defensively, they let the Kangaroos do what they wanted with ball in hand, in arguably the weekend\u2019s most disappointing loss. We wrote in the pre-season it wasn\u2019t necessarily the best thing for the club if they were contending for the wildcard spots in 2026, given their need for high draft picks to match bids for top talent over the next couple of years. But even the most \u2018tanking is OK\u2019-brained fan would\u2019ve been disappointed with Sunday. <\/p>\n

This week: Essendon at Adelaide Oval, Sunday 3:15pm<\/p>\n

‘Plenty of lessons’ – Carr | 06:20<\/p>\n

16. ESSENDON (0-1, 57.2%)<\/p>\n

Last week: Ranked 14th, lost to Hawthorn by 62 pts<\/p>\n

We already feel a bit silly expecting the Bombers to be OK this year. The Hawks will make a few teams look bad this year, but the Dons\u2019 defence was worse than ever on Friday night, and they are absolutely primed to get exposed by the faster ball movement we\u2019re seeing with the tweaked rules of the game. You can\u2019t be that disorganised and expect to be remotely competitive this season, so while it\u2019s not like anyone was realistically expecting them to contend for the finals, they absolutely have to show growth defensively through 2026. On the plus side, Port Adelaide looked just as bad as they did in Round 1, so maybe they can ease the pressure with a nice upset win?<\/p>\n

This week: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Sunday 3:15pm<\/p>\n

Scott sees positives despite drubbing | 10:49<\/p>\n

17. RICHMOND (0-1, 94.7%)<\/p>\n

Last week: Ranked 17th, lost to Carlton by 4 pts<\/p>\n

We\u2019re big fans of The Expected Score Respecter Adem Yze in this column, and he continued to win us over with his comments after Thursday night\u2019s narrow loss. Yze pointed out last year, when the Tigers had just produced a famous comeback to beat the Blues, that they had lost the game on expected score – and this year he effectively said they probably should\u2019ve lost last year, and probably should\u2019ve won this year. We love that he is focusing on the process over the results because that\u2019s absolutely what matters for a team in this position. Was it incredibly frustrating for the fanbase that poor goalkicking cost them another chance to ruin Carlton\u2019s season before it really starts? Sure. Does it actually matter in the big picture? No; it was a learning experience and they\u2019ll be better for it long-term.<\/p>\n

This week: Gold Coast at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm<\/p>\n

‘Not up to scratch’ Yze’s blunt verdict | 08:54<\/p>\n

18. WEST COAST EAGLES (0-1, 55%)<\/p>\n

Last week: Ranked 18th, lost to Gold Coast by 59 pts<\/p>\n

We reckon if you asked every (reasonable) Eagles fan pre-game if they would have taken a 10-goal away loss to Gold Coast, they would\u2019ve all said yes. Funnily enough on expected score it was even closer – something like a three or four-goal margin, thanks to the Suns\u2019 early accuracy, though the weird flow of the game means the stat isn\u2019t hugely useful here. It was a genuinely respectable showing after things threatened to get really ugly in the first half, and Milan Murdock is a fantastic story. He\u2019s the type of player West Coast should absolutely be taking a gamble on as they seek as much talent as possible. Yes, North looked pretty good beating Port, but the Eagles should feel they\u2019re a chance of beating any bottom six team at home if they\u2019re able to produce long periods of footy like Sunday\u2019s second half.<\/p>\n

This week: North Melbourne at Optus Stadium, Sunday 6:10pm<\/p>\n

McQualter: ‘Blown out of the park!’ | 05:57<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Welcome back to the Power Rankings. Neither of last year\u2019s Grand Finalists has started impressively, with a shared…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":544656,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[560],"tags":[638,64,63,55,639,85],"class_list":["post-544655","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-afl","tag-afl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-australian-football-league","tag-australianfootballleague","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/544655","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=544655"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/544655\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/544656"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=544655"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=544655"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=544655"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}